Pretty obvious Winnipeg being set up for the fall.
A spotty o-line combined with various nicks & hurts to key players (Ellingson, Demski, Asugudio, last year's all-star safety, Jeffcoat, etc.) and you have a formula for falling from grace. Deep falling!
After the bye week the bombers will be softer than butter but still show key injuries on their depth charts.
Don't know if they are capable of falling all the way down to 4th in west for the crossover - which is prolly their best route to defending the Cup!
But I do think its entirely possible the Bombers could collapse to a 2-6 record down the stretch and finish 11-7 allthough smarter money would be on a 3-5 finish which would give them a 12-6 record and an outside shot for 2nd in West.
In any event, anything short of 14-4, a home Western final and a chance to 3-peat for the Grey Cup would be an immense disappointment to the CFL's most avid fan base.
I think the "Power Rankings" are an assessment of the strength as of today. Not what their record is or who beat who in past games. For example, if NR was to fall down the stairs and break his arm the "Power Ranking" of the Lions would immediately drop considerably.
But they wouldn't. Lets say that happened at the end of the game this week.
BC would be firmly in second in the power rankings. I agree that the injury puts WPG comfortably in 1st, but they would still be above Calgary for this week. Now, depending on what would happen the following week BC might drop more (if for example they lose bad to sask) and CGY beats Tor. And with each loss they would move further down.
Can someone point to me a big rise/drop in any power ranking? It doesn't work like that, any movement is slow and wins/losses ARE THE PRIMARY FACTOR.
OK but for an example being silly about it ... If Ottawa was to sign Superman, Captain Marvel and a bunch of other super hero's to contracts today, in my opinion their "Power Ranking" would rise to the top without playing a game. It would be an assessment of their strength today!
It's not a silly example, it makes a good point. But I still say that they would not rise to the top. They might be put right away over EDM, but it would take at least a few weeks to get to the CGY/Sask ranking, let alone WPG/BC.
Well lets see the writers criteria. In the past I remember it used to be raw stats. How many yards you'd gain, if your team can actually convert on 2nd down. Red zone scoring etc. I'm not sure what the criteria is now or if they've kept the same recipe or not.
I think that would probably make people think about it. ex a Team controls the ball most game minutes wise, but then is weak on special teams where they give up many yards and tds/fumbles.
That's hard to quantify in a win/loss ratio, but if the losing team somehow did well statwise you could say they 'should have' won that game. Of course then there is reality where 'should have' doesn't give you the W. I mean a close game is still a loss, but if you threw for 400 yards and had 3-4 TDs, that doesn't hurt the stat book or the power rankings for me.
To me, the power rankings are who you think are the best teams NOW. Some of that might be based on standings. Some of that might be based on how the teams performed particularly over the last couple of weeks. But I feel, if you are predicting who will win the Grey Cup, or who will win in games against each other NOW, that's what the Power Rankings show. So Winnipeg, BC and Calgary should still be on top, and Winnipeg should still be first. Even though they lost a game (everyone knows they will lose a game eventually), most (not all) people would still have Winnipeg as the favourite. BC is sure catching up in a hurry though and Calgary isn't that far behind either.
I agree with your assessment of how it should be assessed, including taking into account signings, injuries, etc, to determine who would win right now in neutral territory. Yes, standings come into effect as well (as past is an indicator of the future) and also how close the game is to a strong/weak opponent.
I would also agree Winnipeg is in 1st still. One loss in itself shouldn’t be enough yet to move them down. They find ways to win games but the fact they are so close is also a factor and allowing BC to move ever closer. Perhaps a good win by BC this week will be enough for next week standings?
I posted on this a couple of times already. I think you are being overly pessimistic about the Bombers chances thanks to their stellar first half of the year.
I think a 5-3 finish which would result in a 14-4 record is realistically doable and would give them first place, as long as they win one of their two remaining games against BC. BC currently stands two games behind them using a baseball standings analogy. One game is as a result of the Bombers holding the tiebreaker and one game is as a result of the two extra wins the Bombers have-BC needs to win both of their games in hand.
I don’t think BC will run the table any more than the Bombers will finish 2-6 or 3-5. There is no team in the league equal to the regular season Bombers of last year. The Bombers have won some close games against supposed lesser opponents, but so has BC, against Ottawa and Hamilton. BC beat Calgary by one and they play them twice more. Calgary has also struggled against some lesser opponents. BC’s awesome stats have benefitted from three blowouts, which the Bombers and Calgary haven’t done. The closest thing to a Bomber blowout was their win against BC, which pretty much was a blowout.
The most important stat between the top three teams is their head to head record and the Bombers are 3-0. That pretty much makes it impossible for Calgary to catch them as they must finish ahead of them in points. The Bombers also have the most favourable schedule with the most home games and byes and least amount of games and therefore statistically have less chance of more injuries. I view it differently than you. I think the Bombers clearly have the inside track on first place and doubt they will finish any worse than 5-3, perhaps even better. The only team that has a realistic chance of finishing ahead of them is BC should they basically win out including taking both remaining games with the Bombers. There is virtually zero chance the Bombers could fall below second place, barring an unforeseen complete collapse or a devastating string of injuries.
Yes, the most likely (I repeat likely, not guaranteed) scenario is Bombers finishing 14-4. However, its entirely possible BC loses a game to Wpg but runs the table to finish clear first in W.
14-4 and 2nd would still be immensely disappointing to avid Bomber fans who would no doubt put 28,000 to 30k in the stands, even in cold/snow ridden November.
Bombers slump to 2nd and have to welcome Calgary or Sask'n into town - that sounds like a mediocre playoff crowd of 23,500 to 25,000.
What you say is certainly possible and you are probably correct about crowd size if it plays out that way, but BC running the table is far from a given. They need to have everything go right and also need to have Rourke stay healthy, as the Bombers need Collaros to stay healthy. Plus beating the Bombers twice is no given. We’ll see how it plays out but I like Winnipeg’s chances of finishing first at this point.
I agree with the standings. Lions fan here. It's hard to duplicate what the Bombers did in the last 10 games, it's very impressive. I think Calgary will have a say when it's all said and done. The Leos quite frankly are a very young team starting with the QB on down so it's surprising they are doing so well. You can see the young mistakes if you look for them. Bombers, solid veteran team and Bo Levi solid veteran QB. Lions have a lot of growing to do and I see Rourke being accountable, humble which is a great attitude. Good luck to all the teams east and west it's going to be fascinating to watch.
I agree with almost everything you said, except I don’t think Calgary can finish better than 3rd place if Bo remains at the helm.
Yes the Bombers have earned the right to be #1 at this point, but they will have to continue to earn it in the second half of the season. It seems pretty obvious to me that BC will be their primary competition this year and could even finish first if they continue to roll. I like the fact that Rourke is humble and works hard and hope for the sake of a league short of star QB’s at present that he’s not one and done and in the NFL next year. Though obviously he has to go there if the opportunity presents itself.
I think Rourke's best chance at going teh NFL route is to continue kicking butt for the fremainder of the yaer and winning a Grey Cup.
That is why the league should do everything it can to make sure the Bombers win the West Final.