The XFL 3.5 and 2023 Plans

I doubt any ABC games will drop below a million. ESPN will average around 750k or so, 400k on ESPN2 and FX is a complete mystery. The USFL will likely be lower than last year following the trend of the original USFL, WLAF, and AFL on NBC years. Whether it's by 5% or 50% I guess we'll find out.

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Danny Garcia on the long term future of the XFL, 3-5 year plan. Nice amount of media covering this event.

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So what is the consensus on how long either of these leagues last? Anyone want to throw out guesses as to when either one of them go under?

I need to preface my statement with - this is not coming from the "echo chamber" I know I am going to catch hell for saying this, but even as the quality is lower I think that I would bet on the USFL lasting longer than the XFL. With the USFL they built a mutant low budget clone of the CFL on US Soil, they have the godfather (NFL) guiding them and backing them, they are owned by Fox. To me Fox ownership is one of the keys from a financial standpoint. That said from my layman's perspective of accounting and finance, losses under probably $50 million usd, Fox can absorb that like the CFL absorbs their annual losses. I don't think that the XFL/Redbird will take that kind of financial hit for more than three years.

USFL goes 6 years the XFL makes it 3 seasons.

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Depends on how Redbird approaches it. If they are hoping that they can fudge the numbers to get someone to buy them out they might hang on longer than they should.

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Being that Redbird is privately owned, this could be Gerry Cardinale's hobby indefinitely if he wanted it to be. Like I mentioned before, look at the Russian billionaires paying WNBA players $1 million to play in front of 750 fans in a high school gym. The USFL has shareholders to answer to, and if they feel the USFL brings more pain than pleasure they'll be a push to cut the fat. Look how WWE stock dropped when Vince announced the emergence of XFL 2.0. Vince could have absorbed the losses personally, but his WWE stock would have suffered immeasurably.

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And just like clockwork Danny Garcia talks about the XFL long-term plan. Surprising amount of media at this event which is a good thing. I think people really don't appreciate the value of Redbird Capital running the show here. Gerry Cardinale may not be a flashy name, but he's made some major moves behind the scenes. Dany Garcia XFL Chairwoman & Owner Sends a Message to all "Skeptical" XFL Fans Out There!!! - YouTube

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It did not have to be Brock Purdy though, as agents were already pitching such lines in all the time players have had agents.

For every Brock Purdy, do they ever count the number of those drafted fifth-round or lower or undrafted who wash out? I don't think so.

The geographic pitch for sake of tape and other advantages is already stronger.

Also I am not sure how USFL deals work, for there a union represents the players in contrast to the XFL that has a separate program just for quarterbacks.

Now the pitch can and does work all the same of course, but I don't agree with you on this "Brock Purdy" impact on a sustained basis for what was already being pitched before. There will be another one here and there before too long as even more wash out.

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Balderdash if there are not ample fans in the stands and solid, sustained television ratings even with all the enhanced and biased promotion for the USFL most especially.

And you are in the echo chamber for at least the USFL 2.0 no doubt with your spreadsheet and prototype theory from manufacturing again, but we obviously disagree.

We agree more than not on the XFL 3.5, which already does have the better players overall because it also must stand on its own without a major media conglomerate and its shell game subsidies via its top client the NFL.

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And I see it completely the opposite. It's the XFL that has private shareholders to whom to answer and it is not a hobby league.

The USFL will continue on, already not able to sustain itself as it has been as a hub league, with continued subsidy and support as long as Fox and the NFL want it that way. Of course that game only goes on so long when the public does not buy your product however much some vocal social media echo chamber claims to be ever so loyal. Customers are buyers not wannabes in ANY business.

Any business owner who has known all the "tire-kickers" knows it well.

The fact that you downplay any of that reality to date once again is beyond comic and delusional.

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She does great public relations. Marketing? Not so much - ESPN certainly is not following any lead from the XFL for its marketing in stark contrast to Fox's shameless pitches for that crap USFL hub league even during high-priced time during NFL playoff games.

C'mon now stop with the early fawning too?

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Since Redbird isn't a publicly traded company, ol Gerry could cook the books and use the profits of AC Milan, Yes network, Fenway Group and some of its other properties to pad the XFL coffers. Not saying they will, but there's a better chance they could. Networks owning a sports league isn't exactly new. XFL 1.0, the AFL, MLL, and X games were all owned at one point, at least in part by NBC and ESPN. When was the last time you saw any of those properties on television.

My theory is not based on emotion or echo chamber - my theory is based on the track record of the owner and shadow owner and how long the NFL/Fox held onto the NFL Europe adventure a couple of decades back. I don't think they are going to pull the trigger and admit defeat after two or three years - I just don't think that those two outfits are wired that way especially if the losses are in the range of what the CFL takes year in year out. You are right that if there are no fans they will pull the plug but I don't think that the USFL is on a short leash. Not an echo chamber thing but looking at how the NFL and Fox worked this thing last go around and it took them a decade and a half of losses to pull the plug. I don't know why this time would be after a year or two. Especially if Fox/USFL can achieve CFL level losses on the financial side of things, once again if they can get CFL level financial losses I think the USFL sticks around for a while.

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Can't really compare the two because of the different set up. FOX gets the money from advertising but not the ticket sales as far as I know. They can focus on the TV Production, let the GM's coaching staff worry about the football level of play, and occasionally they send a stern memo to the stadium operators about getting the crowds up.

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Yes, but private investors demand a return however they cook their own books.

And even publicly-traded private entities, including in particular global multinationals like Fox, have their pet projects and plenty of accounting gimmickry not scrutinized by all shareholders and occasionally only identified later when and if any given laws have been broken.

Then it's slap on the hand, patch, rinse and repeat, "We won't do it again" and the like.

Your assumption does not hold water well beyond merely this matter.

Your theory is YOUR theory and has plenty of your own personal arbitrary assumptions in it. Stop with the "third person narrative" excuse as well especially when YOU don't make that explicit if the case. You post here without qualification or quoting somebody, it's coming from YOU.

No spring league other than NFL pet project NFL Europa has lasted more than two seasons.

And I disagree on the exceptionalism you afford the USFL for whatever reason including your repeated choice of the awful prototype and manufacturing analogies.

Now you can go on and on about that as you have for months, but the rest of the world will wait to see who shows and watches and who does not as is the standard for any sports business and media company otherwise.

Then it's up to Fox and the puppet master behind the curtain to decide what to do or not to do if it's not a success as a regular league not in the definition you and the echo chamber concoct for it.

And yes, the exceptionalism including from YOU indeed does come from the echo chamber whether you know it or not, for that's what they do in an echo chamber for any given cause in disregard of some basic realities.

"Well this is different and evades all the normal business rules because you see..." and all that HOOEY!

We'll see who shows and watches or not and leave it at that even though YOU may have already written that magical "success" script yet again that you also imply is totally rational as if it's part of also your magic, infalliable spreadsheet perhaps just like also after you moved the goal posts in your later comments after the end of the season.

If the USFL 2.0 for all those outside of the Spring Football Echo Chamber is another dud like last season, but they have no pandemic or whatever excuses to blame again, it's no success by the standard of the rest of the businesses in the world.

And we are waiting for more than a word or banner, and more ACTION and evidence of great marketing by ESPN much as I noted was missing above before they did the uniforms promotion.

Maybe they are ramping up finally at ESPN and who knows what has held them up again like usual unlike for all their NCAA CRAP, but marketing is NOT a Chair's core job in a large company.

A large business hires people and has signed on with a media company like ESPN to do all the marketing work, aside from whatever public appearances and around them by any given executive, which they had not been doing on ESPN and certainly don't match Fox's promotion of the USFL.

Get with it already you bums at ESPN.

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Well said indeed.

And also though there are lessons to reflect upon from the NFL Europe experience to the tune of the millions lost by the NFL, only in the last decade paying increasing dividends via the far higher interest in the UK and now in Germany and away the NFL goes longer term given a growing war now in Europe that many still forget before they start talking NFL expansion to Europe again, comparing the media market of the '90s to early 00's to that of our '20s is almost like comparing our omnipresent, Orwellian digital experience now to the days of dial-up internet on a desktop computer.

Fans have more choices than ever now including in particular the youth with far less focus on any given activity unlike those of us circa about 40 plus, but the essentials of the gate and viewership ratings in the success formula in media have not changed for any given sports or entertainment business.

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Dude i said it was my theory and I owned it I have told you that I don't think that the NFL and Fox got into this for a year or two. Fox has been broadcasting spring football for 3 years this will be the 4th. That is fact. I have no inside information - I have said that - It is my guess that these leagues will last that long. I have never said anything about the quality of the USFL being good. I have simply stated that I think that those in power are not going to pull the plug in a year. This is year #2 for the USFL on Fox - We all get it that you HATE the hub league and that anyone who says anything about this subject and what they say does not conform to your world view, is going to get blasted with both barrels. We also got the message that you are the only one on here allowed to express an opinion on this subject without getting hammered - That said I merely gave my prediction as to how long I think the leagues will last and that opinion differed with yours. Come to think of it isn't that what this board is for? Free flow of ideas do discuss subjects in a civil manner maybe? Whether you agree with them or not?

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We have to agree to disagree. All you do is return back to your original view from months ago with your flawed analogies at that after going around and about as if otherwise. You are simply resigned to your view and methods no matter the facts, which also are changing and will change mind you given the renewed frontier for each league that is at hand.

But we do agree more on the XFL 3.5.

And then with another party go figure I agree more with him on the USFL 2.0 but not on the XFL 3.5.

Like you wrote, it's a free exchange here.

The proof will be in the pudding of PAID attendance and media ratings in the spring. That's any sports or entertainment business whatever magic you think applies, much as you describe over and over, for the USFL including when sums are lost.

Sums cannot be lost endlessly in any endeavour. The patience of an investor in a larger venture often runs out before the money does too unlike with a degenerate gambler, so the chips are cashed in earlier.

But just as you have done for months, I don't see how you won't use different measuring devices to conform to YOUR concocted definition of success for the USFL, and only the USFL, just like you did last year with this "they made it to season two though" nonsense as if the achievement were borne of underlying business success, which you know it was not.

Go on you do you there too but there is nothing "unemotional" or "rational" about that approach for sure as you also present yourself fallaciously or third person or whatever your angle of argument for what are ultimately your views.

There is no need to repeat ourselves where we clearly disagree.

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Okay you want Facts
Fox Market Cap 17.67 billion USD
Fox needs cheap programing in the spring
this will be the USFLs 2nd season
last year the USFL ran out of one stadium
this is the 4th consecutive season that Fox will have broadcast spring football
in the USA this is the 5th year that spring football has been broadcast by either Fox, CBS, NBC or ABC/ESPN
Someone or a group of people at Fox have decided there is value in keeping the USFL around at least for another season.
NFL Europe was owned by Fox and the NFL it lasted for more that a decade
the USFL played in Birmingham and Canton not much plane travel
one hour of scripted TV content can cost $3 million an hour
40+ games x around 3 hours per game is about 120 hours of content for Fox and NBC
MLB runs the Arizona Fall League to prep players for the Majors and Minors -
NBA has the G League and has spent 2 decades building that league. It is close to profitable.
EPL dumps money down stream into the lower leagues of the English Football Pyramid

My theories - built on estimates
the USFL has pretty much the same cost structure as the CFL
rumours are the CFL loses between $20 to $30 million per year
In my estimation - I don't think that the USFL lost over $50 million last year - I really doubt that they lost $250 million usd like the AAF did in 2019.
Some people put the USFL loses for last year at close to breaking even
The CFL has been hanging on for years with rich Canadians footing the bill for the losses.

Theory - built from the information above - I think that Fox and by proxy the NFL will be willing to absorb losses in the $20 million dollar range and keep the USFL alive, if it is providing content content hours at this price point. As I have said before I think that the NFL likes having a "Tape" League around especially if it feeds players into the NFL camps and I also think that for that price point Fox/NFL will keep this league alive for six years. I do not think that this year is the last year of the USFL.

The XFL even through it will probably be "higher quality" on ESPN/ABC - I am guessing that after three years of losses RedBird moves onto another project.

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