This is the tightest play-off race in many years. There are four teams battling it out for three spots.
These are the odds - ignoring ties and assuming all games have a 50/50 chance of going either way:
Hamilton and Winnipeg - 78% each, slightly better than the 75% chance at the start of the season
BC - 94%
Edmonton - 50%
Edmonton are in the worst position because the tie will go to the East team in a crossover situation, and to BC if those two teams are tied in the West.
The winner of the Hamilton-Winnipeg game guarantees a spot and finishes second in the East, but next week's game is still important to both teams. A win next week moves the odds to 94% and a loss takes it down to 63%.
An interesting scenario would arise if all four teams are tied with 16 points after next week. In that situation a Hamilton-Winnipeg tie would guarantee both teams a play-off spot, and a BC-Edmonton tie would guarantee both teams a spot provided the Ham-Win game isn't tied.
I really must find something better to do with my Sunday mornings.
Montreal can be beaten, they have run out of gas, their secondary has been exposed as highly vulnerable to the long pass, their corner-backs are too small to defend against tall receivers.
Grey Cup here we come, keep the record alive, a Hamilton team has won a Grey Cup in every decade - Go Cats Go.