law of averages

Hamilton Tiger-Cats
#1

Over the course of a long season things will even out...it's a mathematical statistic...sort of. We have taken a lot of ill advised penalties at the worst time...this should even out in the 2nd half. The other guys should now be taking dumb penalties.

We have had a lot of misreads, dropped balls, incorrect patterns being run and mental mistakes so far. This too should even out in our favour as the season progresses.

1-6 indicates a horrible state of affairs to be sure. However, this is not like Winnipeg of last year where there was no hope. We have not lost every game buy 20-30 points. A loss is a loss yes, by one point or by 30 points but we've been close in some of them. The law of averages is on our side...it just can't continue as it has. As a bonus, this year 1-6 is okay. Go figure.

6 wins may be good enough to squeak in and that's all we are looking for...to get in. Beatt the West crossover in a nail biter then smoke the Argos at the SkyDome and then its off to the Grey Cup. Yes Hamilton, it is that simple.

#2

The second and likley last spot in the East playoffs will go to the team out of the three eastern ugly sisters that wins the most head to head matchup in that group (there are seven of them remaining).

#3

It really is, almost that simple.

Qualify for Post-season over OTT and MTL, and win two games to go to the cup.

Here's the thing; can a healthy Collaros get us passed a western cross-over team, and a Ricky Ray, Chad Owens TOR offence?

and, having lost each, and EVERY game this year against western opponents... would we be competitive, if lucky enough to get to the big dance? or would we see replay of a 2013 melt-down?

#4

Montreal has QB and depth issues
Hamilton has Protection and QB issues
Ottawa has Receiver and defensive back issues.

Its kind of a race between those 3 how well and quickly they can improve those areas. I am favoring Ottawa. A lot easier to find receivers than Quarterbacks and offensive linesmen. But really could be any of the three step sisters…

#5

Before LeFevour went down, I had absolutely no doubt. I still maintain that this is a very good team, with one and now two injured QBs and some downright bad luck. Not an excuse for losing, just saying.

With LeFevour or Collaros, I think we're superior to Montreal and Ottawa and I think we beat Toronto too. Question is will Masoli improve? If he doesn't, we'll lose, and we may have lost too much ground by the time we get Collaros back.

#6

I felt the same about the Cats pre-injury to LeFevour as well. I agree with your analysis as to the Cats strength when compared to the other East Div, teams.

As much as I like Jeramiah, I don't think any one expects him to carry the team and turn the corner on the win loss record over the long term. Which means that when Zack can play again, he most certainly has to be as good or better than he was expected to be this season or else the Cats are in some serious trouble.

#7

Nice to be optimistic but I think fixing the QB situation in Hamilton and Montreal is a lot harder than fixing the receiver/DB problem in Ottawa. I think that Ottawa will fix their problems a lot easier and take second place and host a western crossover.
The season will end with Ottawa - 6 wins and Hamilton with 5, Mtl with 4 or 5

#8

We'll see. Just because the law of averages "should" work out, doesn't mean that it "will" work out.

It worked out for the 2005 Eskimos and the 2011 Lions, but there are bad teams at the end of every season that can point to a few close losses and wonder what could have been.

The positive, however, is that this team may only need a couple wins over Montreal and Ottawa to get in to the playoffs. You never know.

#9

Quite Dreaming.....We're going nowhere fast. Because Collaros is going to struggle when he gets back,and he may not
get back in time anyway to make a difference. Collaros was dangerous when he scrambles, I think that part of his
diversity will be somewhat lacking after his injury. JMO

#10

I'm not sure about the "law of avg's" and how everything evens out in the end. The ticats are 1-6 and of the 6 losses only 1 was convincing (Saskatchewan) the remaining 5 losses were by a td or less, so by the law of avgs the ticats need to win 5 games that are close and their record should be around 9-9, 8-10 or with some luck 10-8, but I think realistically they'll be 6-12, which goes against the law of averages, we'll see.

#11

The law of averages works better with something like coin flips but if we take it to football, suppose for example (and just as an example) it is accepted that the Cats played and will play well enough to have a 50% prior chance of winning each game but have been unlucky so far and only won the one. Then the law of averages applied to this example suggests that their luck will be average over the next 11 games (not the whole 18 games) so that the best prediction is that they would win about half of those, putting them at five or six more wins.

Of course their prior chance of winning a game may change over the season depending on lots of things: the QB situation, the quality of opposition, home vs. away etc. etc.