Close to, but not quite, true.
Toronto clinched 1st place, last season on Sept. 15th, with 57 days ahead before they had to play a meaningful game (The Eastern Final). They lost @ WPG on Sept. 29th, but did win their other 4 last regular season games, all against 3rd, 4th, and 5th place teams.
I would agree. Maas is a fiery competitive guy and the Als have not been looking good recently. Probably a combination of injuries and other teams improving and being hungrier for wins. And he’s left Fajardo in some games like against Ottawa where it looked like he had some rib trouble. Als can’t afford to get complacent. They may rest a couple of guys or rotate some in/out the last couple of weeks but nothing major. They’ll already have the two weeks to rest before the eastern final.
If you clinched 1st place, you play the backups.
Why take a chance at losing a starter?
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I think that’s true if you clinch first place at Thanksgiving and only have a game or two left. When you clinch with a month plus before the playoff game you need to play them some. How you manage that is the big debate - game on game off, play half games, etc?
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Also not enough roster spots to rest all starters.
Also the majority if not all of a teams backups are usually special teamers so you would either all have them pulling double duty or replacing them on the roster as well . Simply not enough bodies available to rest everybody .
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BC won 10 in a row and won the grey cup back in 2011
Take this for what it’s worth but we won our last 2 Grey Cups at BC Place. 
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Here are the mathematical odds, assuming all games have a 50/50 chance of going either way and there are no more ties:
If we can go 3-0, we have a 94% chance of making the playoffs, either in the East or by crossover.
If we go 2-1, the chance reduces to 31% irrespective of which game we lose.
1-2 or 0-3 and we are out.
It works out to a 23% chance overall as things stand today, before the Winnipeg game.
The odds of going through by crossover are slightly better than going through in the East,. If we finish in second place in the East, the third place team could also qualify to cross over.
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This is very interesting. What’s the math that gets you to 90+ if we win out??
94% chance? it’s more like a 10% chance, they don’t control their own destiny, the rely on going undefeated and other teams losing.
Even if they go 3 - 0, the Argos could go 2 - 1 and the RBs 1 - 2 and they won’t make the east playoffs.
For the West the Lions could go 2 - 1 and the Riders 2 - 1
I don’t call that a 94% chance of the Ticats making the playoffs, I call that a long shot
Just win
Bolieve in the Boveralls
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The statistics game is fun, but IMO our chances are very low. I am in 2025 mode now, wondering what changes and non-changes will be happening this winter, and look fwd to that discussion.
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No question about that. However, I believe the word “very” will no longer apply if the underdog TiCats can pull off another unexpected victory, tonight. Tigers, Eat 'em Raw!
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I’m telling ya , I’m telling everybody in fact that this will be coming down to the final game of the season in Ottawa . It will be a classic winner take all playoff play in game for the winner . The loser (Ottawa) goes home for the season or at best a western crossover and we move on to play them Anchors in the ESF . BOOK IT !!!
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The stats and analysis above were all based on the assumption that every game was a 50/50 toss up and it was equally likely that either team would win. If that was true Vegas wouldn’t need point spreads.
I think my perspective on the remainder of the Ticats 2024 season will take a very strong position at about 10pm tonight. If we beat Winnipeg I will be fully confident that we will make the playoffs even though we still require help. If we lose, my expectation is that we will miss the playoffs even though we will still be mathematically alive.
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If we go 3-0, that means we will have beaten OTT in week 21.
Let’s suppose TOR loses to WPG, and OTT loses to MTL in week 19 - that’s a 25% chance mathematically, but probably a 50% chance realistically, based on the team’s records.
TOR plays OTT in week 20, they can’t both win, HAM would be through in the east.
Similarly, in the west, BC plays SKS in week 19, they can’t both win.
If SKS win, then BC would need to go 2-0 in the other two games, including a win against MTL.
If BC win, SKS would have to lose both of their other 2 games for HAM to crossover.
So a SKS win over BC which is probably better than 50%, gives us a good chance of making the crossover.
The odds are better than you think if we go 3-0
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No matter how you look at it, Hamilton doesn’t control their own destiny. They can go 3 - 0 and still miss the playoffs.
It’s likely going to come down to the final game in Ottawa and the odds are 50%
While I understand it’s not guaranteed, I am wholly confident that 3-0 gets us in. There are so many scenarios that can play out to get us in and none of them would be crazy upsets.
I also understand that 2-1gives us a chance, but I think it probably leaves us on the outside looking in. The only scenario that 2-1 gets us in is Toronto going 0-3 and while that’s possible, it’s a big ask.
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Win our next 5 games and see what happens
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