Article on US TV Rights Possibility.
From the article
The CFL incorporates major markets in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver, while in 2020 the XFL had teams in New York, Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, St. Louis, Seattle, Washington, D.C. and Tampa.
Well of course the article mentions the top 3 markets in Canada, but I would ask openly of the cities in the XFL, which ones have staying power for more pro football?
Say it is all 9 teams in the CFL and 7 of these in the XFL - that would make a nice neat number of 16 teams for the first season.
Here are my concerns for attendance on the US side, for media rights and promotion in and of themselves I do not think are going to cut it financially:
Los Angeles has a hard time filling the stands for its two NFL teams.
Texas - I could see things working out Dallas, but did the XFL team in Houston play indoors? The weather is like Florida from about April through November, so they better.
Tampa - Pro football outside in Florida through October? Without Tom Brady the draw, having lived there as well, I don't see it for Raymond James Stadium but for perhaps night games in spring or autumn. The Bucs before Brady had a hard time filling the stands through October, and then in November it depended how they were doing but they usually sucked so the locals did not fill the seats either.
Seattle - Can anybody from there comment on the local sports market for new teams? Are the locals interested in more pro football? They've shown interest in every other pro team in town plus soon NHL hockey.
Honestly I don't think Los Angeles makes the cut. Seattle was #2 in the league in attendance with 25k. Dallas drew decent with Bob Stoops at the helm, but think they'd do better in San Antonio overall. Houston attendance grew every week and had by far the best team in the league. Tampa drew gangbusters in the USFL and still drew around 10k in the dying days of the Arena league.
Hey thank you. I'm with you on Los Angeles.
Seattle surprises me and the results are there, so on with them plus Seattle playing the BC Lions makes for a great rivalry akin to in MLS.
Houston we have a problem come April I figure though given that heat and humidity. Move that team to San Antonio?
But I'm not so sure the local draw in San Antonio will be greater than Dallas or Houston.
How well did Tampa draw? Bear in mind it is the best weather of the year in February through early April, so come May in Tampa there is a problem there just like in Houston outdoors.
As a American the XFL is targeting cities with big numbers but aren't football hot beds.I would put a team in vacant Columbus Ohio Crew Football which seats over 20k than NYC any day.This XFL will fail trying to target big markets instead of places where football is loved.Oklahoma City is another place where a team would do good.
There no scenario in which the XFL merges into the CFL and has the season conflict with the NCAA or NFL. If the leagues merge it will be predicated on that and us becoming a Spring .
$100million likely assumes spring league, advertisers won't touch us otherwise, plus was that based on 10 games or 18? Likely first season media deal won't be worth too much, the expanded XCFL has to prove itself and establish what average viewership is gonna look like.
Year 2 or 3 would be a different story, if we're going strong then that's when the big $$ start getting made.
I agree totally that likely the XFL will keep a team on ice, Tampa I'd bet and form a nice 16 team league. MLS has no problem playing outside during the summer in Houston and Florida, besides I suspect if we were to go to a spring league the majority of games in the first half of the season would be played in the US then shift north for thr bulk of summer.
My idea: CAN teams play USA teams from Mem Day to Labour Day in the US. Starting with Labour Day they switch up and all the American teams play the Canadian teams in Canada. Hits the sweet spot in both countries... Americans want spring ball but won't attend in person once the NFL and college ball starts. Canadians don't attend games in good numbers until the fall. Win win. I would play 8 home games in each country and leave 1 for rivalry games or special interest for Canadian teams to play against American teams and vice versa.
Nice thought but TV is/will be king not attendance. The media deal will drive this, no one will give us anything vaguely resembling real money if the league has to compete with the NCAA and NFL for American eyeballs. It is a nonstarter.
There can be football in Canada in the fall but it will have to be a post season special, a totally separate thing. I think there are options but the regular season needs to be over by August and championship done by labor day if we are going to get any tv deal worth a darn.
No one will take us seriously as well, they'll just think we're insane, no investment, just the league folding. I understand the sentiment but this is one area we are going to have to bend and if we want fall football in Canada it is going to have to be something different.
Not necessarily a bad thing, we could use the opportunity to focus and build University based ball, we need that, we need younger people interested in CFL. Perhaps we take college ball up to another level and have it take center stage in the fall? Its something we need, like the NCAA owns Saturday in America in the fall, why not have ours fill the full gap?
There are options and I think you are on the right track with it having to be something out of the box, but it can't pit American teams in the CFL having to compete for TV eyeballs post labor day.
I am still waiting for the league to use the word "Merger"
And if this guy is right....so what? Double the money for double the teams
Tampa is just as hot in August, September and October as it is in May. I would hate to be sat outside in the sun in September in Tampa for an NFL game but a lot of fans put up with it
The CFL is playing this one close to the vest, the first time you hear the word it will be when theyboutline the entire plan and deal. This way people can way the full cost benefit without speculation killing the thing in the cradle.
Merger is clearly the direction as the XFL gave it away, they are pausing their 2022 planning pending CFL negotiations. There are not many reasons why you would do that, merger namely being the most obvious and likely one.
They do put up with it, so do the MLB fans all summer all over the southern US. NFL also attend games in blizzards and subzero temps.
One story my dad tells is how he got frostbite from attending a game in December in Cleveland where winds off the lake dropped temperatures well below zero, but the stadium remained full.
You put on a good product the fans will endure a lot.
Yet all we are getting is speculation because no-one knows the intent
Right, exactly. For now it is wild speculation not based on anything hard from the CFL, not the same thing as actually knowing their direction. Totally different psychologically and in the form of the speculation.
Right now it is "just talks," how can any reasonable person be against just talking about "potential collaboration?" Though they been talking since last year, but their current statements could mean anything and that is the point.
The second they drop the "merger" word it had better come with a clear vision and what changes are likely to come with it or then the speculation will kill it, even if it was trending in our favor.
I agree with your assessment of L.A. That team should be moved to San Antonio. Texas is a hotbed for football and grossly underserved.
Which is exactly why I am ignoring it
Why not?...Being against potential collaboration has nothing to do with being reasonable or unreasonable. Not every idea has to be discussed
How about they simply announce what the goals are? But fans an media can speculate until the cows come home....it won't change the outcome
Having worked in politics i understand the power of perception and public buy in. If you relate your goals too early without more meat you actually do far more harm than good.
We have a lot now very passionate people who are better managed with less information until answers to what will be their obvious questions can be determined. Obviously merger means rule changes, which ones, why, what donwe get in return?
It better to keep vague until you've got a more complete vision, otherwise coming out too early just looks half baked and shoot yourself in the foot.
The CFL's vagueness and the XFL on hold pending talks i think spells a very clear picture, merger. Both sides know foe that to work and for the CFL fans to have buy it must be managed very carefully.
Letting folks speculate in a total vacuum is always better than having them speculate with only some information.
As far TV rights and their value like the first generation TV deal will be close to the one McMahon had, 50% of the ad revenue sold less broadcast expenses. That will likely be the deal for 2022 and 2023.
2024 will likely be generation II which will be heavily dependent on the actual ratings and how those ratings held up in the second season. If they were respectable then things progress to the next level, potential larger share of ad revenue or just a flat out cash fee. Again this will likely be a short term deal not going beyond two years, so covering 2024 and 2025.
I suspect also at the end of the 2023 if those first two seasons were good then they'll announce expanding the league from 16 teams to 20 for the 2025 season. San Diego, Oakland and Quebec City being the top contenders for 3 of those 4 slots. This way then they get more markets and get one season of establish new baseline ratings.
Then at the end of 2025 season the bidding war begins if all up to this point gone well. If not, well I imagine the CFL will have some kind of out clause which they may exercise at that time which would let them go their separate way hopefully in better position than when they entered the deal.
I wildly optimistic this deal will work out well, very well and that the league will be 30 teams by 2040, with 10 to 12 of those in Canada, maybe 2 in Mexico and the rest all over the US. Opening into the Latino market ahead of the NFL will do a lot of good for our brand and increasing viewership, thus better TV deals.
Wait, you are a politician too now not only a pundit? That explains much. Thank you for the clarification.
Have you lived in Florida before Tom Brady arrived and not only visited your political cronies? The answer I am going to guess is no. The Dolphins and Jaguars also have a hard enough time filling the stands through October at the very least and both afterwards largely only when the team is any good or playing some team from the State of New York or the Cowboys or the Steelers and the like with a national following.