What do you think are the odds of getting a 2 point convert?

What are the odds of getting a 2 point convert?

Are there any stats out there of the actual success rate?

I'd say it's 50/50 at best. I don't have any stats but I know I've seen them fail more than I've seen them succeed.

In the NFL, I would surmise it's close to 50-50. I don't think the CFL rate would be significantly higher because you're attempting from 5 yards away, not from the 2 in the NFL. That cuts down on the RB rushes in the CFL game signficantly -- QBs are prone to bootleg it when runs are made to convert.

Footballcommentary.com cites a 40% success rate in the NFL. That's in line with my estimate. The small endzone really causes problems for teams inside the five.

http://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm

Oski Wee Wee,

Hhmmm...interesting.

So if it's harder to get in in the the NFL (by virtue of the smaller endzone) and they're at 40%, then you would think it would be higher in the CFL.

And since being scrimmaged at the 5 would lead to a pass in most circumstances, and most CFL QBs have a completion rate of over 50% you'd think that chances are pretty good you'd score.

I'd love for the CFL statisticians to come up with this stat.

I've got no evidence, but it's probably a safe bet that the completion rate for most QBs isn't 50% when you get into the red zone.

You're going to allow, even encourage a team to complete five yard passes all day in 2nd and 10 or 1rst and 15 situations most places on the field, but you're not going to give them anything past the line of scrimmage when it's at the 5.

If the completion rate for 2 point conversions was 50% or greater, you'd see a lot more attempts.

Well no, the reason I think you don't see a lot more attempts is because the one point conversion is almost a certainty where the 2 point conversion is not.

You bring up a good point about the defence allowing a small gain on second and long, but that's because the defence is focused specifically.

On the two point convert the defence does not have that luxury. They have to stop everything. Even a short two or three yard pass can be run in.

All good points and food for thought. Not knowing that actual success rate is killing me now.

If you're in a "most points wins, winner
takes all" game, and you're given the choice between a 99.9% chance of having one point, or a x% chance of having two points, at what value of x are you going to take the chance and go for two. The gears in my head dedicated to stats are locked by about 20 years of rust, but I'd think that around 51% you'd start thinking about it.

The fact that we see so few attempts suggest to me that it's a low percentage play.

It's also predicated on the time of game, the point differential, the momentum of the offence, the aggressiveness of the coach, etc. There is actually a formula that pretty much dictates when you go for 2.

In hindsight, we didn't recover the onside kick, so the point is moot. I still say "go for the win".

Ya know, I was thinking the exact same thing, however it doesn't suggest to me that it's a low percentage play (although it should), it just reinforces the notion that football coaches are a very conservative lot when it comes to any risk taking.