The playoff picture

Two wins over Toronto really helped to clarify the playoff scenarios for the Tiger-Cats (6-5). Up by three games over TOR and with the season series guaranteed, it is difficult to imagine us finishing any worse than second in the East. (HAM schedule: CAL, @BC, BC, @TOR, @OTT, OTT, MTL)

I calculate the “magic number” for finishing ahead of TOR ( 3-8 ) at four: any combination of Ticat wins and Argo losses equalling four or higher assures us of beating them in the standings. (TOR schedule: SSK, @CAL, @BC, HAM, MTL, @MTL, @OTT)

In theory MTL ( 3-8 ) has a better chance of finishing ahead of us, assuming they can claim the tiebreaker by beating us by 40 points or more in our head-to-head game at the end of the season. They would still need to win two more games than we do in their remaining schedule (BC, @WPG, SSK, CAL, @TOR, TOR, @HAM). They do have some momentum on their side, but could lose it if they succumb to the pressure of playing Johnny Heisman over the proven winner they have found in Pipkin.

That leaves OTT (6-5) as our competition. They have clearly been headed downhill in recent weeks, losing back-to-back against MTL and BC. And I think OTT has the toughest remaining schedule in the East: @SSK, EDM, WPG, @EDM, HAM, @HAM, TOR. It may come down to our head-to-head games late in the season, but there’s a good chance we could finish ahead of them even if we split those two to give OTT the season series.

If OTT finishes poorly, our toughest competition in the playoffs could come from the Western cross-over team (likely WPG or BC).

Well done ExPat!

(HAM schedule: CAL, @BC, BC, @TOR, @OTT, OTT, MTL)
I expect at minimum to go at least 4 and 3 with this schedule, with a great chance at 5 and 2 or better

(HAM schedule: CAL, @BC, BC, @TOR, @OTT, OTT, MTL)

If the Cats play to their potential and don’t self-destruct, then ALL of those teams are beatable. Although they will need to execute near flawlessly to take out the Stamps.

Cats should end the season with 11 wins.

There’s absolutely 5 wins there for the taking.

4 max

Less than 4 is a failure. Not sure 3 wins the East either.

Sweeping 2 more back to backs is asking a lot. BC is almost always a tough win on the road. Beating Thorpe’s defense twice is a nice thought but…

I agree it's very hard to sweep those back to backs.

I actually have a feeling we'll beat Calgary.

Tor or sweep BC

Split BC, split OTT, TOR and MTL .

I agree with everything except what I bolded underlined. Yesterday Reilly only completed 68% of his passes. Threw 3 TD passes, 1 INT, had a fumble, was sacked 3 times and averaged just over 5 yards per rush. That is no where near flawless. In contrast, yesterday Masoli completed 72% of his passes, threw 4 TD passes, 0 INT’s, was sacked once and average over 7 yards per carry.

Reilly’s rating is 106.8 while Masoli’s is 99.9 and BLM has a rating of 107.1, But with Big Ted back next week, we can put a lot of pressure on him.

Edmonton played Calgary…the best D in the league and it isn’t even close.

We played Toronto.

Reilly’s performance would edge out Masolis IMO based on the competition.

Having said that our D is much better than Edmonton’s… He shouldn’t need to do more to beat Calgary than Reilly did.

Doesn’t matter who the opponent is Crash. Any team can beat another team on any given day. I stand by my statement.

But when you’re comparing performances by 2 QBs… The opponent absolutely matters…

Its a long season, I wouldnt count on a single win or loss.

Remember what happened right before we took on Sask, we were flying high and they were not. We crashed.

Take it one game at a time, a lot has to do with how we match up against the opponent over what the records are.

Teams like B.C. and Ottawa may start peaking at the wrong time for us.

Beat Stumps, lose @BC, run table

Easy. Let’s take it one game at a time.

The playoff picture is even clearer than I thought, apparently. According to Sports Club Stats (whoever that is), these are the probabilities of each team making the playoffs:

HAM 99.6%
OTT 97.4%
TOR 8.9%
MTL 4%

CAL 100%
SSK 97.9%
EDM 94.6%
WPG 68.3%
BC 29.5%

Essentially they are saying that 5 of the 6 spots are virtually locked up, with 6-7 games left in the season. The other spot is likely to go to WPG, with only BC having a realistic chance of unseating them.

Must be discouraging for those other teams. Gotta say, I know how it feels.

Mathematically, Toronto could still win 10 games, and based on the combinations of games still to be played, there are scenarios where they could win first in the East with a record as bad as 7-10-1.

Mathematically, it's also still possible for Montreal to win 10 or to win the East with a record as bad as 7-10-1, but the matchups are much less favorable for this.

Toronto’s schedule is tougher than ours going forward. And losing to us twice already/the Green Riders and BC continuing to string wins together, is basically their 2018 playoff death knell, IMO

I’m not saying I expect them to come out ahead of us, I’m just saying it’s too early to count chickens.