Play off race - what are our chnaces

This is the tightest play-off race in many years. There are four teams battling it out for three spots.

These are the odds - ignoring ties and assuming all games have a 50/50 chance of going either way:

Hamilton and Winnipeg - 78% each, slightly better than the 75% chance at the start of the season
BC - 94%
Edmonton - 50%

Edmonton are in the worst position because the tie will go to the East team in a crossover situation, and to BC if those two teams are tied in the West.

The winner of the Hamilton-Winnipeg game guarantees a spot and finishes second in the East, but next week's game is still important to both teams. A win next week moves the odds to 94% and a loss takes it down to 63%.

An interesting scenario would arise if all four teams are tied with 16 points after next week. In that situation a Hamilton-Winnipeg tie would guarantee both teams a play-off spot, and a BC-Edmonton tie would guarantee both teams a spot provided the Ham-Win game isn't tied.

I really must find something better to do with my Sunday mornings.

Montreal can be beaten, they have run out of gas, their secondary has been exposed as highly vulnerable to the long pass, their corner-backs are too small to defend against tall receivers.

Grey Cup here we come, keep the record alive, a Hamilton team has won a Grey Cup in every decade - Go Cats Go.

The only way we will make the playoffs is if Edmonton loses their last two games and we automaticly get
a playoff spot without winning another game. because i don't think we can beat SASK and WINN. in their park.

So that's how I see it!

Cheers

We're beating Saskatchewan next week at IWS. Period.

The Sask. game against the cats is in our home park, not only will we win, we will win big.
Doc. 8)

Not if we keep the other team in the game up to the end (like we have been doing)and hope they can't muster a
last minute come back!!! we have been unable to have a strong finish!!!

We can, especially now with Glenn playing QB (no offence intended to Porter).

We certainly can win our next two games but it is certainly not a given like some here would like to believe (even if it is only team boosterism lol) I really don't like our odds. Sask looked pretty darn good and if Bishop is hot we will not stand a chance against the bombers unless Glenn has another 500plus game....
I'm certainly hoping a praying.

Does anyone know if next week's game is going to mean anything to Sask. If not we might have a good shot at beating them.

It could be a very interesting remaining two weeks though to say the least, Winnipeg plays in Montreal and then at Home to Hamilton, The ti-cats play at home to Sask and then on the road in Winnipeg and Edmonton play at home to Toronto and end on the road in BC, all 3 teams have 7-9 records, both Hamilton and Winnipeg have 1 and 1 records against each other including Edmonton, except both Hamilton and Winnipeg have more points in their victories than Edmonton meaning if either team was to end in a tie with Edmonton, Eskies would lose in a crossover.

Also BC is still in a run in the West to stay ahead of Edmonton for the final playoff spot, so the BC Lions and Edmonton Eskimo's game could be crucial to both teams and have implications in the East and especially if Toronto was to beat Edmonton at home and BC won at home, we could see both Hamilton and Winnipeg in the playoffs. Should be a very interesting remaining two weeks, however our fate is definitely in the Cats hands, if we win both remaining games against the Riders at home in Hamilton on Saturday and in Winnipeg on Sunday Nov 8th, we are on our way but sometimes easier said than done.

GO TIGER-CATS GO, LET'S BEAT THE RIDERS AND THE BOMBERS, EAT EM RAW!!!!!!!

As much as I hate to say it, it'd be good for the CFL if Hamilton has a home playoff game.

SSK will have similar motivation to HAM in this game and, perhaps if anything, a bit more. Like HAM’s situation with 2nd place, SSK’s with 1st place is that it will be determined SOLELY by the outcome of their final weekend game against CAL.

But, while HAM CANNOT definitely earn something SOLELY by a victory over SSK (unless EDM loses to TOR the night before), SSK WILL guarantee themselves at least a 2nd place finish SOLELY with a win in HAM. At this point, SSK IS guaranteed a playoff spot but could still finish 3rd behind CAL & BC. In fact, there is still the very slight possibility of a 3-way tie for first in the West, in which BC would get the bye and SSK would play @ CAL in the semi.

That's not what I wanted to hear.

You better believe Saskatchewan will be playing extremely hard. They would like to host the Western final.

The Cats have to play their best game of the season. I think they can do it!!

Wow, tell us what you really think :wink:

I think that’s an overly pessimistic opinion especially with how our team is playing right now. All three teams are playing very well right now. However, I believe, one way or another we’ll be in the playoffs and it won’t be simply because of dumb luck of Edmonton losing.

Next week's game against Sask will be "interesting", if ony because the Riders are a Cup bound team.

Win, lose or draw, the Cats are hoping that the Larks don't throw it to the Spies, which I cannot see on any way

So you get down to the question of whether our team can stuff Bishop and/or can GG beat the Bomber defense.

Bishop has some obvious hurts and he must go through the mill against the Larks again next week, before he faces our defence, and there isn't any second stringer to give Wpg the luxury of "hope"

Its going to get tight, but we may get ino the GC, against all odds. Its going to be "our guys" that decide this, as opposed you or me as "fans", but there you go.

Gonna be a tough game against "Gang Green", and they are stuggling to keep up with Calgary, and so won't yield an inch, but I don't see Montreal lying down at home, either, so it all comes down to Hamilton vs Wpg, and Sask vs Calgary on the last weekend of "Regular Season"

It doesn't get a lot better than this. Remember all those years where we were a laughingstock in the League, underfinanced, and whatnot?

We are past that, and going forward. David Braley wil be the first tickerbuyer to our post season, thus guy deserves every accolade we can give hin.

Actually they don't care what the Als and Bombers do. That game is meaningless to us.

It's interesting when you looked back a few weeks and the Bombers schedule looked so tough to finish, but now that the Al's are resting starters and playing with nothing on the line it looks like they in fact ended up with the easiest schedule.

If Winnipeg wins this week and we lose, they move a game ahead with the last game vs us being the be all end all for second. If we win and Winnipeg loses don't we still have to beat Winnipeg b/c then they would get the tie? If thats right this game is meaningless as far as second place goes. We need a win to make sure Edmonton doesn't move ahead of us though.

think positive we are going to win :smiley:

From the Hamilton Spectator:

  1. Beat Winnipeg on Nov. 8. Result: Host East Division semifinal.

  2. Beat Saskatchewan this week, lose next week and have Edmonton lose of one their last two games (vs. Toronto, at B.C.). Result: Play East Division semifinal in Winnipeg.

  3. Beat Saskatchewan this week, lose next week and have B.C. lose both their last two games (at Calgary, vs. Edmonton). Result: Play East Division semifinal in Winnipeg.

  4. Lose both games, have Edmonton lose their last two games. Result: Play East Division semifinal in Winnipeg

http://www.thespec.com/Sports/article/661047

Kirk Penton in his weekly Sun Media CFL Blitz coloum points out that, with just two games remaining for all teams, the B.C. Lions could still finish last, third, second, or first!

I can't find a link to his article, which I read in hard copy, but he also suggests, quoting Clark Judge of CBSSports.com, that MTL coach Marc Trestman will be the next Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders .