NFL Offseason 2013: Draft & Free Agency

The draft is looking thin at all positions but for on either side of the line.

Teams will have to pay top if not record dollars for quality free agents given the thin draft but for linemen as they otherwise try to scout the value picks in lower rounds or bring along the rare hidden gems who are now developing undrafted or unrestricted free agent on any given practice roster.

Note below some feedback as I sent to a friend on how free agency is looking at many positions.

Below are whom I see as lucrative or appealing picks without looking at the financial situation as is going to be expensive for some of these players.

I don't know the OL's too well, and the lists for DL's and DB's are too long. Maybe you have a look?
http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/freeagents/fa.php

The field is only deep at receiver of the positions I review. Pass rushing LBs in the CFL would continue to attract interest also based on these observations.

I don't list any Restricted Free Agents, as they usually don't go anywhere because they are bid up even if another team makes a high offer:

QB - Marginal

Chase Daniel (spread offense only)
Matt Moore

RB - Easiest Position To Fill On Offense But Hard To Find Quality

Reggie Bush

WR

Danny Amendola
Dwayne Bowe
Brian Hartline
Andrew Hawkins
Domenik Hixon
Greg Jennings
Emmanuel Sanders
Mike Wallace
Wes Welker

TE

Martellus Bennett
Fred Davis
Tony Gonzalez (now 97% sure he's retiring, but I want the odds that he won't so I can bet on them because he is still a top TE and there is a shortage at this position especially for athleticism in actual play not just at some workout or combine)

LB

Dwight Freeney (or 4-3 DE)
Paul Kruger (or 4-3 DE)
Rey Maualuga

Hopefully a Real QB will become available for the Jags .. just wishin'

Dawg, what's the local word if any on Mike Reilly?

It's either Reilly or you go back to Gabbert lest you really want to stick with Henne. I don't see the point in Moore or Daniels in free agency, but they have more NFL experience than does Reilly right?

Or do you want to start fresh with Geno Smith or Matt Barkley via the #2 pick in the draft or a trade down to get one of them?

In this QB shortage as is only getting worse, a team rebuilding from next to zero either has to empty most of its pockets for some quality or be a beggar and not even close to a chooser.

JAX should draft a QB, I dont care that there are no andrew lucks or RG3s. Gabbert is so terrible.

The QBs are all being downgraded by the draft analyst types, but this is the same tired rhetoric every year through the NFL Combine in a month. In the end the scouts do not seem to stick with the analysts, and at the time of the draft some of the analysts change tune too.

Now everyone is trying to find the next guy drafted too low who has started or is starting like Kaepernick, Wilson, Dalton, Yates, Cousins, and Flynn.

Then after the workouts in March and April before the draft, team interest pops but they try to mute their interest as the poker match begins. Then some of the hype makes the media to juice ratings when everyone who otherwise is not into college basketball or The Masters golf tournament has little else in sports to look at as the weather turns for the better on at least some days in much of the country.

Then teams that draft QBs almost all draft them higher than their actual talent because there are just not many of them.

All it takes is one or two scout teams to grow giddy.

How else would you explain the likes of first round NFL draft picks like the following busts and less than mediocre players since 2005? I picked that year because the last truly great class was in 2004 as included Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger in that order.

The number to the right is how may QBs were drafted in the first round. Imagine the millions down the drain!

2005-3: Jason Campbell (Alex Smith until 2011, but not all his fault with so many coaching changes)
2006-3: Vince Young, Matt Leinart
2007-2: Jamarcus Russell #1, Brady Quinn
2008-2: None - Good job by the scouts
2009-3: Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010-2: Tim Tebow (Still too early on Sam Bradford, but I never thought "Wow" about him yet as also the #1 pick)
2011-4: Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder
2012-4: Too early to tell on Tannehill and Weeden, but Andrew Luck and RGIII already are shining as stars

There's good value and depth in the draft and in free agency at DE, which is usually a hard position to fill given that most guys are either too short or move over to DT.

The depth of NFL free agents at WR is high, but those guys will be signed for cheap.

The draft is not particularly impressive at WR as far as elite or top NFL talent, but the pool is deep and someone is going to end up with a steal in the second or third round.

[url=http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/story/21670543/big-board-2013-combine-should-help-answer-lingering-questions]http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/stor ... -questions[/url]

Other than for linemen for which this draft should be one of the best ever, this is the most hyped NFL draft in many years.

Many of these guys in the first round who are not linemen would not be first-rounders in most draft years.

The reality of this year's draft makes free agents that much more valuable and expensive.

My Eagles have agreed to a re-structured deal with Mike Vick for 2013. 1 yr deal worth up to $10m. I dont mind it, to be honest with the draft class sucking for QBs.

Also I was thinking they should draft a offensive lineman with the 4th pick but there are so many good tackles that are free agents this year that could be cheaper I am not sure what they should do.

From the list of key free agents below and from the Super Bowl as some of you probably noticed as well as during the entire playoffs, note that for financial reasons that the Ravens will part with Paul Kruger. I'm sure many a team with a 3-4 will pay millions for his pass-rushing skills from the strong side.

[url=http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000137611/article/paul-kruger-wants-to-remain-with-baltimore-ravens]http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... ore-ravens[/url]

Of course I'd love to see him with my Indianapolis Colts!

Oh no for sure I don't mind even if I were to disagree on that topic but I agree with you.

The opinion on the pool of QBs is becoming mainstream too:
http://forums.cfl.ca/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=64791#p1451299

And now we have new trade talk on Percy Harvin in whom I think another team should find value but they'll pay too much:

[url=http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000137949/article/five-potential-landing-spots-for-percy-harvin]http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... rcy-harvin[/url]

Yeah it'll be interesting to see what happens with Harvin.

Word is that if the Ravens pay Flacco legitimately as elite and want to keep Boldin, who in my view is invaluable to their offence, Krugman is the odd man out.

Yeah they need Boldin and he prolli has a solid 3 years left in him. I was surprised that it was only 2009 that Boldin was traded to Baltimore because it seems soooooo long since he was a Cardinal in AZ.

[url=http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000139900/article/kansas-city-chiefs-gm-john-dorsey-no-top-qb-in-draft]http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... b-in-draft[/url]

The bleak reviews on this QB draft class continue.

Recently I looked back all the way to 1999 for draft classes, and note that an AVERAGE of about ONE QB per year who becomes a solid starter or even a star is found in OTHER THAN the first round. Some years are missed and some have multiple guys found in lower rounds, but that's the average for the position.

http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb

The classes of 2011 and 2012 ended up somewhat deep for solid starters and/or looming stars from the looks of it, so the way the average works out since 1999, and especially since the stacked class of 2004, this draft looks to be a seriously down year for QBs.

Now we have to wonder even more who amongst the free agents or second and lower tier QBs will step up their game.

DE Dwight Freeney is a hot commodity:

[url=http://theredzone.org/BlogDescription.aspx?EntryID=32954]http://theredzone.org/BlogDescription.a ... ryID=32954[/url]

And you know just how weak is the QB class when this is the review of the top prospect at QB, Geno Smith:

[url=http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog/rob-rang/21761086/2013-nfl-combine-geno-smith-fails-to-wow-during-passing-drills]http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/blog ... ing-drills[/url]

Word is otherwise that Alex Smith ends up in Kansas City and Matt Flynn ends up in Jacksonville.

We'll find out in March.

There is one more day of the combine, and we'll see what kind of talent is in place amongst cornerbacks now that the value placed on the safety position has diminished.

This is the year for teams to beef up big, for the talent is thin and/or lacking at all other positions.

By my count, there are 7 OLs and 14 DLs who will go in the first round. That's 21 out of 32 picks who will be linemen.

If you are into linemen, this should be the best draft of your life.

If you are like most fans, I think this draft will be the most boring in a very long time.

[url=http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-on-football/21773705/2013-nfl-combine-shamarko-thomas-eats-it-still-runs-438-40]http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/eye-o ... uns-438-40[/url]

This guy Shamarko Thomas gave it his all to run a 4.38 so hats off to him for that let alone getting up so quickly after the face plant!

In discussion, largely because he was so overpaid after being drafted so high in the first round in 2008, is Darius Heyward-Bey, but he has unimpressive overall numbers though was with a lousy team and dysfunctional organisation at the Raiders:

[url=http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000153543/article/report-darrius-heywardbey-will-visit-detroit-lions]http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap100000 ... roit-lions[/url]

Someone's looking to pick him up at a bargain price, and I never knew that at 6-2 216 with speed that he was such a prototype.

Given his prototype, he's had only one decent season though.