If the Playoffs Were to Start Today ....

"If the playoffs were to start today ..."

I've always found that an intriguing phrase. Of course, the playoffs would never start on the day in question so It's a rather pointless notion. Nonetheless, over the years I've developed a little thing that I call a 'projection' system. It's quite meaningless - at least as meaningless as a power ranking - but it can also be quite fun. This is how it works.

After each week's games you start with the phrase, "If the playoffs were to start today ..." You take the standings and work out the playoff matches. Then you project the winners of the playoff matches based upon head-to-head records so far in the season. You continue this process until you have a projected Grey Cup Champion.

That's the basic idea. In more detail, many head-to-head matchups are a dead heat, especially early in the season when most teams haven't played each other yet, so the winners of the matchups are determined as such:

i) head-to-head record (wins and losses)
ii) head-to-head OT (example if a season series is split 2-2, but one of the games went into OT, then the team that needed OT for one of their wins would LOSE the matchup)
iii) head-to-head aggregate (NOT counting any points scored in OT)
iv) the team higher in the standings according to the league's tiebreak rules (basiclly this means that a 4th place team crossing over with a better record than the 2nd place team that hosts them would win)
v) the home team

Anyways, like I said, quite meaningless, all in fun. I'd like to update this thread every week with the new projection to potentially answer the question "If the playoffs were to start today ..." Here goes.

for reference: the league standings tiebreak rules

a) has won the greater number of games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
b) has the higher winning percentage in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then,
c) has scored the higher net aggregate of points (i.e. points scored for less points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then,
d) has scored the higher net quotient of points (i.e. points scored for divided by points scored against) in all games played against all of the other tied Club(s), then,
e) has the higher winning percentage in all games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
f) has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
g) has scored the higher quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the Division, then,
h) has scored the higher net aggregate of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
i) has scored the higher net quotient of points in games played against all member Clubs of the League, then,
j) has won a coin toss against the other tied Club.

Note: If two Clubs remain tied after other Club(s) are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step a).

** Also add that these tiebreakers are adequate for the final season standings, but still do not always resolve tiebreaks earlier in the season, so if needed, the final mid-season tiebreak shall be decided by me by the casting of lots (coin flip, drawing of straws etc).

Week 1 - Admittedly, the first week or 2 of this is a bit boring as everything is decided by aggregate (method iv) until we build up some head-to-head records. It gets more interesting by week 3 or 4 until at least week 10 or 12 or longer if one or two teams don't dominate.


                                           STANDINGS

                                          WEST   EAST
                             Edmonton 1-0  +14   +8   1-0 Winnipeg
                             Calgary  0-1   -2   +4   1-0 Montreal
                     British Columbia 0-1   -4   +2   1-0 Toronto
                         Saskatchewan 0-1  -14   -8   0-1 Hamilton

           Calgary and British Columbia win tiebreak from Saskatchewan by method e)
                   Calgary wins tiebreak from British Columbia by method h)
                 Winnipeg wins tiebreak from Montreal and Toronto by method e)
                       Montreal wins tiebreak from Toronto by method h)

                                           MATCHUPS

                            WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                    British Columbia @ Calgary   Toronto @ Montreal
Calgary defeats British Columbia by method iv)   Montreal defeats Toronto by method iv)

                                 WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                            Calgary @ Edmonton   Montreal @ Winnipeg
        Edmonton defeats Calgary by method iv)   Winnipeg defeats Montreal by method iv)

                                           GREY CUP
                                     Edmonton vs Winnipeg
                            Edmonton defeats Winnipeg by method iv)

So, If the playoffs were to start today .... Edmonton would be the Grey Cup Champions.

:D

This maybe true in 2014 at Winnipeg 8)... I do see your logic prairiedog72 as one "CANNOT" get enough of CFL Football.

the grey cup would be at Empire and the Lions would pull off the same exciting run from 3rd place as they did in 94.

Results from week 2 are in ...


                                          STANDINGS

                                         WEST   EAST
                            Edmonton 2-0  +32   +14  2-0 Winnipeg
                            Calgary  1-1 even   +18  2-0 Montreal
                    British Columbia 0-2   -6   -4   1-1 Toronto
                        Saskatchewan 0-2  -28   -26  0-2 Hamilton

                British Columbia wins tiebreak from Saskatchewan by method f)
                      Winnipeg wins tiebreak from Montreal by method e)

                                          MATCHUPS

                           WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                   British Columbia @ Calgary   Toronto @ Montreal
Calgary defeats British Columbia by method i)   Montreal defeats Toronto by method i)

                                WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                           Calgary @ Edmonton   Montreal @ Winnipeg
        Edmonton defeats Calgary by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Montreal by method iv)

                                           GREY CUP
                                     Edmonton vs Winnipeg
                            Edmonton defeats Winnipeg by method iv)

So, If the playoffs were to start today .... Edmonton would still be the Grey Cup Champions.

Please do this every week!

I'm a little bit behind. Will update tonight.

Week 3 results ...


                                   STANDINGS

                                  WEST   EAST
                     Edmonton 3-0  +48   +41  3-0 Montreal
                     Calgary  2-1   +1   +13  2-1 Winnipeg
                 Saskatchewan 0-3  -58   +4   1-2 Hamilton
             British Columbia 0-3  -22   -13  1-2 Toronto

        Saskatchewan wins tiebreak from British Columbia by method f)
               Hamilton wins tiebreak from Toronto by method f)

                                   MATCHUPS

                    WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                     Toronto @ Calgary   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
  Toronto defeats Calgary by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                         WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                    Toronto @ Edmonton   Winnipeg @ Montreal
Edmonton defeats Toronto by method iv)   Montreal defeats Winnipeg by method iv)

                                    GREY CUP
                              Edmonton vs Montreal
                    Edmonton defeats Montreal by method iv)

So if the playoffs were to have started a couple days ago ... :stuck_out_tongue: Esks still on top but verrrry interesting playoffs.

Keep it up! This is actually pretty fun to keep up with. :slight_smile:

Yes, surprisingly it is. When I came up with this little theory a few years back I thought it was a bit silly, but it just grew on me and now I have to do it after each week.

Week 4 and the results are in. Very close atop the East as Winnipeg took Montreal to 'divisional quotient of points' before conceding first - and in fact Montreal only takes it because they've only played one divisional game by a blowout giving them an unrealistic quotient (40 / 17 = 2.353~), even though Winnipeg is 3-0 in the division. Meanwhile out west, Saskatchewan squeezes into the virtual playoffs for the first time setting up a very interesting situation for next week - if they can beat the Stamps in Week 5 they'd be in 2nd and would advance to the West Final.


                                       STANDINGS

                                      WEST   EAST
                         Edmonton 4-0  +53   +38  3-1 Montreal
                         Calgary  2-2   -4   +22  3-1 Winnipeg
                     Saskatchewan 1-3  -55   +12  2-2 Hamilton
                 British Columbia 0-4  -30   -22  1-3 Toronto

                   Montreal wins tiebreak from Winnipeg by method g)

                                       MATCHUPS

                        WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                    Saskatchewan @ Calgary   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
Calgary defeats Saskatchewan by method iv)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                             WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                        Calgary @ Edmonton   Winnipeg @ Montreal
     Edmonton defeats Calgary by method i)   Montreal defeats Winnipeg by method iv)

                                        GREY CUP
                                  Edmonton vs Montreal
                        Edmonton defeats Montreal by method iv)

So, if the playoffs were to start today, Edmonton would be the Champs. Same result but potential for big change next week.

Week 5, Montreal bows out early!


                                      STANDINGS

                                     WEST   EAST
                        Edmonton 5-0  +54   +27  4-1 Winnipeg
                        Calgary  3-2 even   +20  3-2 Hamilton
                    Saskatchewan 1-4  -59   +30  3-2 Montreal
                British Columbia 0-5  -35   -23  1-4 Toronto

                  Montreal wins tiebreak from Hamilton by method b)

                                      MATCHUPS

                       WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                   Saskatchewan @ Calgary   Montreal @ Hamilton
Calgary defeats Saskatchewan by method i)   Hamilton defeats Montreal by method i)

                            WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                       Calgary @ Edmonton   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
    Edmonton defeats Calgary by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                                       GREY CUP
                                 Edmonton vs Winnipeg
                       Edmonton defeats Winnipeg by method iv)

If the playoffs were to start today, Esks win again, setting up a week 6 showdown with the 'Peg that could flip it around.

if montreal wins tiebreaker with hamilton, why is hamilton the home team?

'Cause it’s a typo. S***! Sorry. And it won’t let me edit.

Week 6, and a new champ!


                                          STANDINGS

                                         WEST   EAST
                            Edmonton 5-1  +42   +39  5-1 Winnipeg
                            Calgary  4-2  +12   +43  4-2 Montreal
                    British Columbia 1-5  -22   +8   3-3 Hamilton
                        Saskatchewan 1-5  -72   -36  1-5 Toronto

                British Columbia wins tiebreak from Saskatchewan by method b)

                                          MATCHUPS

                           WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                   British Columbia @ Calgary   Hamilton @ Montreal
Calgary defeats British Columbia by method i)   Hamilton defeats Montreal by method i)

                                WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                           Calgary @ Edmonton   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
        Edmonton defeats Calgary by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                                           GREY CUP
                                     Edmonton vs Winnipeg
                           Winnipeg defeats Edmonton by method i)

If the playoffs were to start today … Your Winnipeg Blue Bombers would be the projected Champions.

The matchups are getting interesting!

And a 1-5 team would make the Playoffs !! :roll:

Thanks PDog72!

Week 7, no changes ...


                                          STANDINGS

                                         WEST   EAST
                            Edmonton 5-2  +19   +52  6-1 Winnipeg
                            Calgary  5-2  +22   +66  5-2 Montreal
                    British Columbia 1-6  -35   +13  4-3 Hamilton
                        Saskatchewan 1-6  -82   -41  1-6 Toronto

                       Edmonton wins tiebreak from Calgary by method b)
                British Columbia wins tiebreak from Saskatchewan by method b)

                                          MATCHUPS

                           WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                   British Columbia @ Calgary   Hamilton @ Montreal
Calgary defeats British Columbia by method i)   Hamilton defeats Montreal by method i)

                                WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                           Calgary @ Edmonton   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
        Edmonton defeats Calgary by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                                           GREY CUP
                                     Edmonton vs Winnipeg
                           Winnipeg defeats Edmonton by method i)

If the playoffs were to start today, Winnipeg would be the champs.

I might skip next week, combine the 2 bye weeks. We'll see.

Weeks 8 and 9 results ...


                                             STANDINGS

                                            WEST   EAST
                               Calgary  6-2  +29   +55  7-1 Winnipeg
                               Edmonton 5-3  -16   +59  5-3 Montreal
                       British Columbia 2-6 even   +10  4-4 Hamilton
                           Saskatchewan 1-7  -88   -35  2-6 Toronto

                                             MATCHUPS

                              WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                     British Columbia @ Edmonton   Hamilton @ Montreal
British Columbia defeats Edmonton by method iii)   Hamilton defeats Montreal by method i)

                                   WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                      British Columbia @ Calgary   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
   Calgary defeats British Columbia by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                                             GREY CUP
                                       Calgary vs Winnipeg
                              Calgary defeats Winnipeg by method i)

If they playoffs were to start today ... Calgary would beat Winnipeg. :o

After Labour Day ...


                                          STANDINGS

                                         WEST   EAST
                            Edmonton 6-3  +12   +35  7-2 Winnipeg
                            Calgary  6-3   +1   +33  5-4 Hamilton
                    British Columbia 3-6  +13   +36  5-4 Montreal
                        Saskatchewan 2-7  -68   -35  2-6 Toronto

                                           MATCHUPS

                           WESTERN SEMI-FINAL   EASTERN SEMI-FINAL
                   British Columbia @ Calgary   Montreal @ Hamilton
Calgary defeats British Columbia by method i)   Hamilton defeats Montreal by method i)

                                WESTERN FINAL   EASTERN FINAL
                           Calgary @ Edmonton   Hamilton @ Winnipeg
        Edmonton defeats Calgary by method i)   Winnipeg defeats Hamilton by method i)

                                          GREY CUP
                                    Edmonton vs Winnipeg
                            Winnipeg defeats Edmonton by method i)

They may have lost bad this week but ... If the playoffs were to start today, the Bombers would be the Champs. :thup: