Here's an article by Bucky Brooks on the NFL site that reviews the 2007 NFL draft and my comments on it to a friend. Good stuff to keep in mind when watching the NFL draft combined with the approximate prototype list below.
[url=http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d8178e5fc&template=with-video-with-comments&confirm=true]http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000 ... nfirm=true[/url]
Great article here amidst much of the senseless draft fodder overall.
Note on this reshuffle by Bucky Brooks the following:
One third (Mike Sims-Walker), one fourth (Tanard Jackson) , and two fifth rounders (Celek, Breaston) make the list. All these are not near stars of course, but they are featured players and starters except with Breaston likely to be involved in 4-receiver spread sets as the backup third or fourth slotted receiver anyway. All four of these guys but Breaston are prototypes in spec's.
All 26 out of the 31 others, excluding Russell, are first and second rounders. That tells us a lot about how good the NFL scouts are you know?
Amazingly that tells us also a lot about the high odds against anything third round or less becoming a starter within three years in the NFL!
As an example there is bias against safeties for a notoriously short career, probably near 3 years on average, of the average NFL defensive back as examing the list on Pro Football Reference. Man if I were a great athlete like this year too many prospects at safety though not enough at cornerback, I would be pissed off probably after 3 years of special teams and getting beat up if I were not starting too you know? That assumes as for a certain percentage that one has not suffered an injury such that speed is lost forever too.
Interestingly along those lines, note the increased rarity of 4.45 speed for CB compared to only 4.60 speed for safety that is in abundance though still quite the speed for guys from 200-230 pounds playing safety or any position for that matter. And then note the next echelon's even higher rarity has 4.35 for guys who are more than just track stars (high track speed, marginal comparable lateral agility indicating lack of core lateral and hip strength as required to play football of any kind).
Of course most notably the #1 pick JaMarcus Russell in 2007 is the next Ryan Leaf though far more expensive. He makes me wonder when we'll hear about his involvement in a crime and/or in some drug bust?
I checked at random some of the players on Brook's list including whose names I did not know to find out how many were not "prototype" who made the list. Only THREE examples I could find were under the prototype, Ted Ginn (picked 7th likely due to high speed), Breaston (5th round) and Jarvis Moss.
Two others are one oversized athletic freak OLB/DE picked in the second round plus one notable prototype that apparently slipped through in the first round as a merely outstanding workout performer yet apparently is awful in game time when you examine his stats for whenever he even manages to get into the game.
Only more evidence here that no matter what lest they want to put their jobs on the line for a serious error, NFL scouts will stick to the prototype in the first two rounds. Of course as I have argued this is out of control for sake of the WR position lately since Michael Irvin.
Whoever chose Breaston now looks like a genius provided he did not make a bunch of screwups otherwise. Whoever chose undersized Jarvis Moss in the first round really looks bad perhaps and might be out of a job with the Packers and coaching or scouting somewhere else. That also definitely true for whomever chose Ted Ginn Jr as the 7th pick. And whoever chose Harrell I bet still has a job lest he really screwed up more prototypes.
-Ted Ginn Jr., 5-11 180 -- His main flaw seems to be suspect hands and he's only 5-11 180 at receiver but a solid return man, making him yet another "go route" undersized crap shoot receiver pick perhaps going bust, but usually those guys are chosen much, much later in the draft not with all the money due someone as the 7th pick! The jury is out on him as a receiver for perhaps two more seasons I say, as he's been traded. I am far more optimistic at him having a long career as a solid return man in any case.
•Steve Breaston, 6-0 189 -- small in weight but seems to play bigger with long legs and long arms doesn't he? He's originally from Pittsburgh mind you, so he must have been a PA star.
•LaMarr Woodly, 6-2 265 -- That's massive for an outside linebacker though he does play to be fair in a 3-4, so really he's an OLB and DE. But to have that kind of size and probably be faster than Brandon Jacobs the biggest RB at the same weight(not FB)?
•Jarvis Moss, likely bust, 6-7 257 -- He is evidence that height and long arms without mass at DE will get you thrown around by massive tackles with strong hands to make you ineffective despite your otherwise likely awesome athleticism. Jason Pierre Paul in this year's draft at 6-5 270? Pierre Paul would not work in a 3-4 for the most part in my view, but he's got enough potential and fundamentals and high athleticism to keep him on as a future feeature player in a 4-3. I bet you for example that Woodly above would eat him alive whether playing OLB or DE in either a 3-4 or 4-3 though.
•Justin Harrell, likely bust, 6-4 320 -- Prototype for a 3-4 NT or 4-3 DT yet proof here that having the impressive frame and strengh are not enough to play defense if apparently you don't have enough game athleticism.
Correction to previous post. One of the guys, Steven Turner, on that NFL draft site is not from Wilfrid Laurier but went to Bishop's. More on him in the E-Camp post, as NFL scouts are watching him already given the shortage of extreme speed (sub 4.36) combined with lateral agility (not just track speed) in the NFL. Whether he would be the next Ted Ginn Jr. or alternatively DeSean Jackson in the undersized receiver and KR category if even ever in the NFL is the core question, but no doubt he will NOT be a first or second round pick that in my opinion is way too high to choose an undersized receiver all the same.