Week 1 Betting Forum

Anyone capping the games? We are new here so let us know if there is a better place for this discussion. Here's what we think this week against the spread (full version is available on our site, http://www.stocklemonblog.com/2013/06/our-week-1-cfl-picks-because-we-need.html)

Winnipeg +4 1/2 over Montreal

This is a horrible bet, right off the bat. We hate Winnipeg's prospects this season, and Montreal is a rather good team with consistent quarterback play (Anthony Calvillo). But Winnipeg is opening a new stadium in this 2013 CFL opener, and we can't shake that fact. The CFL is a weird game, and things like new stadiums opening up is a big deal. So we're going with the points and what we think might be the worst team in the CFL this year. Prove us wrong, Bombers!

Toronto -4 1/2 over Hamilton

The defending CFL champs open up against a Hamilton team that is coming off a disappointed season AND offseason. Henry Burris and Co. folded amid realistically optimistic expectations last season, and this year, their best player (Chris Williams) wants no part in the team. Toronto wasn't great last year, but if you can only remember two CFL players from this meandering blog entry, make them Ricky Ray and Chad Owens, the best QB/WR tandem in the league. They hit their stride late after a 9-9 regular season, and we like the champs to come out firing on all cylinders in the home opener.

BC +3 over Calgary

We subscribe to the theory that one should take BC any time they get points, even if it's against last year's Grey Cup runner up. Which it is. Travis Lulay could start for several NFL teams, but instead he's quarterbacking north of the border. And after a disappointing playoff exit, we like Lions to storm into Calgary and try to set things right in Week 1. Calgary's quarterback situation is in relative flux (they are going with the oft-injured Drew Tate again), and we think there's just enough of a clusterfudge in Calgary for the Lions to knock them down a peg.

Saskatchewan +1 over Edmonton

This was the toughest one for us, but we're going with the visiting Rough Riders to beat the home team, mainly because we think Darian Durant and Saskatchewan underachieved last year and should be better in 2013. It's hard to think too much of Edmonton, who struggled after the ill-advised Ricky Ray trade (and watched their former QB hoist the Grey Cup), and we still have little faith in their quarterbacking situation. But both of these teams were not particularly good last year, and we're having a helluva time getting a read on either of them. That's what Week 1 is for, we suppose.

Any thoughts?

What's the Money Line ??

Haven't seen the money lines on these, at least not on Bovada... we're trying to pick all the games against the spread this year and see where we end up doing that. Anyone else have action on the games?

[url=http://www.bet365.com/lite/#!clt=9994;op=4;cid=12;cpid=12-20320992-48-1-36-0-0-0-1-0-0-4305-0-0-1-0-0-0-0]http://www.bet365.com/lite/#!clt=9994;o ... -1-0-0-0-0[/url] https://sports.bodog.eu/mobile/#coupon/CFL
Winnipeg +4 1/2 over Montreal

This is a horrible bet, right off the bat.

And you want me to click on your blog and take your betting advice, correct? And in the rest of the post you admit to throwing logic and common sense out the window and making this pick on fly on the pants emotion.

In no way am I recommending you take my advice. I really just wanted to get a discussion going to see what other people were betting.

Still think Winnipeg pulls an upset tonight in the new stadium though. Just not something that I can quantify with stats or anything more logical than a gut feeling.

Right or wrong, the good news is the game is TONIGHT!

You do not need the 1/2 or .5 spread just a full point. However this is not a betting form. There are a kazzillion on the
internet. We pick for fun against each other for bragging rights.
However real spread SHOULD BE
Winnipeg +6
Hamilton +3
Calgary +3
Edmonton/ Sask Even (0)

Football is exciting enough. I don't need to put money on the game to make it more exciting. Being able to predict games subject to handicap lines makes one no more smarter about football than if one would just watch the games and analyze what's going on.

Predicting straight up winners in say a pickem pool takes a little skill. Some matchups are definitely easier than others. But handicapping is a coin flip. There is no skill. As the house sees it, that's the whole point of handicapping. To make it as close to a 50/50 chance as possible. The amount of points given to the underdog has nothing to do with how mismatched they are or how many points the dog is expected to lose by. It is solely the amount of incentive to get even money bet on both sides of the ticket. The closer the betting is to 50/50 the more of the rake the house is guaranteed to keep. It is DESIGNED to be a coin flip. Period. Don't kid yourself. Handicapping is DESIGNED to remove all skill from picking winners. This is your math lesson for the day.

Before anyone takes a crap on my head for this, I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade. I'm not trying to be cheeky or put down handicappers. To each his own. But seriously, the best mathematicians in the world are bankers and bookies. Because taking free money is a great incentive to learn math. This is not a cheeky joke. Handicapping is 99.9944% coin flip. Statistic analysis backs it up.

I'm just sayin'.

To prove your point, we lost our first game on a worthless rouge with 25 seconds left. So yeah, coin flip sounds about right.

Was the above +6 mentioned really offered somewhere, or was that just opinion? Egg on our face if it was available.

Also, I am new to the CFL betting game, and if this isn't a great place for these conversations (it sounds like maybe it is not), does anyone know of a solid CFL betting forum? Most I've found are sparse.

Thanks all, and nobody how you enjoy your football, betting or no betting, at least we can all enjoy football again.

This is as good as any place. There are some debby downers in every group. But if you want to keep handicapping the games and sharing them I don't see a problem with it.

Absolutely. :rockin:

Got the Argos tonight at -3. I'm a Cats fan though so even if I lose I win either way 8)

Well, at least you won the bet lol. We had a 2-2 week after the Riders romp today, so hopefully we can pick it up next week. Looking ahead the toughest games for us to cap are when teams play each other in back to back weeks, especially if we bet the wrong team in Week 1. Leaning Als over Bombers next week but will wait to see the spread.