CFL Week 7 Previews
By CFL Handicapper Ron Raymond of Phoenixsports.com
The Bookmaker have adjusted their totals the last 3 weeks of the CFL season, the average O/U during Week 1 to Week 3 was between 48.0 and 48.5. However, now that the offenses have gelled and are putting up some big numbers on the board, the oddsmakers have raised their totals between 51.0 to 53.0 the last 3 weeks. Look for more games to go UNDER the total in Week 7, as you had all four totals go under the total in week 1, the OVER was 3-1 Week 2, 3 and 4. Then, we had a few “even-Stevens? of 2-2 during Week 5 and 6.
Plus, many teams have some key injuries this week, so look for the lines to start going down.
Here are my CFL previews for Week 7. Enjoy!
Toronto (-2.5) vs. Hamilton (50.5)
Argonauts @ Tiger Cats History: The Argos are 11-10-1 (ATS), 12-9-1 (SU) and the Over/Under is 9-13-0 since ‘96.
Ron’s Comment: Whenever I watch a Hamilton Tiger Cats football game, I’m wondering if Head Coach Charlie Taaffe has a game plan in mind. In fact, not only should the blame go towards Charlie Taaffe, but what exactly is Bob O’Billovich doing as the GM for Bob Young’s Football club. Shouldn’t O’Billovich be bringing real receivers to help out the QB by committee these days? When is Timmy Chang expected to save the season? Furthermore, it’s time the Tiger Cats trade Jesse Lumsden, because in 2 seasons in the CFL, he’s shown to be injury prone and the Tiger Cats can’t afford to have a running back with this much potential on the IR each week. Now is the time to release Lumsden to another team and try to get a more consistent player who will be in the line up 80% of the season. You cannot establish a running game when your top running back is always injured. Jesse Lumsden seems to be a great kid and is well respected by his teammates and peers, but he’s useless to the Tiger Cats if he’s always injured. As for the Week 7 meeting between the Argonauts and Tiger Cats, it could be a game that decides the faith of the Tiger Cats head coach and you might get a better performance from the Ti-Cats. Hamilton has been labeled a -2.5 point road favorite vs. the Tabbies and whenever Hamilton is a +3.0 or less home underdog, they are 8-9-0 ATS, 5-11-1 SU and the O/U is 7-10-0 since 1996. The Argos seemed to have avoided a QB controversy, as Kerry Joseph seems to have taken the reigns of the offense and they’ve been averaging 25.33 points per game in their last 3 contest. Toronto is 2-1 SU in their last 3 games and their defense stepped up to the plate last weekend vs. Winnipeg.
ATSCalculator.com Forecast: Toronto winning by 0.92 points and the O/U to land on 51.34 points.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When TORONTO team played as a pk to 3 Road Favorite - Coming off a game scored 17 points or more; The UNDER is 8-2-0 for the Argonauts.
Calgary (52.5) vs. Saskatchewan (-3)
Lions @ Eskimos History: The Stampeders are 10-9-0 (ATS), 10-8-1 (SU) and the Over/Under is 10-9-0 since ’96.
Ron’s Comment: When watching the Roughriders vs. Stampeders game last weekend, I started to think if the Saskatchewan Roughriders where our edition of the New England Patriots. However, New England was blowing out teams in the first 3 games and averaging 38 points per game. However, the Saskatchewan Roughriders have been living and dying by the sword, as they’ve been waiting until the last 3 minutes of the game to close out their opponents the last 4 weeks. In fact, there comes a point where one has to wonder if these Roughriders are for real? Ken Miller has the best defense in the league and it’s very hard to run against these guys and Wes Cates is the early favorite on winning the Most Outstanding Player thus far. Cates has been spectacular on offense rushing or catching the ball out of the backfield and one has to wonder if he might get another sniff at the NFL if he continues this pace. The Roughriders are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS and the UNDER is 4-2-0 on the season. The Green Riders have average 30.67 PF on offense and are only giving up 22.17 against, but things could get a little tougher for Miller’s men in August. Because, when Saskatchewan is a home team during the month of August between weeks 4 to 8, they are 3-8 SU and ATS. Calgary got rolling late last weekend, as Henry Burris was very inconsistent for 2 and a half quarters, but once he got his confidence going, it was just a matter of time before they made a game out of it at home. I’m still wondering why John Hufnagel opted to run the ball with a running back late in the game on a 3rd and 1, when it would have been better to sneak it with Burris. The Stampeders are in a nice handicapping spot this week; they are 8-3-1 on the road coming off a 0-3 point home lost since ’96.
ATSCalculator.com Forecast: Saskatchewan winning by 2.52 points and the O/U to land on 52.91 points.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When SASKATCHEWAN team played as a Home team - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; The OVER is 10-2-0 for the Roughriders in this role.
Montreal (-3) vs. Winnipeg (54)
Alouettes @ Blue Bombers History: The Alouettes are 7-11-1 (ATS), 10-9 (SU) and the Over/Under is 10-8-1 since ’96.
Ron’s Comment: The Montreal Alouettes finally delivered a victory to its fans last week at Molson Percival Stadium vs. the Hamilton Tiger Cats. OK, it’s not that surprising they won as a -10.0 point home favorite, but considering they’ve lost 3 games prior to their tilt with the Tabbies, Montreal was always finding a way to lose games. Montreal is a good football team, but they lack the killer instinct to put teams away and I’m starting to wonder if Marc Trestman is too conservative as a head coach. Keep in mind, this was a offensive coordinator who was at NC State and seen 9 out of 10 games go under the total. Whenever you have that many unders in a season, this tells me the coach wants to control the clock and run the game out. In fact, according to his Wikipedia bio, it states the following phrase; “Trestman spent the 2004 season with the Miami Dolphins and in 2005 he returned to college football as the North Carolina State Wolfpack offensive coordinator where he was known for being a conservative play-caller.? Does this sound like a head coach who wants to run and gun? The Alouettes get some players back on defense this week and they could use the help, as they’ve allowed 36.67 points against in their last 3 games. Furthermore, whenever you allowed the Hamilton Tiger Cats to hang 33 points on you at home, you know the Alouettes concentrated allot of minor details to defense and don’t be surprised if they returned to the basics. Winnipeg on the other hand has gone from the Penthouse to the Outhouse in a matter of 9 months! The Blue Bombers are not in a good sports handicapping situation this Friday Night, they are 3-7 SU as a home underdog in August since ’96 and the UNDER is 7-3-0. As for Doug Berry’s move to replace Kevin Glenn with former Boise State star Ryan Dinwiddie. Well, Matt Dunnigan said it best last week on the CFL panel on TSN, Ryan Dinwiddie has a pop gun for an arm! Watching the game last week between the Bombers and Argos, I noticed allot of Dinwiddie’s passes were floaters and had no tight spirals or speed. If you’re a totals players, here’s a great team trend that backs up the under. When a Montreal team played on the road on 7 days rest, during Week 4 to 8 and they care coming off a Home straight up win as a Favorite; the UNDER is 8-2-0 for the Alouettes in this spot since ’96.
ATSCalculator.com forecast: Montreal winning by 12.02 points and the O/U to land on 56.03 points.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -Vs Montreal opponent -With 6 day off -Before a division game - Allowed score 17 points or more against; The OVER is 12-2-0 for the Home Team (Winnipeg) in this spot.
Edmonton (55) vs. BC Lions (-6)
Eskimos @ Lions History: The Eskimos are 11-7-2 (ATS), 9-11 (SU) and the Over/Under is 8-11-1 since ’96.
Ron’s Comment: The Edmonton Eskimos pulled off a Hollywood ending last week at home vs. the BC Lions. After starting slowly out of the gate, Ricky Ray hit Kamau Peterson over the middle and he got leveled by a Lions secondary. However, Peterson rose to his feet, flipped his jersey up and pointed to the 83 on his stomach in honor of his fallen comrade Jason Tucker who suffered a serious neck injury 2 weeks ago in Hamilton. It truly was an inspiring performance to see the Eskimos rally around their teammate and after that catch, it was all over for the Lions, as the Eskimos confidence grew on each play afterwards. The Eskimos have really turned the corner and have been playing with more consistency on offense and Ricky Ray has found some reliable receivers. Edmonton is on a 2 game winning streak and has won 4 of their last 5 games. However, they will be in a tough spot this Friday night at BC Place; the Lions have won 4 straight in BC and 6 of the last 7 meetings. If you’re a law of average handicapper, the bookmakers agree with the theory, they’ve placed the Lions a -6.0 point home favorite, the Eskimos won game one of this back to back series. However, the Lions have a history of not showing up at home after scoring 24 points or less in their previous game. In fact, when the BC Lions played as a Home team during Week 4 to 8 and they are coming off a game where they scored 24 points or less; the Leo’s are 2-9 SU. What bothers me with this Lions teams is the inconsistency at the QB position. One week Jarious Jackson is hitting his receivers in stride, other weeks he’s 5 to 10 yards off his throws. Jackson is more dangerous when he’s running the ball and Wally Buono should really consider using some sprint out passing plays that allows Jackson to pass or tuck it and run. One of the best type of plays for Jackson is one of those counter option plays, where the offense can run counter plays using the pulling guard and then option off that counter play and use a roll out to the opposite side to throw the ball. Nevertheless, Buono needs to find a way to get Jackson out of the pocket and get him in a situation where he can start running. When I look at Jarious Jackson I see Tracy Ham, Damon Allen, Kerry Joseph, and JC Watts, quarterbacks who knew when to tuck it and run.
ATSCalculator.com forecast: Edmonton winning by 4.3 points and the O/U to land on 56.30 points.
ATSDatabase.com Stat of the Game: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as Home team as a Favorite -Vs Division Opponent -Playing on Friday; the BC Lions are 14-3 SU in this role since ’96.
Good luck and remember, this is the CFL, anything can happen during the 3 minute warning! Trust me; I’ve got the scars to prove it!