Odds on various Bomber finishes

Obviously the Mendoza line with 5 game remaining (2 home, 3 away) is minimum 3 wins (9-9). Here’s Lloyd’s of London odds for final 5-game record:

0-5 - 12%
1-4 - 23%
2-3 - 28%
3-2 - 21%
4-1 - 11%
5-0 - 5%

Main takeway is there’s nearly a 75% chance the bombers will finish 1-4, 2-3 or 3-2. Only one of these 3 records will have a chance to procur a playoff spot.

Club should finish "in the black" as all significant debt has now been written off.

Who says our Premier is a tough guy?
He just handed WAD the debt free keys.
The Bored will get that merlot in the corp box after all.
WAD should be ordering a dozen new 56 shorts ver @ Harry Rosens right about now.

Do these odds take in account that there are other teams ?

Odds don’t look that great as of now… ‘Running the table’ is a next to impossible feat in the west…BUT I’m afraid that’s what we have to do…Shame it’s come to that…HOWEVER put up a win tonight in Edm. and we hang in there…a loss and we’re headed out the door

Even if we lose, even if its a massive stomping at the hands of Reilly & Co. don’t expect O’Shea to come out with anything less than “we’ve got games left & anything can happen”. He’s very good at stoic - brave persona!

On paper the only area the Esks have a significant advantage over the bombers is QB.

Bombers, on paper are actually a slightly better defensive side - neither defense will make star QBs shiver!

Esks have slight advantage at WR - especially with Reilly hoisting up those 35 to 50 yd bombs. Nichol’s bombs seem to mostly be maybe lady luck will let us have one!

O-lines both above league average - neither unit particularly great in giving their QB tons of checkdown time - Reilly however much better than Nichols in escaping, buying time and changing pocket targets

Harris, if on and healthy is better than whatever Esks throw at us. If he’s a bit dinged or his o-line can’t move men against their will, its a toss-up.

Both coaches are moody. O’Shea a stoic braveheart (fake) that is too often lost in over-detailing. Everyone’s prepared at practice - but seldom does the practice perfection carry on during games - too much scattered thoughts, adjustment fails.

Maas probably lets the reins go a bit more - more fluid style - his downfall is his ill and often sick temper. O’Shea is a bottom 3 CFL coach (only Sherman & JJ Jones equal or worse) while Maas is only a notch better!

The problem with these “odds” this early is that each game changes the odds dramatically.
This was a huge win. Confidence booster now going into Ott. and a chance to greatly improve our “odds”.

I’m a believer…again.

Great game. We need to play like this. That’s how I expect the Bombers to play.

Great football day. Watched the Panda Bowl and then any day that BC and Edm lose is a good day for everyone. ;D

Well Edmonton and BC both appear to be tanking at the right for us.

One win in the next 4 should secure a playoff spot for the Bombers. The offence however is going to hold this team back from making any noise.

Nichols won't speak publicly about his o-line anymore, nor any other critical component of his team but:

The obvious breakdown occurs between his seemingly strong o-line giving in to defensive schemes and rushes - Nichols needing to hold onto the ball too long - and get sacked repeatedly - and his WRs failing to pop open on command.

Its a bad triangle. One that won't be solved simply by watching film at the Matheson Rd. Cinema.

Imagine how weak the bomber passing game would be if Dressler wasn't their as the checkoff guy? Adams is OK, Wally Tarski is getting better every game, Peterman managed to replace Demski quite nicely. Thompkins took the night off.

OR Winnipeg and Hamilton both appear to be finding their game

Our O did enough to win. The only criticism should be directed from Edm fans to their O.

This the difference between us Lyle. You always find criticism no matter what. I have criticism ready when needed. I’m not saying that you are not right but today is a happy day. I’m celebrating.

I think our O might have been shocked to find themselves on the field so often and in such good field position. ;D
Edm D was not as bad as predicted. They played pretty good.

He always resorts to name calling and over the top criticism.

……Credit where credit is due…our defence dismantled them and were on a seek and destroy mission…Did someone finally get to Ritchie Hall and explain to him that his style of D was leading us to a lot of ‘tire spinning’…Someone must have because we were ‘rushing’, ‘receiver covering monsters’ out there (and it’s not quite Halloween)…Reilly was suffocated from the start…in fact our hard hitting might have put him out of action for awhile…His arm was hanging very noticeably and his little friend Glenn was warding off all snoopers…Somethings up…The Duke was sent into next week by Sayles with a punishing hit…My guess is he’s done with a separated shoulder…Have to wait for medical reports but in any event it didn’t look too good for the schmoes…Where has this defence been all year?..IF we would have played that kind of shutdown D in that 4 game losing streak…wellll things would certainly look a lot better for us right now…Great time to find ourselves BUT I’ll wait for some repeat performances before I get too elated and hope this isn’t a one game apparition …

….On the down side…Nichols looked like Nichols…Let’s put it this way…his performance was adequate BUT IF our D can continue to play lights out we can make some noise down the stretch

Until he proves me wrong Matt Nichols has to be SUSPECT #1 for off-season trades or outright release.

Team should target (which in bomberland means they’ll fall asleep first) free agent and acquire-by-trade CFL QBs w/ at least 2 yrs in league.

ie. Pipkin, Manziel, Bridge. Jennings (at a severely reduced price), Franklin, Adams, etc.

Perhaps Toronto can use a good game manager to take instructions from Marc Trestman?

Not sure if Streveler ready for next level but I have a hunch he might see significant meaningful snaps down the stretchl; especially in the crossover or WSF should Matty Ice falter!

Why would we want any of these guys ? The only one who we haven’t seen struggle continually is Pipkin but give him time. I DON’T want Jennings ! Franklin was another that was supposed to be the second coming and he fizzled.
I’m happy with Nichols. He’s got zip and accuracy on the ball. He’s our best bet. Injuries on the O haven’t helped.

I have said since square one that we weren’t losing because of our O, we were losing because of the way our D was playing. Look what happens when the D plays and is allowed to play properly. Good pass coverage leads to QB sacks !

I think a Nichols at 100% health is enough to get the current bomber team to the playoffs; crossover or 3rd in west but he’s just not good enough to assert himself as a playoff winner.

Dumping him onto the scrap heap may be risking if you want to make playoffs but the reward may be worth it.

So far, Nichols has proven nothing more than being a tall Kevin Glenn.

Although I admit he did play wonderfully during the bombers last playoff loss to BC last season. He was hindered severely by mediocre bomber coaching down the stretch.

If you can’t secure a solid replacement - I agree - stick with Matt. He’ll get you 7 to 9 wins every day of the week. The thought of Nichols & O’Shea conspiring to win a playoff game is still repugnant.

I agree! Lyall's list of QBs rates from semi-dreadful to much worse.

:o

Let me remind everyone that at one time Mike Reilly, Trevor Harris & AC Calvillo were on similar lists. Someone saw something in all of them - and things worked out. AC is a legit Hall of Famer, Reilly will be enshrined shortly after he retires and while the jury is still out on Trevor Harris - he has the complete tool-kit to win Grey Cups.

And that is the exact reason we should stick with Nichols.

……I see Chris Matthews has signed with the stumps…I don’t know why we didn’t make a play for him as he was once a Bomber and could have made a difference…IF Hufnagel sees something in him to help his club toward the Cup…what’s wrong with us…2 receivers who could have been difference makers signing elsewhere and we haven’t said boo…Guess we’re happy with what we have…guys like dropsie Lankford and Washington