Hypothetical question - or maybe question - So what is the number that a spring league would have to come up with to get a merger going? How much money for TV for the CFL to push a merger forward. Right wrong or otherwise once someone puts enough zero's onto the end of their offer to you the deal is done.
If the XFL and ESPN have good numbers in the spring - and Genius Sports has data to back up the financials for a horizontal merger between the XFL and CFL what is the number? CFL current TV deal is $37 million usd. Does $80 million move the needle? $120 million usd? I don't know if any of those numbers are realistic but I am just curious as to what everyone thinks is the number.
I don't even think they have to actually merge. If The Rock went up to Ambrosie (obviously it's much more complicated than that) and offered 600k American per game, 4 games per team for a total of 36 games, it would cost around 21.6 million USD. Round it up to 25 million if they want to do any kind of All star game etc. But this would be after an undetermined number of years of XFL doing well ratings wise. CFL is fairly conservative and wouldn't want to damage their brand.
And such a positive result with success with the public at the gate and on screens, anything but close and I don't see it after merely one season in everybody's haste including especially that Spring Football Echo Chamber clamoring for mergers before the leagues even start anew, is merely ONE key only AFTER a whole lot of logistics and operations are worked out as for any new business let alone sports league relaunch.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves on the XFL 3.5.
At least the XFL 3.5 managed to avoid the dreaded hub league status and brand of that trash other NFL pet project league so as to restart after what is at least an enterprise with far better funding and expertise than the XFL 2.0.
I bring this up because the the CFL was talking to Redbird Capital for for 8 months - It is not like the CFL is flush with cash when those talks were happening. The CFL and the XFL were talking and Larry/MLSE probably has a number in mind for something like this to take place - pretty sure that Genius Sports has a number as they set pieces in place for the summer broadcasting.
Not like the CFL is printing money - yes there is 100 years of history but there is also 50 years of bleeding money and teams folding and the league having to run teams because the owner walked away. Someone has a number written down, there is always a number written down. And yes this question is predicated on things breaking right for the XFL - question remains what is the CFL's number? What would they make a deal for?
I'd even go as far as saying MLSE has a number in mind, regardless if the rest of the CFL is on board. Could this potentially lead to a civil war of sorts like when the AFL disbanded in 09? There were 2 camps of ownership that couldn't see eye to eye on the future of the league. The magic number was 8 teams to keep the league afloat. Chicago originally voted yes to keep playing, but then went back at the last minute. That was the day the real Arena Football league died. (The 2010-2019 version was AFL in name only in my opinion)
This one was worth cross-posting, for somewhere the dots connect to Tanenbaum's hands and influence in also these discussions via Genius Sports beyond only TSN as well as I figure favoritism of ESPN for no solid media reason and only more familiar hands washing each other as the nominal and prudent accounting entries are made and so forth within a large Canadian conglomerate and buried so deep within ESPN and Disney that maybe it's a footnote not even a line item somewhere.
All the same the situation and massive change at Disney can put an end to any more such sweetheart deals, which the CFL via TSN allowed for ESPN without much more effort than perhaps a few farts in the wind by a nice lake on a summer holiday away from Toronto.
Larry has money and time to wait for the the XFL situation to resolve itself. Scottie Barnes costs the Raptors $7,644,600 - Which in NBA money is not a hell of a lot - that is what some say the amount that Larry and MLSE lose a year on the Argos - MLSE is not bleeding they are waiting to see if the XFL gets good TV Ratings and what the attendance looks like, MLSE can then take those numbers and the Genius Sports data and talk to the BoG. If the XFL does miraculously get good numbers in attendance and TV ratings I would think there would be a number - as in Cash number that MLSE can take to the rest of the CFL and force a merger. The only three teams that might not be swayed are Elks, Bombers, Riders - the rest would jump at $10 million usd per year.
I don't know what the probability of this happening is - but this is my view of what Larry/MLSE are looking to get accomplished. This is the only way for the 6 privately owned CFL teams to increase the value of the franchises.
I'll only slightly disagree with the point being, I don't think MLSE cares one way or the other about the rest of the CFL. If they were to jump to one of the spring leagues, they wouldn't lose sleep if Edmonton, Winnipeg, or even Montreal didn't follow them. It's not like those cities have NBA teams either.
Also, Toronto is hosting it's first WNBA game this spring and there's talks of an NWSL club coming north as well. There could be a point where MLSE just relinquishes the rights, regardless of what happens down south. They already cut the lowest hanging fruit in the Toronto Rock and sent them packing to Hamilton. The Argos are now at the bottom of their business profile.
I guess I couched the question that way because I really don't know if MLSE could take the Argos without the rest of the CFL - or maybe I guess MLSE just dumps the Argos and gets a team in the XFL?
Well usually some firms surface when they can buy a sports franchise that is losing money for a song and/or with in-kind assets that firm and its interests want to unload, and as far as venue, I figure MLSE would take an interest in a working those arrangements out as part of the deal of course.
I really don't see MLSE getting rid of the Argos - Not when they can hold onto it and play "mind games" with the rest of the league - On a construction site I would use other words to describe the game being played - but basically MLSE has unlimited money and can screw over the rest of the League just out of spite by keeping the Argos.
Every power-broker has his price too, and power can wane as well as otherwise others with ownership interests can and will change their views when there is literally more money on the table to do so for their investment.
At least they are "smart" enough to "steal" money from the small market teams to keep them around.
I guess the community teams see value in keeping the East around as Winnipeg "I don't know which division I am in " does not go back to the East if one of the Eastern teams fold.