CFL Simulation: The Argos ride a wave

TORONTO β€” After enduring their share of ups and downs this season, the Toronto Argonauts are in a good place.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.cfl.ca/2022/09/27/cfl-simulation-the-argos-ride-a-wave/

Toronto has the highest odds to win the Grey Cup? Where can I bet against that...?

It seems insane but the Argos usually do a bs run to the grey once every five years or so. So it could happen especially with how good they are playing right now and the east being really weak this year.

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I think that's because they are a part of so many of the potential Grey Cup match-ups. If they're 50/50 against Winnipeg but almost 100% against Calgary and BC, then that would give them a championship in roughly 60% of the scenarios.

But I do suspect that the simulator is predicting Toronto beats Winnipeg more often than not. Which actually isn't hard to believe given how well the Argos have been playing lately and that Winnipeg's two losses have both come fairly recently. The data being fed into the simulator would certainly support a conclusion that the Argos are the hotter team. Of course, that can very easily change over the next month.

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Toronto gets to play Calgary and BC over the next two weeks, that should give us a good idea of how these Argos stack up to the West.

Sidenote: Winnipeg only plays Toronto once this year? Is that normal? In a 9 team league, I thought usually you play every team twice, and you play a few teams in your division three times.

This year has been odd in that respect. In the past there's always been an east/west home/away game; and then each division rounds out the remaining games in their own div. This year sux in that BC plays Hamilton and Montreal only once each ! And then plays each team in the west 3 times !
Might be a money thing because of travel, but still stupid! BC going to Winnipeg twice, instead of just traveling a little further to Montreal is a lame excuse to save money!

It’s because they are so heavily favored to win the east. So they are almost certain to go to the Grey Cup. In the west there are three teams that could go to the grey cup so that gets split three or even 4 ways. Once the western team is determined, the Toronto odds will go way down

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