The Stretch Drive - By The Numbers

Here's where things stand as far as the stretch drive & push for the playoffs within the CFL's Eastern Division.

Hamilton has 9 games remaining. 3 on the road against teams with a .382 winning percentage. 4 against The West with a winning percentage of .661. 3 of 4 of them at home at Tim Hortons Field. Overall, their remaining opponents have a winning percentage of .416.

Toronto has 8 games remaining. Also with only 3 on the road against teams with a .600 winning percentage. The Argos face Western Division opponents 3 more times, twice on the road, with a winning percentage of .733. Overall the Argos face challengers with a .418 winning percentage.

In their remaining 8 games, Montreal plays 5 of them on the road against opponents that have a .355 winning percentage. They face 3 Western teams, twice at home, with a winning percentage of .800. Overall, the Als face teams with an overall winning percentage of .390.

Lastly, Ottawa has 8 games remaining split equally at home & on the road. Their road opponents have a winning percentage of .481. They face 3 more Western Division opponents, two of them on the road, with a winning percentage of .648. Overall, the RedBlacks opponents have a winning percentage of .411.

I believe the overall schedule for the Eastern Division is in Hamilton's favour. The TiCats have a game in hand against their 3 division rivals. 6 games at home. No more long road trips as they only travel as far as Winnipeg.

Splitting their remaining games against the West brings them to 4 & 9. Win your homes games against your division rivals brings you to 7 & 11 which quite possibly is enough to get them into the Playoffs. If fortunate, they can steal one or both on the road in Toronto or go 3 for 4 against The West & that for sure will secure them a playoff spot in The Eastern Division.

Week 11 First Place Probabilities

East Divison
Team Probability
Toronto 51.9%
Hamilton 36.1%
Montreal 11.1%
Ottawa 0.9%

Week 10 First Place Probabilities

East Divison
Team Probability
Hamilton 51.1%
Toronto 42.2%
Montreal 5.6%
Ottawa 1.1%

[url=] ... ear-on-top[/url]

TORONTO -- A computer simulation model is used to calculate the probabilities of any CFL team finishing first in its division.

The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game)
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first. For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

We may have caught a bit of a break if Durant doesn't play on Sunday but the Cats need a Win big time and with nine games remaining the Cats must really turn the tide on the season even in the poor East division this year or they could be practicing for next season soon.

Montreal and Toronto are making a run at the right time and Hamilton better get on their horse and keep up or they will be out the door with Ottawa soon in the East and get bumped by a crossover team from the West.

The Cats should look at every game from here on in as a must Win or they are done or could be!!

I agree. It's crunch time guys!