Two wins over Toronto really helped to clarify the playoff scenarios for the Tiger-Cats (6-5). Up by three games over TOR and with the season series guaranteed, it is difficult to imagine us finishing any worse than second in the East. (HAM schedule: CAL, @BC, BC, @TOR, @OTT, OTT, MTL)
I calculate the “magic number” for finishing ahead of TOR ( 3-8 ) at four: any combination of Ticat wins and Argo losses equalling four or higher assures us of beating them in the standings. (TOR schedule: SSK, @CAL, @BC, HAM, MTL, @MTL, @OTT)
In theory MTL ( 3-8 ) has a better chance of finishing ahead of us, assuming they can claim the tiebreaker by beating us by 40 points or more in our head-to-head game at the end of the season. They would still need to win two more games than we do in their remaining schedule (BC, @WPG, SSK, CAL, @TOR, TOR, @HAM). They do have some momentum on their side, but could lose it if they succumb to the pressure of playing Johnny Heisman over the proven winner they have found in Pipkin.
That leaves OTT (6-5) as our competition. They have clearly been headed downhill in recent weeks, losing back-to-back against MTL and BC. And I think OTT has the toughest remaining schedule in the East: @SSK, EDM, WPG, @EDM, HAM, @HAM, TOR. It may come down to our head-to-head games late in the season, but there’s a good chance we could finish ahead of them even if we split those two to give OTT the season series.
If OTT finishes poorly, our toughest competition in the playoffs could come from the Western cross-over team (likely WPG or BC).