Scenario time..

After this heart wrenching loss. What needs to happen the rest of the way?

Do we still control our destiny?

yes. we beat the rEDBLACKS and then beat Montreal by 8+ points.

Thanks MF, that for first over all or just to clinch a playoff spot

Here's a scenario for you:
If Hamilton goes 1-1 in their remaining games, and Toronto loses both of their's, Hamilton would finish 2nd in the east with an 8-10 record and host a crossover team (either BC or SK) whose record will be 9-9 or better.

If Hamilton and Toronto both lose-out over the final two weeks, Toronto would sit 7-11 but still host the east semi to a 9-9 or better crossover team.

Win both games and we're in.

If Montreal beats toronto, we need to beat Montreal by 8 for 1st place.
If toronto beats Montreal, it doesn't matter how much we beat Montreal by, but then we need Ottawa to beat toronto to get 1st place.

Lose either game and we need help that I don't want to think about right now.

Assuming the 'Cats beat the RedBlacks in Ottawa, which they must do, then it would be better for the 'Cats if the (and I hate saying this) Argos beat the Als in Montreal. If that were the case, then the 'Cats would only have to defeat Montreal at home but wouldn't have to win by 8 or more points.

We not longer control our destiny in regards to winning the east final. The only two scenarios that we can win the east final is the Als win next week, we beat Ottawa and then we beat the Als by 8 or more points which is possible or the Argos win next week and then lose to Ottawa and we win out. That seems like an incredibly unlikely scenario. In either case, to win the east, we need help.

In regards to us making the playoffs, we still control our own destiny. If we win out we are in, as we'll finish 9-9.

Next week, the Als and Argos play each other. If the Als win they go up to 9-8 and the Argos stay at 7 and in theory we move up to 8 beating Ottawa. Then if we beat the Als, we're up to 9 and it doesn't matter if the Argos beat Ottawa, they are out.

Conversely, if the Argos win, they go up to 8-8 (and so do we if we beat Ottawa) making another 3 way tie in the east, but with the Argos holding all the tiebreaks. We beat the Als, we go up to 9-9 (and in theory so do the Argos) and the Als are out.

However, if we lose a single game from this point onward, unless Ottawa beats the Argos, we are out.

I would say we want the Als to win the next game, as it gives us control of our destiny to win the east (and a better chance to do it IMO) for us to win the east and still gives us a chance to get in if we lose one if the Argos lose to Ottawa.

That would guarantee us a playoff spot, but we'd still need help to take first place.

There's lots still up in the air.

The Toronto-Montreal game next week will have a huge impact on the playoff picture. Either Toronto or Montreal could clinch the division by winning out their final two games. The head-to-head between them next week means it's only possible for one of them to do that.

We win our two games we are at least guaranteed 2nd place - regardless of how much we win those games by.

For us to finish 1st - we of course must beat Ottawa and then:

Scenario One - Als beat Argos - we would have to beat the Als by at least 8 points in the last game
Scenario Two - Argos beat Als - we need to beat the Als and have the Redblacks beat the Argos

That is correct TPB. Due to the brain cramp suffered during my previous post, it would be better for the 'Cats if the Als beat the Argos next week in Montreal.

What happens though if its scenario Three-Als beat Argos-we beat Als BUT by only 7 pts . That would mean that the two teams would be virtually tied right across the board....9 wins apiece,1 win/1 loss apiece head to head,tied in head to head total points scored/against. I'm not sure if it's already been posted,but what would be the tie breaking procedure for this very possible scenario ? Total points for/agst ? point differential ? better W/L divisional record ? If it's the first two then we would be awarded 1rst place BUT if it's the divisional record then the Als would get it based on their 6-2 East record over our 5-3 East record. Anybody have the definitive answer to this ?

Didn't see this before I posted the tiebreaker rules in the other thread. It would come down to division record, which Mtl would win.

From JFL ^^^^

Here’s the tiebreaking procedure as of 2013 (the version of the rule book that is currently on cfl.ca):

a) has won the greater number of games played against all member Clubs of the League, then
b) has the higher winning percentage in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then
c) has scored the higher net aggregate of points (i.e. points scored for less points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then
d) has scored the higher net quotient of points (i.e. points scored for divided by points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s),then
e) has the higher winning percentage in all games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then
f) has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then
g) has scored the higher quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then
h) has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then
i) has scored the higher net quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then
j) has won a coin toss against the other tied Club.

If Hamilton and Montreal end up tied at the end of the season, with the Ticats winning the final game by 7, the first 4 clauses would all be tied (records and points for/against between Ham/Mtl), so it would come down to (e), record within the division. Hamilton is 3-3 vs the East, and Monteal is 5-1. So assuming both teams win next week and we beat Montreal, it ends up with Hamilton 5-3 and Montreal 6-2, so they get the tiebreaker.
(or 4-4 vs 5-3 if we both lose next week, same result)
Any other combination of results wouldn’t create a tie in the standings.

Thanks JFL and Grover for the explanation…I guess it’s an 8 pt win or bust then for our Cats for 1rst place this season.

It could have and should have been more than 8 points!
If I recall correctly, Higgins left points on the field when he decided to take a knee on the last play of the game in MTL,
Instead of kicking an easy field goal with no time left on the clock!
Also at the end of the half, Medlock punted the ball in the endzone and Higgins had his player concede a single with 4 sec.
left in the half.
If not for Higgins, we may have needed 12 points instead of 8 points!
Is it possible that Austin could get out coached by this guy?

I'm thinking we could see a wild finish to this game,if indeed we are up by 7 or 8 pts with seconds to go.It could come down to Medlock hammering the ball into the end zone trying to get the single with the Als having Whyte back there trying to boot the ball back out to avoid it. I'm also thinking that Austin and Higgins will try avoiding giving up any safeties regardless of field position. Can you imagine if the Cats win something like 28-20 and the 2 deciding points were the result of Higgins conceding a safety early on in the game ? Like Grover has already noted the Als could have been up by at least 11,if not for Mr.Conservative Higgins kneeling the ball instead of attempting a chip shot fg the last time we met,let's hope that little brainfart from Higgins comes back to haunt him and his team in 2 weeks time. But let's not get too ahead of ourselves just yet and take care of the business at hand of destroying the TWOCOLOURS this week and hopefully the Als will complete the scenario by defeating that team from Toronto,sending little Ricky,the Cryin' Hawaiian and the rest of that horseshoe clan packing for the season. :slight_smile: :cowboy:

And wouldn't it be funny if Ottawa beats the Ticats at home and the Als beat the Argos at home.
The scenario would be different, even if the Ticats beat the Als all the Argos would have to do is beat Ottawa at home..................... :roll:

as Much as Ticats fans will hate to do it Pray for Argo win this week
Ticats should beat Ottawa and Come home to finish the season vs Montreal .
All Teams must run the Table to make the playoffs .
I feel much better about beating Ottawa then Going Full Stadium Fully open 22,000 Strong .
Beating Montreal to get the Semi Final … vs a West Team .

I think we want the Arblows to lose, and we win in OTT and then beat MTL by 8 at THF

This is got to be the first time in the history of the league where with only 2 weeks left to play that not one team has clinched a playoff berth in a division. I can't recall ever that a scenario like this has occurred,it has truly been a strange season in the CFL this year. Can anybody recall if this has ever happened before,because I truly think it must be a first where you have three teams all in contention for a playoff spot,but yet no one knows who is going to finish where.It's definitely going to be a crazy two weeks to a wild finish in the East this year.