Playoff Scenarios

I'm trying to figure this out - this weeks games cleared up a bit in the West.

West

Winner of Calgary / Saskatchewan game in Week 19 gets first NO MATTER WHAT happens in Week 18. If this game is a tie, SK gets the nod.

Calgary finishes 1st with win against SK and 3rd if they lose both games and BC wins both. Otherwise 2nd.

Saskatchewan finishes 1st with win against CGY and 3rd if they lose both games and BC wins both. Otherwise 2nd.

BC can finish 2nd if they win both games and either Calgary or Sask lose both games. They finish 4th if they lose both games and EDM wins both games. Otherwise 3rd.

Edmonton finishes 3rd IF they win both games and BC loses both games. Otherwise they are 4th.

East

1st and 4th are set - Mtl and Toronto

Like 1/2 in the West, 2/3 in the East will come down to the game in Week 19 between Ham and Win - winner gets 2nd NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS in Week 18. A tie would give Hamilton the nod.

Crossover

If Edmonton wins both games - they will crossover with 18 points. Because Hamilton and Winnipeg play each other the most the East's third place team will have is 17 points (1 win, 1 tie).

If Edmonton loses both games there will be no crossover.

If Edmonton wins 1 and loses 1 a crossover will require either Hamilton or Winnipeg to lose both games.

Am I correct? Have I missed something?

Could BC not also be the crossover team?

Good work DrGeld, assuming you're correct of course!

If Edmonton wins both and either Hamilton or Winnipeg win both of theirs Edmonton would not cross over.

If Edmonton loses this weekend and either Hamilton or Winnipeg win which ever team won their game would not be able to be crossed over on.

If Edmonton wins both they end with 18 points.

If Hamilton wins both they will have 18 points and place 2nd in the East
Winnipeg would have 16 points (since they play Hamilton) and would be 3rd

(It's no different if you switch HAM and WIN)

In that scenario - Edmonton would crossover.

For Edmonton to win both games and not crossover - both Hamilton and Winnipeg would have to win both of their final two games which is impossible.

I honestly can't recall a season where the playoff races have gone down to the wire, usually you have a situation more like the East with a few teams separated from the pack with some meaningless final games and a playoff spot already locked up.

So what happens if BC wins both games and Sask loses it's next game and Sask and Cal tie again?

That would put them all in a tie with 20 points.

Sask would have beaten Calgary in the season series
Calgary would have beaten BC in the season series
BC would have beaten Sask in the season series

In the division it would be

Sask with a 4-5-2 record in the west
BC with a 6-4-0 record in the west
Cal with a 5-3-2 record

IIRC (I could be wrong but I think it goes by division wins to determine first) then BC would end up in first Calgary second and Sask 3rd.

That would be quite the mess, the riders would be 4-4-2 though, not 4-5-2. They would definitely take 3rd with the worst divisional record.

Right my mistake.

True say, I didnt take into account the schedule.

As mentioned, yes BC could also crossover

They would have to lose both games, then they would have the same scenario as the Eskimos splitting their last two games. Either Ham or Win would have to lose their last two games.

is it possible for BC to finish first in the west?

Don't think so, best they could do is 20 points. Unless CGY and SK tie their game, one of those teams will end the season with at least 21. If CGY and SK tie their game, BC wins everything, and SK loses against HAM, then we have a 3 way tie for first.

I'm not positive, but the tiebreaker would go to games among the tied teams

SK would be 3-2-2 for 8 points
CGY would be 2-2-2 for 6 points
BC would be 3-4 for 6 points

(SK and BC played each other 4 times, hence the extra game)

SK would get first
CGY would get second since they won the season series against BC
BC would be third

I could be wrong, I'm not 100% sure what the tie breaker would be.

And who says an 8 team league is too simplistic! Interesting.

I believe the first tie breaker is number of wins. So if the Riders and Calgary tie again and it's a three way tie for first, that'll be two ties vs one win, so BC could finish first that way. Then Riders get second and Calgary gets third.

isnt second tie breaker how many wins/losses in division.. then points.

Trust me, I was schooled on this earlier this year. First tie breaker is total number of wins against all league teams (in other words 2 ties < 1 win). Second is the season series, then points for and against during the season series. Then divisional wins.

Here they all are (http://www.cfl.ca/page/game_rule_tiebreak):

"When two or more member Clubs are tied in the final Division standings at the conclusion of the regular season schedule, preferential ranking for playoff purposes shall be determined on the basis of the following priorities and shall be awarded to the club that:

  1. has won the greater number of games played against all member Clubs of the League or,
  2. has won the greater number of games played against the other tied Club(s) or,
  3. has scored the higher net aggregate of points (i.e. points scored for less points scored against) in games played against the other tied Club(s) or,
  4. has scored the higher net quotient of points (i.e. points scored for divided by points scored against) in games played against the other tied Clubs(s) or,
  5. has won the greater number of games (or percentage of games) played against all member Clubs of the Division or,
  6. has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division or,
  7. has scored the higher net quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division or,
  8. has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League or,
  9. has scored the higher net quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League or,
  10. has won a coin toss against the other tied club."

So in other words with the exception of Montreal 1st in the East , everything else is wide open .

Not quite. We know Calgary and Sask. will play in the West playoffs. And we know Edmonton and BC cannot finish first in the West.

And we know that the Argos have three more wins than the Leafs, but both will be relegated to watching the playoffs on TV.

I hope they are no ties in the final standings this season, period.

and it seems that the info is correct, I just hope that in the last week we get a life or death battle between Winnipeg and Hamilton, that would be fun to watch. :rockin: