Stamps the favourite, Riders a long shot to win Grey Cup
Posted on June 12, 2017 by 3Down Staff
[i]The Riderville faithful might be expecting a big things from their team this season but the odds-makers aren’t so sure.
Betting site oddsshark.com has the Saskatchewan Roughriders at +800, meaning a bet of $100 would win $800 if it came in. The Bombers are also at +800 and only the Toronto Argonauts at +1100 have worse odds.
The Calgary Stampeders are the favourite at +350, followed by the B.C. Lions (+500) and the Edmonton Eskimos (+500). The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and the defending champion Ottawa Redblacks are the top East Division teams at +700.[/i]
The full list:
Calgary Stampeders +350
B.C. Lions +500
Edmonton Eskimos +550
Hamilton Tiger-Cats +700
Ottawa Redblacks +700
Montreal Alouettes +750
Winnipeg Blue Bombers +800
Saskatchewan Roughriders +800
Toronto Argonauts +1200
Not really Grover! Winnipeg is a smoke 'n mirrors franchise - pretty much the last 28 years to be frank.
Lots of talk about being stoic and persistent with the draft, stocking above average hobos as your team superstars - listening to Miguel O'hea or Ky Walters doing local media is extremely painful. They are barely comprehensible and cater to the lowest form of human lemming (their target market)
This season the all-knowing tall foreheads are fantasizing they can slither by using a rounder like Sam Hurl at MLB. They don't have any canuck receivers (unless Joe Poplawski suddenly gives up his insurance practice and comes out of retirement at 61) and their Top 3 draft picks this season have all been busts (or no-shows). #1 Ekakitie is being given a pass as the TC report has him terrified of physical combat, #8 Gray is Green Bay Gray and #15 Spooner isn't exactly getting reps at camp or pre-season.
Richie Hall isn't exactly a genius when it comes to winning defenses. New O-line coach to replace Walrus Wiley and O'Shea bringing his own personal brand of non-winning genius (.365 career winning percentage).
Only reason Miller, Walters & O'Shea are being kept around? They can't find anyone better. Winnipeg has never really had a great president/ceo so Pudge Miller looks like a godsend, barking out daily orders and treating the media like garbage. Walters has adopted the Kevin Chevyldayoff plan (don't say nothing cuz the media might hold you to it) and O'Shea is basically a sideline zombie who likes being the players friend.
If this team comes out of the chute 1-4 or 0-5 I suspect Miller has to can O'Shea and move PLOP back to head coach (Plop = Paul LaPolice for the uninitiated who don't have a copy of my nickname bible). Once they get to mid-season or just past Labour Day and Miller realizes his roster is again infested by hobos, slows, nobos & bobos he'll have to put Kyle Walters down - and hope like heck Jim Barker is still available.
Barker is 5 x the personnel guy that Walters is. (despite that awful situation in TO last season) while Lapolice would give the bombers a fresh look and approach as head coach.
Even with a slow start and Miller pulling the pin on perceived changes - the bombers are no better than a 9-9 squad; 6-12 to 8-10 are their probably records; that's not even factoring in a catastrophic injury to one of their only 'star' players (ie. Nichols or Harris)
The bombers on-field model is based on pep 'n hussle. They are chronically under-powered, canuck weak and will wear down over-used players as the season continues.
Pep 'n Hussle are great traits - but can only get you so far! I'm in complete agreement with the odds-makers on this one. They're actually paying attention!
Billions are bet on sports every year on odds created by oddsmakers.
They would not keep their job very long if they were not somewhat successful in their predictions.
These bookmakers know what they are doing.
As far as WPG being low, it may have something to do with having to come out of the West.
They would have to beat out CGY, BC and EDM or have a tough time getting an East crossover to make the playoffs to even get to the Championship.
These are simply odds that a betting posts to draw bets. They will change often as the season progresses based on how much bettors move the line.
It is more about "reading" the bettors rather than an outright prediction.
Clearly they read the bettors as initially choosing Calgary as the public choice and Argos to be the bettors longest shot. If a ton of money came pouring in on the Argos you would see those odds lower.
For instance in a given game: say Calgary at BC.
A line will be posted by an oddsmaker that seeks to balance the betting. Say BC favored by 3.
Bookmakers make money not by prediction of the game but rather who they draw to bet. Ideally they get a 50-50 split. They then collect on the vigourish ( usually 10%) of the total amount bet on the losing team.
Let's say $200,000 bet on the game. $100,000 on each
So if Calgary wins or loses by less than 3 those bettors win.
BC bettors lose $110,000
House collects $10,000
Bookmakers do not want one side to be predominately bet.
I believe the Bombers signed O’Shea to a 3-year contract extension and Walters also has 3 years left. I doubt they fire either one mid-season as that would necessitate paying out two contracts for both the GM and head coach over the next 2.5 years. Far from ideal for a franchise with a mountain of stadium debt that has to pinch its pennies.
If the team has an absolutely horrible season - say 3 - 5 wins - I can see them canning both at the end of the season eating the next 2 years of salary. Staying with the same twosome who had led the team to 3 of 4 years out of the playoffs would not be palatable to all but a few of the Bomber faithful.
If the team finishes with 7 - 8 wins just out of or just in the playoffs I would be willing to bet they get another year as such a “minor setback” would be excused by the regime for injuries to key players - who doesn’t have those! - and underperformers O’Shea and Walters did not see coming. It would just be viewed as a minor setback or that is how it would be spun.
Bottom line, unless the rest of the team is running on all cylinders with elite players, you will not win a Grey Cup with Matt Nichols as your starting QB…see 1990 Bombers and their last Grey Cup as an example.
Tom Burgess at the helm…about the equal of Nichols. Did some research and outside the kicker, those Bombers blow away the current ones at every position.
2017 O-line is respectable with recent additions like Bond and chungh, but in no way do they compare to the likes of Walby, Mikawos and Bauer from 1990.
2017 running back Harris while a good one and an excellent impact Canadian has never experienced the peak that 1990/91 Bomber running back Robert Mimbs had
2017 receivers has smallish and long-in-the tooth Dressler as their number one guy with pretty much garbage for Canadian receivers. Meanwhile the 1990 edition had future hall of famer Murphy and an actual decent Canadian receiver in Rick House.
2017 linebacker/lineman core has the potential of awful and appropriately named Hurl as the MLB with a declining Wild and a steady Leggett as OLBs, and a good albeit older player in Westerman manning the line. Rest of the line is a bit of a question mark with the likes Okpalwhatever and Denis added to the mix. Back in 1990 the Bomber featured a cast of future hall of famers/all-stars at their positions like Michael Gray, Tyrone Jones, James West and of course 2 -time defensive player of the year, Greg Battle. Battle vs. Hurl at linebacker…hardly a fair comparison is it.
1990 defensive backs vs. 2017. Both are/were ball hawks but the comparison ends there. the 2017 edition will give up a bushel full of yards while the 1990 version was actually excellent at preventing 300+ yards passing in most games. Browne and Hill - 2 all-timers led the way here.
Canadian content and coaching and GMS…again no contest - 1990 blows the current edition out of the water.
I could see the Eskies competing with the Riders for last in the west. Great QBing will not hide the fact the team has poor Canadian depth and they will struggle to replace the production from one of their top receivers from last year. Not much depth either. 9 wins at most but more than likely 7 wins.
Keep spewing your c**p Nate.You have driven every Bomber poster but one off this site ,good old Papa but continue on with your BS.As a Bomber Fan who actually attends all the games I can I love the direction our staff is moving.About the rest,like I said the usual load of horse dung.
But bookies don't make money by picking the winners, they make money by drawing relatively equal bets on all sides so that they don't ever lose big; so a major factor in any betting line is how whether fans of a team bet with "their heart or their head"; higher/longer odds to draw head bettors, lesser/shorter odds for heart betters.
Whoever wrote this might want to get their facts straight as I've seen more skepticism about the team from fellow Roughrider fans then the expectation that very many are expecting "big things".......it's laughable I guess that some inexperienced CFLers think the Roughriders and their fans are the "low hanging fruit" in terms of taking cheap shots at them. Envy really does make some look petty.
I think they have Winnipeg to low. A realistic betting line wouldn't have them below the Als but these betting lines really don't have much in common with reality, they're just a method some use.
It doesn't really matter if the members are smarter than the "experts", the numbers are put out by oddsmakers.
If you think you are smarter than the odds makers then put your money on the team that you think will win the GC.
I think most members would likely put their money on the Stamps, that's what the odds makers have chosen.
If you have money to throw away and you want to risk it then put all your money on the Riders.
A lot of people lost money last Grey Cup, the experts and the smarter members on here all agreed that the Stamps would win the GC.
Lions will take the division barring major injuries. Best receiving core and a dynamic young QB with a good defense. 13 wins.
Calgary has suffered notable losses on the O-line (and elsewhere) the past few years and while they have done an admirable job replacing those bodies it will have finally caught up to them this season. A very good season lies ahead with 12 wins. This will not stop the steadily declining crowds in Cowtown.