To start off this week of optimism and anticipation, I thought it might help (and also because I like looking at numbers and patterns) to recap the last 3 meetings between these 2 teams:
NOTE: I acknowledge that there is some concern about the accuracy of the data on the CFL site, but let’s assume the numbers are in the ballpark for now.
First the ugly side of the story with regard to scoring and sacks:
In all 3 meetings, Cats have never scored a TD in the first half while Argos have scored 8 TDs. Overall, Argos have scored 13 TDs (8 rushing, 5 passing) - 104 pts total, while Cats scored 6 TDs (2 rush, 4 pass) - only 57 pts. Our QBs have been sacked 8 times (BLM 1, TP 7 times), while Argo CK has only been sacked 4 times.
Consistencies & Differences:
Cats passing (285 yds/gm; 40 attempts/gm; 28 completions/gm; about 71% success) has been very consistent with a small improvement over the 3 games. Argo CK throws fewer passes (about 25 attempts/gm, 17 completions/gm with 68% success), but the Argos rely on a more balanced offence (70% pass, 30% rush) than us (80% pass, 20% rush), based on yds. Using attempts/gm as the metric, Argos rush 47% of the time while we rush only 31% of the time. They have produced about 115 yds/gm rushing while we are about 73 yds/gm.
No doubt there are many factors other than these stats that can explain our losses. In my humble but very simplistic opinion, on Saturday, we need to be more successful early in the game, and use a more balanced attack (i.e. more rushes).
And, of course, it goes without saying, we need to EXECUTE!
Nice recap ClosetCat. I’d suggest the disparity in rushing is a direct result of Hamilton always falling way behind in the first half. Hamilton has to come out the way they did this past weekend. Can’t settle for field goals imo. They need at least two TDs in the first half to have a chance here. The offence seems to be coming around but the secondary especially still has me very worried, you know the Argos will be going after Lawson and Woods side. From what Collaros said post game the Cats switched up and went to all zone coverage in the second half on Saturday which probably helped cover up some of the deficiencies in that side. Argos have burned us deep repeatedly over the 3 games and they’ll look to do the same this week.
There was one very early play on Labour Day that I hated and I think it’s based on a mindset that needs to be different when we play Toronto.
Trailing 3-0 on our very first offensive possession on Labour Day we were facing 3rd and 2 from the Argos 40 yard line. We had already gained a couple first downs and were playing with a little confidence. Being as we were moving into a decent breeze a FG attempt wasn’t a great option. We chose to punt.
Regardless of the outcome, I hated the decision. As soon as I saw the offence leaving the field I hollared from my seat to go for it. I think we have to assume Toronto will score 30+ and we need to be aggressive when it’s smart to do so. I wish they’d gone on 3rd down there and if we turn it over at the Toronto 40 that’s ok. Play like we need to score points and when the risk is low, be aggressive. I’m not saying be reckless, but for me that was a 100% green light to go on 3rd down.
As far as the result… we fumbled the snap, recovered in time to get a kick away but with the bobble coverage ran into a No Yards penalty and the Argos started at their 32 for a net gain of 8 yards. Even if we’d pinned them inside their ten I’d have still preferred that we had gone for it, got the first down, set up some points, and kept the Argos O off the field.
This week I hope we’re a little more play to keep the ball, and play to score when the situation makes sense.
That call drove me nuts too! But I think it’s league wide and not just Coach O. The Argos punted in a similar situation later in that game but Bede drove the ball low and deep which meant the Cat defenders weren’t on top of the return man, thus no 15 yard penalty.
In my mind you should never punt once you’re past the other team’s 50 yard line.
I will say Vedvik (sp?) was much improved on Saturday.
I thought it was less than 2 yards , and thought they should have gone for the first down as well. The Defence play calls in the last three minutes vs Winnipeg was like asking for them to score. No pressure up front and they are already weak at coverage. Stop making the same decisions if they aren’t working?
There’s a time and a place to play the field position game. Starting a young QB, at home, against the best team in the league that you know will stack some points, on the first possession, at the offensive 40 yard line… all these things go into an obvious go for it decision for me. Give the kid a vote of confidence, leave the high powered Argos O on the bench, get the home crowd involved, and if it fails it’s still ok field position.
I think the fact the Argos wont play a meaningful game until the East Final might play in our favour. The Argos will say all the right things about staying sharp and focused etc. But hubris is a funny thing.
You see games like these once in a while. When players don’t play full out and sharp injuries can happen.
We may see some back ups getting in some valuable playing time but you can bet they will be balling.
This one bad decision did not cost a win , but how many bad decisions have led to a 6-7 record? This coach has gone for a first down on 3rd and 6 or 7 from inside their own 25, but doesn’t on 3rd and 1.5 on the other teams 40 ?
