Prediction Time: CFL.ca's writers' Week 14 picks

TORONTO — With a few wins, confidence inevitably follows.

That’s what we’re seeing this week in our writers’ picks. With their collective records on the rise, there seems to be a little more willingness for them to stick their necks out, to get out on those limbs that in the sub-.500 days (a period we’ll refer to as the dark ages of the 2021 season) they may not have.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.cfl.ca/2021/11/04/prediction-time-cfl-cas-writers-week-13-picks-2/

For the most part I agree with your picks...in that there may be an upset. But it will not be in Winnipeg. I am still favouring the Riders but the Elks have to win one game at home...right? If there is an upset it could be in Edmonton, but I am not betting on it.

Winnipeg
SK
Hamilton
TO

Have you heard yet that the Elks have ruled out Walker, Ellingson & Wilder for the game & continue to start Cornelius? I think Maas will get a little revenge for his dismissal. But, hey, stranger things have happened.

Yes I heard the Elks are banged up. It sounds like the Riders centre, Clarke, Duke Williams and possibly Leonard may also be out. Kyran Moore is done for the year as is there punter, Jon Ryan.

I realize that predictions are a bit of a crap shoot but it appears that the monkey they used to have picking winners for NFL games could do a better job and odds are he would be close to .500.

I am specifically talking about two writers picking the Als over the Bombers. Perhaps that would be a viable option if you received the 12.5 points being currently given, but straight up? I’ll have what they’re having, as the saying goes. If they are using dartboards to pick I say get someone else. They are obviously not gamblers.

As is pointed out in the article. The Bombers are a perfect 6-0 at home, stand tall on their 8 game win streak and are coming off a bye. Do they even think before making their picks? I wouldn’t let them pick out a pair of socks.

Here’s the deal. O’Shea is historically loathe to pull his starters, to the point where he is justifiably criticized for his reticence. Judging by how the Bombers played BC in the 4th quarter, not letting up and wanting the shutout, why is it logical to think they would let up now? I think they will take equal pride in finishing the season undefeated at home. In addition, they don’t want to give the impression to anyone who may travel to Winnipeg for the Western Final that there is any chance they might lose at home. They also want to reward their loyal fans who have paid good money to attend, rather than consider any kind of tanking. Think of it as the pre season game where you play mostly starters.

Yes of course the Als could win, but there is really no basis to bet on that straight up. Do these writers think that Harris is the second coming of Joe Montana? Obviously they didn’t see his last game against the Bombers.

The most the Bombers will do this week I predict is not dress someone who has any kind of injury, even if that player would play if it was a playoff game. That might be the boat Andrew Harris is in. Now if you’re talking next week in Montreal that might be a different scenario, especially if they lose someone to injury this weekend. Maybe also for the last game against Calgary, but who knows if that game will even mean anything to Calgary. In these circumstances I would bet that O’Shea will do what he has always done and not let up. The “upset” picks made should have waited until next week at least.

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Here are my Week 14 picks-Cats-Riders-Argos-Bombers. May the best teams win. :football: :canada:

The Bombers are coming off a bye and have a chance to close out perfect 7-0 at home. They will rest guys at some point, but not this week. Montreal will get the full arsenal on Saturday, and they should be prepared to get it right in the ... :s

Not to say that that's an automatic win for the Bombers but the Als' chances are slim and none this week. Next week could be a different story. Take it one week at a time.

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Methinks he doth protest too much. Yeah - it's tough when of the 4 games ALL the writers have the least confidence in a Bomber victory @ 66%. How can the Bombers possibly not be a unanimous favourite? Well you may want to ask all the Dodger & Astro fans that? Massive underdogs sometimes upset teams in a best of 7, never mind one game. Can the Als beat the Bombers in 1 game? Why not?

Both Jim Morris and I see a change coming this week with the Lions so… this first game should end up being the big surprise of the weekend for you people. Jim and I haven’t agreed in years so this is big for the club.

We even have a new kicker FYI

My pick is Lions, Riders, Argos and Bombers. Aceguy was so close on this one.:beers:

I am not protesting too much, merely using logic, which I would expect of a professional writer. I said that of course the Als could win. Ottawa or Edmonton could theoretically beat the Bombers in any given game. They could not do so in a best of seven series but we know football is way more unpredictable than any other team sport as superior teams can lose any given game for a variety of reasons, most commonly a slew of turnovers. My point is that this does not equate to a logical professional prediction nor is there any reason to play a hunch. Picking the Als straight up is closer to betting it all on “0” on one spin of the roulette wheel. And I don’t mind the Als and they have a good chance of winning the East in my opinion. I would also say that the Dodgers or Astros, while favoured, were not massive favorites like the Bombers are and should be. In fact San Fran was the second favorite to the Dodgers to win the World Series at the start of the playoffs. This year there is no team in baseball, the NHL or NFL that should be more favoured than the Bombers in any given game. A professional picking the Als to win is just “Amateur Hour”. That does not mean that the Bombers are guaranteed a win 100% and that is not what I said.

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All 4 of these games have distinct to heavy favorites. Of the 4 the best chance for an upset would be BC, but I still think that Hamilton's front 7 will be too much for BC's o-line.

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What's illogical about picking a 6 win team to win a game vs a 10 win team who has wrapped up 1st place. In 2019 Winnipeg won 4 less games than the 15-3 TiCats & lost both season games to them including a beat down in IGF. Was it illogical to bet on the Bombers in the GC? This happens a lot - 2017 GC - Stamps 13-4-1 lose to 9-9 Argos, 2016 Stamps 15-2-1 lose to 8-9-1 Ottawa. That's 3 times in 4 years logic lost. BTW the 15-1-1 Stamps could have set the record over the 16-2 Esks for best season & lost to the 6-11 Als. Illogical? What's the lesson here? Complacency sets in. Of course that can't happen to the Bombers. That would be illogical.

You haven’t changed my mind. The Bombers you are talking about in 2019 were pre Collaros and got on a huge roll and in retrospect the best team. I don’t know offhand the details of the other circumstances you cite. While this could happen again this year, that is someone could usurp the Bombers, my point is that there is no evidence of that yet. Maybe after the remaining games another team will emerge as a serious threat, but for now those circumstances simply don’t exist. I get that a fan would like to see their team win but remain critical of professional writers who appear to base their opinion on nothing more than horoscopes, or perhaps the use of a Ouija board.

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Jon, you are critical of professional people not voting 100% for the Bombers. That's illogical. They have a record to defend, just like beat reporters in the NFL, NHL etc.. Are they betting on the Als to bring down their record? Fans, on the other hand, often overrate their own teams. Would you say the game is more important for the Als than for the Bombers? Not a factor? As for the pre-Collaros Bombers comment, I guess we can put to rest whether Jefferson or Collaros is the most valuable, right? Anyway, hope your Bombers win the Cup. Unless my team is there. That would be fun.

We will have to agree to disagree. It’s not a major point anyway. Just something I noticed.

I'll tell you 'why not'. Harris will be running for his life. Montreal's offensive line can't protect him. To make things worse for poor old Harris our top interceptor from 2019 (Winston Rose) just got back into the rotation.

Pride will keep that league-best defensive unit from letting up. Expect another lopsided victory for the Bombers. Even the spread won't help Montreal here. :smiley: :+1:

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The bottom line is this. Yes, any team can beat any team on any given day. So based on that, if Nye and O'Leary just have a hunch that Montreal will win that's understandable, but if they are basing it on a sound analysis then they should take the 12.5 points and bet the house.

Part of my point is that as a professional writer and right after explaining why the Bombers should win, they are picked to lose with no explanation. In my view there is no point in them picking and it is not interesting or useful for them to do it this way. Presumably they know a bit about what they are talking about but it appears they do not. I’ll stick with the monkey if it’s going to be that haphazard. I’m not sure if you’re agreeing with anything I say but I have already set out that taking the points is an entirely different ballgame. These picks are straight up.

So what if they're straight up. Kryk makes predictions straight up on NFL games every week. It's never perfect. They've already hinted at the reason why - Bombers coming off a bye week & there's the fact complacency may set in. The 16-0 Patriots lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl & tanked their perfect season. Do you think they had nothing to play for? It happens. On any given day an underdog can beat a big favourite. I've already given the example of 3 or the last 4 seasons the underdogs won the Grey Cup. I can't believe you are still debating someone else's right to bet on whomever they want. OMG.

I’m not saying any of the things you think I’m saying and I said nothing whatsoever about someone’s right to bet. The article was the weekly predictions and had nothing to do with betting. As I also said, this isn’t that important so there is no point in continuing the discussion. It seems we will disagree, even though I am not sure we are talking about the same thing.