Streaming Wars For Live Sports, Entertainment, and Gambling

the mob doesn’t care who wins or loses they want fair games and volume of action so they can get their skim cut off the top. If people think the games are fixed they quit betting and the mob then loses money.

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A bunch of you guys including @Paolo_X have been screaming about this for a while.

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@Paolo_X I think the restrictions on gambling are going to come down in about 10 years maybe sooner and it is going to be pushed by Mortgage companies, banks, and auto companies. My theory is that they will advocate for legislation in response to the massive impact of online gambling on consumer spending habits. As young men, now gambling addicts, are a key demographic for the economy. As they increasingly allocate their disposable income to online gambling, I think that there will be a concern that this diversion of funds could reduce overall spending in other sectors of the economy, including housing and automotive. With a finite amount of money circulating in the economy, these industries may push for regulations aimed at curbing excessive gambling and promoting responsible financial behavior. Not out of the goodness of their heart’s it is because their businesses and cash flows can’t function if everyone is losing at gambling.

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You raise an outstanding point. I would add only that I think the move will be much sooner, including with the next recession, when especially those firms in those industries will get wind that many of the defaults are associated also with overwhelmingly males under about 35 who are addicted gamblers.

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Redbird Capital is involved in this deal - for those who don’t know they are one of the ownership groups of the UFL. Don’t know if the UFL ends up on CBS at some point - who knows but it is interesting that Redbird is in the game here trying to help Skydance purchase a network/studio.

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Interesting to see what happens in 2027 then after the CFL deal expires.

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How long is the CFL deal with CBS anyway? I thought it was year-to-year, though recently in another thread there was a video clip in which a CBS employee on air did promote the CFL as if letting something slip about a deal for coverage in the upcoming season.

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Runs through the 2026 season.

https://3downnation.com/2023/11/17/110th-grey-cup-will-not-be-broadcast-on-american-tv-free-for-u-s-streamers-on-cfl/

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Interesting that Redbird is going to be part owner of the USA based Network that will be broadcasting the CFL stateside.

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Ah ha, it appears that Bob Bakish was Moe Green in these developments, for the “Friends of the NFL Godfather” have occupied the Paramount premises and have sat down to talk after ordering food and drink.

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@Paolo_X - You are onto something - notice that the people in Paramount didn’t want the company chopped up and sold for pieces and parts. Meaning that the NFL didn’t want things chopped up and sold for pieces and parts as that might impact one of their delivery methods - CBS. Or having Apple or google buy the NFL rights for pennies on the dollar by purchasing CBS and not the rest of Paramount.

Looking at this I really don’t see that there is any way the UFL doesn’t end up on CBS in the future. Pretty much no way if they are helping the godfather retain or takeover Paramount.

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So many details in this fine article too!

Look at the following as one reason Shari Redstone was angry with Bakish. Bakish easily could have bailed on lagging Showtime recently for a whopping $3B, and with such a windfall on valuation, Paramount would have been in position to practically and profitably scuttle the entirety of Paramount+ after its $2B in losses to date since launch in March 2021 and still losing hundreds of millions per quarter!

What is the financial sense of continuing with Paramount+ as it is now? Paramount+ is NOT a great platform and already antiquated technologically given its heavy latency. Essentially, Paramount+ is at best 2021 streaming technology from when it was launched via CBS All Access, but here in 2024.

I have to question as to whether the current architecture of Paramount+ could even be integrated with any given rebranded service without additional technological issues, including prolonged latency. It would seem to me perhaps better to start almost from scratch now.

Redstone, according to one person familiar with the matter, has also been frustrated with some of Bakish’s decisions, including not selling Showtime, the premium cable network that the company folded into its television networks and streaming effort. Bakish had dismissed a recent offer of $3 billion for the channel from investors, including former Showtime head David Nevins.

Paramount, meanwhile, has lost more than $2 billion on its streaming service, Paramount+.

The company’s streaming division saw increased revenue of nearly $1.88 billion, up 24% compared with a year earlier. The segment’s quarterly loss was $287 million.

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So I first posted about the latency issue back in November 2022. I made some predictions, and like virtually any batch of predictions, some are right and some are wrong.

If you are looking for one major reason that most people will NOT pay for a streaming subscription to watch live sports or events on a continuous basis, LATENCY would work. Overwhelmingly most people are NOT going to pay continuously to see a delayed feed when their phone can update them faster than their TV.

And why some people still pay for what is essentially a cable TV subscription, but on streaming such as YouTube TV, as if so many of those channels are missed, is baffling and won’t last either.

18 months later, is there improvement by the industry on the matter of latency? No there is not, and it shows with the churn, and Wall Street has lost patience with most major streaming offerings losing hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter as they continue to promise future growth three or four years after launch.

In my opinion, we would have been in the current situation 12 to 15 months sooner had there not been a pandemic, which like for many industries only boosted them temporarily or fostered prolonged false hope.

Below is a great article about an annual event called the Latency Bowl, which I had no idea existed.

How many of you remember dial-up internet? It sucked right?

Now think of that experience, on a crappy paid app, on your TV 25 years later!
:face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

No thanks. With such high latency at this point in 2024, either the app is free or eff off.

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Paramount Global in Play Again, 2024

And now the pendulum has swung the other way. With the deadline Friday midnight into Saturday today, there is no deal with NFL and Redbird Capital associate, Skydance, and after the following lucrative offer was received on Wednesday:

An eleventh-hour overture from Sony Pictures Entertainment and private equity firm Apollo Global Management (APO.N), opens new tab expressing interest in acquiring Paramount Global (PARA.O), opens new tab complicated negotiations, another person familiar with the talks told Reuters.

The companies submitted a non-binding offer letter on Wednesday, signed by Sony Pictures Chief Executive Tony Vinciquerra and Apollo partner Aaron Sobel, a source confirmed to Reuters. The $26 billion offer is a combination of cash and assumption of debt.

Now there is much more to be discussed with far bigger money from Sony and Apollo.

I figure the NFL would be quite miffed now.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/sony-apollo-submit-26-bln-paramount-offer-wsj-reports-2024-05-03/

Food For Thought: The Recipe for Streaming Series FAILURE,
which is a whole lot of them

https://forums.cfl.ca/t/anyone-else-cancel-netflix-for-being-too-propagandistic/89314/66?u=paolo_x

Streaming Series FAILURE:
Avoid The Following On Any Streaming Series, and Never Pay For Such Crap!

  1. Any series with a major plot twist usually in Episode 3, such as a likable or central character killed off or suddenly no longer in the scenes. Sometimes you won’t know until a few episodes later after a new character is introduced also often in this third episode.
  2. Any series that states in promotion and disclaimer that it is “loosely based” on a true story, which generally means it should have been simply based on fiction from the start rather than any attribution on a “true story.” Otherwise if not watching fiction, you are better off watching a docuseries based more on the facts of a true story, such as “Cocaine Cowboys” as one example of an entertaining docuseries:
    Watch Cocaine Cowboys: The Kings of Miami | Netflix Official Site
  3. Any series that is based heavily on true stories in a documentary format, but that uses actors following a script instead of interviews with the actual people involved. These series are generally misleading with regards to the actual events.
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I had to quit watching locked up abroad - loved that show but terrified me didn’t even want to go the the grocery story. Isn’t that how it always starts - innocent trip the grocery store, next thing you are a drug mule for a cartel and you are doing time in some Colombian hell hole prison.

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Purchase of the Rest of Hulu by Disney from Comcast:
File Under “Didn’t See This Coming”
:roll_eyes:

So pursuant to the agreement in 2009, six months ago Disney had decided to buy the remaining 33% owned by Comcast.

Six months is a very LOOOONG time in entertainment media and in streaming media any more.

The 2019 agreement also held that the remaining price over the minimum would be determined via outside firms selected separately by Disney and Comcast.

So what a shocker here, after each firm has dithered for six months with two investment banks, well they still can’t…wait for it …agree on a valuation!
:unamused:

JPMorgan has valued Hulu for Disney at close to $27.5 billion, which is the floor valuation for Hulu that the companies had set as part of their 2019 “put-call” agreement, one of the sources said. Morgan Stanley valued Hulu for Comcast at more than $40 billion, another source said.

It’s noteworthy that the prospects for the valuation of Hulu are so negative that J.P. Morgan had to go with the floor number on valuation as agreed years ago. This reality would appear to suggest that the true valuation of Hulu is even LOWER in May 2024 such that Disney is still overpaying at the floor!

I’m thinking Comcast had anticipated more as of six months ago based on what they saw as higher prospects for Peacock in a huge sports year.

A crappy playoff production on Peacock spearheaded by the spectacle that is Taylor Swift aside, and effective NFL charity for the first game in Brazil for reasons discussed otherwise, Comcast got it wrong as fewer people rely on Peacock for sports coverage for long if at all any more.

Disguised pay-per-view events staged by the NFL don’t make a streaming service subscription worth more.

We already had pay-per-view for decades before streaming, and pay-per-view still does exist.

A streaming media property, which continues to lose money, generally would decrease in value over time in 2024.

By contrast in 2021, prospects of higher valuations, which included one of many naive assumptions that a high percentage of subscribers would remain at “only $5 per month,” amounted overwhelmingly to mere hype.

Then even during a pandemic and recession, when in sheer greed also as Comcast had jacked up cable rates for no good reason after not fixing the cable lineup anyway and making that heavy gravy via their regional sports networks as they even tried to coerce people to signup for Peacock, well most customers told Comcast rightfully to :fu: off.

As a counterpoint in Comcast’s favour on valuation, WWE on Peacock would be in its favour for valuation, yet that deal was only announced in September 2023 six weeks before Comcast and Disney excecuted their standing agreement.

Based on the timing of the WWE announcement and the fact that such coverage does not start until October 2024, no doubt Disney is not hearing it for any pitch by Comcast of increased valuation of a streaming media asset due to even the WWE deal.

https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/disney-comcast-seek-advisor-resolve-hulu-valuation-sources-say-2024-05-06/

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Don’t know if there is any value with OSU/WSU football broadcasts but the CW continues to pick up what I would call value broadcast rights off the discount rack. The thing with the CW is they have coast to coast coverage. It also says these games will air right after the middle tier ACC games that the CW has.

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Direct Distribution, Easy Consumption >>>
Membership, Forms, Apps, Subscriptions, Points, Et Cetera

This is another great example of this trend we have followed.

Basically, bargain bin rights for live sports beats most any content for sake of ratings and advertising rates, for most any other content can be found somewhere else quite often instead of on some channel. There is little reason any more to watch the first-run of any given show, for example.

Those fewer and mentally definitely older who still lament the obsolescence of the likes of water-cooler talk at the office can eat it.

I hope the CW and others ride this trend on free antenna TV as long as they can as the streaming services take the rest of the ride down to ZERO,
as hopefully these stupid streaming services are replaced by direct streaming channels to our TV’s,
which are already growing and well at hand for even niche sports,
minus any stupid memberships, apps, latency, or subscriptions whether or not paid!

Here’s a case in point in another business from over the weekend when I went to a liquor store in New Jersey.

I go to another store at times in Delaware, for here in Pennsylvania we have socialized liquor much like the LCBO in Ontario and a Soviet-style system of central planning for wine and liquor sales (with an exception made for sales of wine now in private stores, though also regulated heavily by the state). Believe it or not, at times we still do score great deals in PA on high quality products not available anywhere close, and the stores themselves are well-managed and pleasant, but central planning as we know has its common weaknesses.

Anyway, when I checked out, to get the sale price the cashier offered a membership and stated you only need give a phone number and name for discounts - no cards, no point system, no long application, no app, et cetera. They clearly were targeting their biggest competitor with such a system.

You better believe I signed up.

That’s the way of the future in business in general.

Easy, direct membership and distribution without the unnecessary software and digital data in the middle like those glitchy apps.

The stores can collect the rest of the data later after you make purchases anyway, which is the whole point!

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