CFL Simulation: Sizing up two important East games

TORONTO — As we work our way through the final four games of the regular-season, CFL Simulation is like many of us, focusing on the outcomes in Hamilton and Montreal this weekend.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.cfl.ca/2021/11/18/cfl-simulation-sizing-two-important-east-games/
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Don’t know much about this simulator thing but assume it is some kind of computer algorithm that calculates billions of factors and then predicts the most probable outcomes. Or something like that. More scientific than a horoscope but certainly not infallible. Perhaps useful to some degree if you like to bet.

I note that the simulator gives the Ticats a 66.2% chance of hosting a playoff game and the Als of course only a 33.8% chance. This means that it thinks the Ticats will most probably win this weekend, as do I. The Als should win as well but that won’t likely be good enough.

Now the interesting part. The simulator gives the Als a 24.7% chance of appearing in the Grey Cup but only gives Hamilton a 12.69% chance. Toronto is the overwhelming favorite to appear in the Grey Cup as the East representative at 62.61%.

What the simulator is saying is that Hamilton will host the ESF but lose to Montreal. Exactly what I was thinking. But don’t take my word for it. Two weeks ago I thought Hamilton was playing well and would beat Toronto and finish first. Glad I didn’t put any money on that.

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