Ottawa's attendance if they stay for '06

I'm pretty optimistic and I hope that the CFL is able to sort out the Renegades ownership/financial problems. But realistically if they did, with only 2,000 season tickets sold thus far, wouldn't their avg. home attendance be embarrasingly low? Take a guess and if the team's still around at the end of the '06 season we'll see who's closest.

I'll go with 12,000.

Some say its only 2000 because tickets are no longer on sale and that is why there are only 2000.

I say it will be the same as last years average of 18493.

If a strong owner is found, then I would guess at 20,000 for this year (with it only to go up). For example, had Melnyk bought the team, I think this would have been a realistic estimate.

If a "no-name" owner (but still competent and committed) buys the team and does a LOT of hard work in the 3 months leading up to the season, then I suspect we could see attendances of about 15,000.

If the CFL takes over the team, while still finding an owner, then attendance probably would be pretty low this season - on the range of 10-12,000. But I would be willing to bet that next year, with an owner in place, and having had the whole off-season to sell season tickets (instead of selling them for 2 weeks, as the Gliebs did), the attendance would shoot up - perhaps even double - for 2007.

If the team plays and if the attendance doesn't fall off from last year, then it would be a reflection of CFL interest in Ottawa.

I guess if Ottawa fans want football they better show up regarless of their teams performance. If this does not occur you can bet no one will buy in that market ever again. You do not go to the games then you do not want the sport in your city it is that simple.

I'm ready to make my part and commit to attend two games at Frank Clair this season.

Ottawa fans HAVE been showing up regardless of their team's performance ... for the past 25 years! When considering the Ottawa attendance issue, you have to always keep in mind the ownership situation, just as you have to with EVERY CFL team. Consider especially Calgary, BC, Hamilton and Toronto. The latter three had worse attendance problems than Ottawa has right now, and Calgary's attendance was declining - and pretty bad - during the F-troop years. Attendance in the CFL seems to be less of a function of the team's performance, and more dependent on the team's ownership.

Then why do so many people say that Ottawa's attendance is low because of "thirty years without a winning season"?

Regardless of the reason for only 2000 season tickets sold, the fact is that time is running out to get that number up to a respectable level. Even if a new owner buys the team today, tells everybody that tickets are back on sale, and opens up the ticket office full force, working overtime, will they be able to get that up to 12k before the first pre-season game? I don't know.

As for a guess at attendance, let's say they sell 10,000 season tickets. If the team is terrible, average attendance would be somewhere in the 15-16000 range. If they are the top team in the east, attendance will be around 23000. I believe these to be reasonable -- even optimistic -- estimates when you consider that, of their 36 regular-season home games, their highest attendance was 26, their FIRST GAME!

just to put it into perspective.......the bombers have 10 times the season ticket base as Ottawa (roughly 20,000 projected this season) and are still on shakey financial ground...........

One of the problems with the CFL, 20,000 season ticket holders should put any team on solid footing in this league IMO.

'm gunna go with 24,000 average on hot (but not too hot) sunny (but not too sunny) days ... if its a weekend game during the day, that nothing else is scheduled for in the city.

Days that it rains, i'm gunna go with 18,000...
Cloudy days, i'm gunna go with 20,000...
Games scheduled on flower parades, i'm gunna go with 16,000.
Games scheduled after 3 weeks on the road, i'm gunna go with 15,000.

and .. depending on the Renegades record at the time of the game .. the further under .500 they are, the further the attendance will drop exponentially (from the base attendance listed above) ...

Further - if, for whatever reason the new Ottawa owners are not liked by the fans (and this is almost a certainity in b!tchville Ontario) ... the fans will slowly dwindle off as the season continues ...

last game of the year (ignoring whatever promo's they have to put on to put a few people in attendance) ... I'm gunna with 12,000 for the final game.

God forbid there is a home game, immediately following a 3 week road trip, on a cold, rainy, saturday afternoon of a flower parade, while the Renegades are playing a pointless game on a 6 game losing streak ...


Also one reason, I believe, that the salary cap in the CFL needs to be low to ensure small markets and stadiums like us here in Hamilton can survive. Heck, it's no longer the good ol' days where people put the CFL and NFL on practically the same pedestal in terms of image as big-time league. The CFL is smaller time, non-major league (which is quite fine and dandy with me BTW) now as the NFL has shot up with the big TV contracts and ability to pay their players big salaries and nice big stadiums etc. (but we still have the better game!) so here is my suggestion to the CFL:

Publicly mandate more and more that we are non-major league and a chance for Canadians to make some money playing a game they love in their country and excellent non-NFL Americans and therefore we can keep the salary cap low to ensure survival for all teams and maybe attract some more good owners. I don't think anyone in the CFL, no one, should be making more than 150,000 per year and the salary cap should be maximum around $2 mill. I still think the league, not as much as before but still, is trying to sell itself as a major-league and this not only isn't the case, I and many others don't need it to be the case to watch and go to CFL games.

if they play, I say 20,000 adv.

The media keeps bringing up this '2000' figure on season tickets. You have to remember they had over 6000 who bought during the $99 season ticket campaign last May - which they were planning on doing again as far as I know. (and should a new owner be found, who knows, maybe they'll do it again). So once up and running again, you can probably count on most of those.....

Anyway - all depends who the owner is, how it is marketed, and how they come out of the gate. If things look like they are moving in the right direction - I'd expect similar numbers to last season. Then with some momentum - better attendance the next season...and so on...

14,243 average. You heard it here first.

The days of the $99 season ticket ended when Lonie Glieberman resigned.

I heard on the Score today that, "it is expected that the league will take over operation of the team in the next few days." While that is "expected", and not "announced", that would explain why they wanted an equipment inventory, and why they fired the coaching staff.

The league will certainly run the team on a tight budget, the way they ran the Ticats and Argos a few years ago. The Renegades will probably be the only team not to exceed the salary cap this year. But they will market the club and handle ticket sales far, far better than any of the previous owners had.

Yes, this is true - and this will help the franchise immensely.

If the Asper family gets involved, they can use thier media outlets here to sell season tickets. A solid ticket drive will boost the numbers!

Hypothetical question, what if Meylnyk, or Urban buy the Team and they only sell 5000 Season tickets? How many years are they expected to get the fans out? Whats the right number?

If Ottawa plays this year, I think this will be the last gasp. If the Ottawa fans support it, then they'll probably continue in Ottawa. If they don't, expect a move to QC or Halifax.

A realistic approach would be to give it 3 years to get to an average of around 24k. However, if from year 1 to year 2 there's not much of an improvement, then this could be the signal that it's over.