CFL Simulation: Rising up in Riderville

TORONTO — The game itself was a treat to watch and if you’re a Saskatchewan Roughriders fan, you’ll like what you’re about to see below.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.cfl.ca/2021/09/30/cfl-simulation-rising-riderville/
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Hold on just one damn minute here ...

Last week: CFL Simulation: A tight race develops in the East

Ottawa was projected 6-8. This week they give it to the Elks and are projected 5-9??

I think an old man with an abacus could do a better sim projection than whatever computer they're using.

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So many factors in play. BC started slow and Mike Riley was dealing with a bad elbow. Now he is a MOP candidate. B-L Mitchell has been banged up. A healthy QB in Calgary changes things. Will Hamilton QB step up and get healthy. The Riders have 14 men on the 6 game. Which players on contending teams might get hurt? Collaros has a history of injuries...so far so good but will it last? Do not count out TO and Montreal to upset. A lot of if's, buts and maybes to be determined and the Grey Cup is up for grabs. Anything....anything can happen!!

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It is time to throw away this useless simulator. The game of football is played on a field, computers are used in a fucking office-GET REAL ! :rage: :angry:

P.S. This makes the CFL look bush league in my humble opinion. Listen to us loyal fans please.

Actually I think that computer sims can be very interesting. This particular one is out to lunch tho.

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Like they say garbage in garbage out. The computer just spits out what it is fed. If the same people created the parameters that do the weekly guessing on who will win the games we know how reliable the model is. So far they are batting well below 50%. All that said there are a couple of teams that deserve to be at the top based on their records. The rest I'm not so sure the computer model is useful in projecting the odds.

Computer simulations are sometimes hilarious. Remember that 1960's Vietnam War anecdote?

“There’s the old apocryphal story that in 1967, they went to the basement of the Pentagon, when the mainframe computers took up the whole basement, and they put on the old punch cards everything you could quantify. Numbers of ships, numbers of tanks, numbers of helicopters, artillery, machine gun, ammo—everything you could quantify,” says James Willbanks, the chair of military history at U.S. Army Command and General Staff College. “They put it in the hopper and said, ‘When will we win in Vietnam?’ They went away on Friday and the thing ground away all weekend. [They] came back on Monday and there was one card in the output tray. And it said, 'You won in 1965.’”

:stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes: :boom:

The power rankings will be very interesting this week if the Lions beat the Bombers.

Bombers > Riders
Riders > Lions
Lions > Bombers

Lol, Start the parade. :tada: :bouquet:

Hilarious comment!

Not to defend the simulator - but let's remember that this is a multivariate model as opposed to univariate analysis.

The week-to-week change in any team's results is a function of their particular performance in conjunction with the results of games played by all other teams. In other words, Ottawa's drop in the number of expected wins may have resulted due to the accumulated increase by other CFL teams this past week (e.g, Saskatchewan with a road victory over a tough opponent).

Let's also remember that Ottawa played TWO games in this past week. Although they bested the Elks by 10, they lost by 17 to the Ti-Cats.

I'm supposing that these factors combined to produce the observed impact.

Don't praise the machine ... :stuck_out_tongue: