What Makes Teams Win - How Does Hamilton Rank?

Posted this before but its worth revisiting. Below is a table that lists the relevant statistics and their correlations with winning. Ie; Which stats/events have the most significant impact upon winning. The table is sorted in order of absolute strength of correlation.

Stat Win Correlation
Off Pass Yds/Att 0.61
Def Pass Yds/Att 0.47
Off Fumble Rate 0.46
Off Int Rate 0.45
Def FFumble Rate 0.41
Def Int Rate 0.39
Off Pen Rate. 0.37
Off Run Yds/Att 0.18
Def Run Yds/Att 0.04

So, where does Hamilton rank?

They're #2 as far as Offensive Passing Yards Per Attempt @ 8.9. (MTL is #1 with 9.2)
No surprise here, they're tied for last place with Edmonton in Defensive Passing Yards.
As far as offensive fumble rate, they've fumbled the most by far, 32 times, giving it up 17 times which is also worst in league.
Interceptions? Well documented in other threads. 18 is most for any QB, but as a team they rank 4th.
Defensive Forced Fumbles? They've taken it away 12 times. Once again, 4th in the league.
Defensive interceptions? 13. (Surprised! I can only recall a handful) 3rd worst in the league.
Can't get offensive vs. defensive penalties, but Hamilton was flagged 3rd most times for the 2nd most yards across the league.
Running the ball offensively? Tied for 4th in the league.
Stopping the run? 2nd last. No surprise here.

So in summary, in the areas that impact winning the most, they get an A+ in one area and a middling to absolute failing grade in all others. One dimensional ... George proved to be a passing guru ... But inept everywhere else!

My perception of the 2012 TiCat Season ... Threw the rock around like it was hot ... Couldn't defend the pass ... Gave up the ball more than they took it away ... Undisciplined when it came to penalties.

This team defense lacked talent and experienced coaching. I don't agree that Defense wins championship but in the CFL you can't win on the road if your defense is horrible and the reason the Ticats are out is because of their horrible 1-8 record on the road.

Surprised this thread hasn't got more pin action since so many posters know what it takes to win games & championships.

Run the ball. Stop the run. Defence wins championships. Blah, blah, blah ...

What sample are these correlations from? 2012 CFL regular season to date? Last 3 regular seasons? Last 10 regular seasons?

The correlations are from Advanced NFL Statistics, which I posted the link before.

The CFL specific stats are for games through week 18.

Is that okay with you?

The numbers are the numbers. The correlations to event positive result impact are accurate. It's all here as posted previously.

[url=http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/what-makes-teams-win-4.html]http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07 ... win-4.html[/url]

The author of the advancednflstats article doesn't say so explicitly, but a glance at the url and the comments for part 1 show that his sample is NFL seasons 2002 to 2007. I don't think it's valid to assume that correlations based on NFL seasons 2002-2007 are generalizable to the CFL over that same period, or the CFL today. They may not be generalizable even to the NFL today. Thanks for the link though, it's still an interesting read. I especially liked the fact that in part 1 he reminds everyone that correlation and causation are not the same thing. If you find or crunch similar correlations for a sample of recent CFL seasons, I'd be even more interested. :wink:

Agree that they're not perfect. Disagree that you can't draw conclusions from information gathered from '02 - '07 to today's NFL. The league has just become even more pass oriented since that time. Same for the CFL. If the numbers said "drop kicks" were most significantly important, then I'd question it of course. But the numbers show the importance of passing offense & passing Defense & turnovers which I think are still the primary drivers of success today. Perhaps & probably more so.

May be semantics, but Id' say took the ball away less, than they gave it up. :wink:

Love stats! Thanks FenderGuy69! Interesting stuff.