Sobering cross over stat...

For those fans in the West looking for an open back door into the playoffs and hopefully into the Grey Cup here is a sobering stat I came across:

The crossover rule has been in effect seven times.[since 1997]. The following list tells which team crossed over

BC 1997 crossed to East and Lost Semi-Final 35-45

SSK 2002 crossed to East and Lost Semi-Final 12-24

BC 2003 crossed to East and Lost Semi-Final 7-28

SSK 2005 crossed to East and Lost Semi-Final 14-30

EDM 2008 crossed to East and lost Final 26-36

BC 2009 crossed to East and Lost Final 18-56

EDM2012 crossed to East and Lost Semi-Final 26-42

For you eastern fans whose team finishes up in 1st or 2nd place it might be an opportunity to do a little revelling. What I find interesting is that none of those games were even close. :wink:

Bottom Line? The west crossing over to the east is not free passage to the Grey Cup. :wink:

1997 - 8-10 BC lost to 13-5 Montreal
2002 - 8-10 Saskatchewan lost to 8-10 Toronto
2003 - 11-7 BC lost to 9-9 Toronto
2005 - 9-9 Saskatchewan lost to 10-8 Montreal
2008 - 10-8 Edmonton beat 8-10 Winnipeg and lost to 11-7 Montreal
2009 - 8-10 BC beat 9-9 Hamilton and lost to 15-3 Montreal
2012 - 7-11 Edmonton lost to 9-9 Toronto

So let's put this "sobering stat into perspective. Out of 9 games played out of the 7 crossover seasons only ONCE did a team with a better record lose to a team with an inferior regular season record. When applied to the current season, the crossover team from the west will very likely have a better record than BOTH eastern playoff teams.

Bottom Line? The west crossing over to the east this season is free passage to the Grey Cup if history has anything to say about it.

how many of those teams won the cup?

As usual you completely miss the point. In all but one game the team with the better record won and the team with the better record was always the 2nd place or first place eastern team. Not going to be the case this year. The team in the east playoffs with the best record will be the western crossover team.

Why do I feel I wasted my time explaining this to you? :roll:

my point was that it doesn't matter the record going into the playoffs, the crossover team has little chance winning the cup, and not much more of a chance to even get there

Who says the crossover team will have a better record than the top team in the East ? Your getting way, way ahead of yourself

I said very likely (in my post) not will (your words), but I'll play along. Can we at least agree that the crossover is going to happen despite eastern apologists claims the division is catching up. That crossover will be either BC or Saskatchewan.

If BC, they finish with Bombers, Eskies and Stamps. Even a 1-2 finish makes them 9-9 and one of the east teams must go 4-0 down the stretch to top that. Do you really see that happening? I don't.

If the Riders crossover they finish with Edmonton twice and Calgary. I'll play devil's advocate and say the Riders go 0 for 3 there. They also finish 9-9 so first in the east still needs to go 4-0 to have a better record. Still don't see it happening.

So explain to me how the crossover team having a better record than first in the east is so unlikely that the mere suggestion is getting "way, way ahead of" myself.

Whoever the crossover team is from the west - if there is one - which is more likely than not - will IMO be underdogs in any game they play in the East as bettors will take into account the better play from Eastern teams - which has been the stronger division since mid-September.

don't forge that third place in the east only has to tie the west team. Every body has 9 wins, no crossover

if it is possible that all 3 east teams finish at 9-9, then hard for BC to cross over as they would have to win at least one of their games against the league two best teams, by standings anyhow.

Do you do any research? It's all divisional play for the last four weeks of the schedule. It is IMPOSSIBLE for 3 east teams to win 3 of 4 to finish 9-9. Not virtually impossible, physically impossible. As in it can not happen. :roll:

That one of the three teams runs the table is possible but unlikely, but even if they don't and finish with identical record to BC for example 9-9 that still does not support your theory that the Western team will win because it has a [u]better record. As far as I know identical records is not better.

Your making an educated assumption with a month left of CFL football to play IMO. But you don't stop there, you then add that this western will walk through their two opponents to get to the GC. That's a whole lot of W.A.G.

actually, I said IF because I did not feel like doing the math. So I did it. It is possible for there to be a 3-3-2 finish in the east, so then all bc has to do is win 1. IF BC does win 1, then I see it coming down to the last week between ham and mont for the east second spot with loser odd team out. However, standings are deceptive as all 3 eastern teams have been on fire lately. I think BC would be the underdog irrelevant of standings.

dcmoses, you said… "Bottom Line? The west crossing over to the east this season is free passage to the Grey Cup if history has anything to say about it."

On the contrary. FYB has it right. History has proven that 7 straight times not a single Western cross over team made it into the Grey Cup let alone win it.

History since 1997 has proven that in order for a Western team to get into the Grey Cup it has to beat both the 2nd and 1st place teams in the east. History has plenty to say about it. History tells me that not a single western cross over team has succeeded in getting past both eastern playoff teams. I would not call that getting free passage to the Grey Cup. If you have made a point, I'm sorry but I've missed it.

Maybe a western team will cross over and win the Grey Cup this year. Maybe not.

I agree all you have to look is how well BC played in the East this year even prior to these teams getting their act together... Saskatchewan didn't look too hot in Montreal on the weekend either :wink:

I was showing a best case scenario for the east. Only a 4-0 record for one team even gives that team any hope of having a better record than the crossover team. The reason I point it out is, as I showed, only once in a game involving a crossover team has the team with the better record lost. Yes, identical records of 9-9 are a tie, but again, not likely to happen. That would see one east team go 3-1 and either BC goes 1-2 or the Riders go 0-3. Go ahead and bet your house on that. I wouldn't bet a nickel on that possibility even if it was FYB's nickel.

Eastern apologists hurry up, you only have 2-3 more weeks to back up the east "juggernaut" (I would have laughed without the quotation marks :lol: ) before two teams are eliminated and a crossover is awarded. And that crossover team will (I'll bet on this) have a better record than first in the east.

I trust that your point is…

" In all but one game the team with the better record won and the team with the better record was always the 2nd place or first place eastern team. Not going to be the case this year. The team in the east playoffs with the best record will be the western crossover team. "

You raise a valid point dcmoses. However, given the way the eastern teams have come on lately this year and the injury issues both the Lions and SSK face I would not put my money on the team with the greater number of wins going to the Grey Cup. Even the coaches will say that when playoffs begin it is a whole new season.

Also the wins vs losses that translate into a team’s overall standing is not necessarily indicative of how strong that team may be heading into the playoffs.

You are just embarrassing yourself. For one thing, it's highly UNLIKELY that a Western team will have a BETTER record than all the Eastern teams. At least one team, more likely two teams will go 3-1. It's highly unlikely that Saskatchewan will win another game this year. The only conceivable game that B.C. can win is against Winnipeg. And you are forgetting one major thing. Eastern teams have now won 9 of the last 11 from Western opponents....every Western opponent. Those two losses? Both by Ottawa.

Winning the grey cup is hard for all teams. Improbable but not impossible for crossover team to advance to grey cup. For crossover team, east opponents are still more attractive than facing tough Calgary and Edmonton. In recent decades, east division is overrated because of weaker competition. Without Ottawa, top 3 east teams would have worser records.

It's you that's embarassing yourself. Read the OP, then read my posts and you may understand why I posted what I did. However, based on your keen desire to insult I think the point will sail way over your head.

Your stats were misleading beagle, which is why I posted. Yes the east has been lucky in the last 4-6 weeks, but I believe their records are a true reflection of the teams and come playoffs the crossover will win. You used crossover history to show the odds were not in the crossover teams favour and I used the same history to show it was in the crossovers favour.

In the end it is just a historical pattern that has no impact on this season....but it's fun to speculate. 8)