McManus' string of eight 4,000 yard seasons

With the season just ending, we've had exactly 3 QBs throwing for 4,000 yards or more.

At this point I will remind everyone that [b]Danny McManus holds the record of 8 consecutive 4,000 yard seasons /b. This was an amazing feat of consistency and endurance, since missing even a few games in any of those seasons would have made it that much harder to reach 4,000.

Here's some number crunching to put this in perspective:

  • Since 1999, there has been an average of just under 4 QBs hitting this threshold each year - with a peak of 6 in 2000 and a low of 2 in 2001.

  • Let's suppose that in any given year, each of the 8 or 9 starting QBs has a 50% chance of being one of the guys that surpasses 4,000 yards. That means the odds of doing it two years in a row are 25%, three years in a row 12.5%, etc. And the odds of hitting that mark for 8 consecutive seasons are 0.4%.

  • In 11 years as a starter, McManus had a total of 9 seasons with 4,000 yards or greater. In comparison, the combined total of all the current starting QBs from the four western conference teams is 10. The combined total from the four starting QBs in the east (which includes Allen and Calvillo, and their combined 35 seasons) is 12.

However you slice it and whatever you think of Danny as a player, it is undeniable that this record is pretty impressive. I don't think it ever got mentioned often enough, in comparison to, say, the string of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons by Terry Vaughn or even Kelvin Anderson.

Hats off to Danny!

Great post Pat !!!!

Illogical

just out of curiosity, how many of those 4000 yrd seasons did he get without Darren??

How? The math is right.

It is however the probability that one will accomplish the feat at the outset. As 4,000 yard seasons accumulate, it’s still a 50% chance (using this example) each new season that the QB will get his next one… though perhaps the odds should be better for someone who’s done it numerous times. :wink:

Well done Danny. CFHoF awaits. :thup:

Great post ExPat. Danny is great and does not get enough recognition for his accomplishments IMO.

BTW, the math looks right to me too.

If you elaborate on why you think it's illogical I can try to respond. My calculation is admittedly a vast simplification that ignores a lot of variables (e.g. a particular QB's past record, supporting cast, and the team's style of offence), but at its most basic level it is an accurate calculation of the odds of any one individual being in the top half of performers in a given year. It's identical to the odds of a coin toss coming up "heads" eight times in a row, though obviously the coin toss is a random event and a QB's stats are dependent on many things.

If you think 0.4% is a ridiculously low probability, well, that's why it has only happened once in the entire history of the CFL. Figure out how many starting QBs there have been over the years and it's likely in the ballpark.

I'm not a statistician and can't comment on the calculation of odds. What is indisputable though, is that Danny Mac set an amazing record, equalled by no one else. He's a class quarterback and person, very well deserving of the Hall of Fame entry that is sure to come soon.

Therefore you have painted a deceptively exaggerated picture of feat.

Aside. Danny has sufficient credentials to warrant a Hall of Fame bust.

I hate reading threads that degenerate into arguments, so I won't drag this out. It's an impressive feat any way you look at it. I definitely agree on your "aside".

I agree that Danny should be recognized as one of the greartest and that many variables are missing in forming this assumption.

The missing variables, however do not detract from the fact, that Danny was one of the greatest passers in CFL history.

I gave up on Danny in 2003, but mainly due to his immobile performances. My preference for a new quarterback had little to do with his passing performance. (Except for his numerous interceptions)

I would hope that the new head coach would see value in bringing Danny in as a QB coach, and that would assume, of course, that Danny is ready to retire and has a desire to return to Hamilton in that capacity.

Another good post, ExPat!

I'm 100% sure there is only a 0.4% chance Danny won't make it to the Hall of Fame.. :smiley: :wink:

Oski Wee Wee,

Stats can be made up and used to prove almost any point. 87% of all people know that!

there is at least 1% more morons in this world than there should be :twisted:

Sorry, when I first read your comment I somehow misinterpreted it as a swipe at Danny. I just realized it was an actual question.

The answer is one, in 2004. His eight other 4,000-yard seasons all included Darren Flutie. (Just one of the reasons I voted for them as the top QB-receiver tandem in history.)

There are “lies, damn lies, and statistics” which according to the BBC ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/A1091350 ) was attributed to Mark Twain.

I think the original odds calculated by “Pat” here are logical to me and are the exception to Twain’s famous quote. Some of the others in this thread though I’m not as sure of… :lol:

thats a damn lie

Back to Danny's stats. I believe he was the best pure passing QB the league has ever produced. With his lack of mobility he still managed to succeed. I believe we may have challenged for a playoff spot if he had played for Hamilton this year instead of Maas

I believe he was the best pure passing
wow...thats quite the statement.

Dieter Brock, (even tho I didnt like him)

I would even take Kerrigan over Danny in that category.

I am sure other posters could name a number of other QBs more worthy of that title.

Best EVER pure passer...surely you jest. How many ints did he throw again.

Danny and Darren worked magic together, but...best pure passer??? wow!

I think you are right .
Looks like danny will be in the playoffs and
WE WON'T.