No ! I believe the only team that can catch the Bombers who are expected to beat ELKS are the lions, but they would need to win the rest of their games, including against Calgay on Sat. Any other team to over take the Bombers (who would have to lose a couple) for 1st place would also have to win the rest of their games. Not a realistic event. With Bombers taking the "W" from the ELKS they are guaranteed a "Y" at least.
The worst that Winnipeg could do is 8-6.
The best that Sask can do is 10-4.
The best that BC can do is 10-4.
The best that Calgary can do is 9-5.
Any of them right now can mathematically finish first. the only team that can't catch Winnipeg is Edmonton.
Saskatchewan is the only one of the three challengers that has officially lost tiebreak with Winnipeg so they can only afford one more loss. If that loss is to Calgary then Calgary could still finish 8-6 and win tiebreak with Winnipeg, and if in so doing their 2 wins against BC were BC's only losses, BC could also win tiebreak with Winnipeg, so it is still mathematically possible for Winnipeg to finish 4th at 8-6 which would all but certainly cross them over. I'm not going to do the math on that one but it looks like they've already clinched a playoff spot.
A Winnipeg win combined with Calgary loss this weekend clinches at least 3rd place in the west for the Bombers.
The best and worst case math is ok but Calgary plays BC twice and Riders once so the three teams cannot all finish with those records and Winnipeg has a win over both BC and Calgary. Winnipeg won't clinch 1st in the west this week but definitely a playoff spot. Winnipeg will need to wait another week or 2 before wrapping up 1st.
But it IS possible for all 3 teams to finish ahead of Winnipeg even if handing each other losses so long as Winnipeg loses out. BC and Calgary both have a chance to take tiebreak from Winnipeg as well. I laid that out in my post already.
Actually they can't. There's no way that seven other teams can have at least 8 wins at this point. They're in.
And of course they're not going to lose out. Okay it's possible. 2011 swag Bombers went from 7-1 to finish 10-8. 05 Lions went from 11-0 to 12-6, but if the Bombers actually do finish 8-6 there will be a ton of hat eating going on league wide. It's about as likely as a Bomber kicker winning the MoP.
Thank you prairiedog72. I will sleep better tonight knowing that we'll at least make the playoffs. Please break this news gently to the other three teams who still have their noses pressed to the window hoping we fail.
My math and my gut say the Lions are the spoilers in the west. If they beat the Stamps this week there may be a dogfight for second and third in the west. If the Stamps need a win in week 16, I doubt they will get one with Winnipeg wanting a tune up before the bye week.
Gut feeling is every team except Winnipeg, elks, and the Red Blacks will be in a dogfight for playoff spots with everything flip flopping every week and Montreal determining if there is a crossover.