Week 10 – Hamilton beat Ottawa by 14
Week 19 – Hamilton wins season series with a win, or a loss by less than 14 points.
If Hamilton finishes ahead of Ottawa, they will host a playoff game, no matter what else happens.
To finish ahead of Montreal
If Hamilton wins the season series: 5
If Montreal wins the season series: 6
Week 3 – Hamilton beat MTL by 31 points.
Week 4 – Hamilton lost to MTL by 7 points
Week 20 – Ham wins season series with a win or a tie.
If Hamilton finishes ahead of MTL, it almost certainly means they finished ahead of OTT, and will host the Eastern Final.
Montreal To finish ahead of Ottawa
If MTL wins season series: 4
If MTL loses season series: 5
Week 5 - MTL beat OTT by 17
Week 8 - MTL lost to OTT by 3
Week 21 - MTL wins season series with a win or a tie.
To finish ahead of Toronto
If MTL wins season series: 3
If MTL loses season series: 4
Week 11 - MTL beat TOR by 6
Week 19 - MTL wins season series with a win, or a loss by less than 6 points.
Unless Ottawa can somehow get into first or second place, they have to worry about the crossover. The crossover team must have more wins than the team they replace. Their tragic numbers (thanks to Belize City Lion over on Lionbackers for this term) are:
Winnipeg’s magic number to finish ahead of Ottawa: 2
Saskatchewan’s magic number to finish ahead of Ottawa: 4
Calgary’s magic number to finish ahead of Ottawa: 5
Edmonton’s magic number to finish ahead of Ottawa: 5
Unless Toronto can somehow get into first or second place, they too have to worry about the crossover. Their tragic numbers are:
Winnipeg’s magic number to finish ahead of Toronto: 1
Saskatchewan’s magic number to finish ahead of Toronto: 3
Calgary’s magic number to finish ahead of Toronto: 3
Edmonton’s magic number to finish ahead of Toronto: 4 (fixed - sorry about that!)
I think it’s 4. A tie goes to TOR, since EDM would need to have a better record to cross over.
I would really love to see EDM collapse and fail to make the playoffs. My reasons:
Western fans are so smug. They just assume a cross-over will happen every year, and that it is the easiest route to the Grey Cup despite that happening exactly zero times.
Maas is annoying.
They couldn’t build their own team so instead they raided star players from others, notably OTT and HAM.
Dean and Unamba should have stayed with us. They bolted for a few extra dollars, so it would be funny if HAM’s playoff pay can make up the difference.
T. Harris and Ellingson need to experience some heartache.
EDM has been rated way too highly all season given that they can’t win against good teams.
It’s better for football in the East to have Eastern teams playing in the post-season.
If EDM is eliminated it means probably HAM beats them twice.
TOR has been rallying and has an outside chance to finish strong. They play CAL, SSK, BC, OTT, MTL, OTT, HAM. They have to win at least 4 of those games if EDM loses the rest of theirs, and more for every game that EDM wins.
EDM plays HAM, OTT, HAM, BC, SSK, SSK. It’s hard to imagine them losing all of those games, so I probably will not get my wish. But wouldn’t it be an epic collapse for the ages if they did!
(Also I assume OTT is done, even though they have one more win than TOR.)
Agree 100% with you. Western fans need to shut up about the crossover.
Looking at Toronto's remaining games, they have a real shot to beat BC, OTT, possibly MTL & possibly us if we've got 1st sewn up by the last week. Moore may even get the start or half the game if that happens.
EDM is going to have their hands full with us, Sask & possibly BC.