CFL Simulation: Liking the Bombers' chances

TORONTO — In a complete rematch of last year’s playoff bracket, the CFL Simulation sees that trend continuing into the 110th Grey Cup.


This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.cfl.ca/2023/11/07/cfl-simulation-liking-the-bombers-chances

I have a masters degree in statistical engineering. I even took one PhD level course on simulations. I have not analyzed the situation to the same degree as this article, so I have to “believe” the author of this article. But off the top of my head, these numbers surprise me. They delight me as a Bomber fan, but they surprise me.

My gut tells me these numbers are wrong, but I have not put sufficient effort into proving they are wrong. I thought Toronto would be the team favoured to win the Grey Cup this year. How can the Over/Under say that Toronto is 10.5 to beat Montreal, and the Over/Under say that Winnipeg is only 4.5 to beat BC yet this article says WPG has a higher chance of getting into the Grey Cup.

This article intrigues me immensely. The next two weekends are “must watch TV”, that’s for sure. Best reality TV in the world.

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Could it be that the odds makers are telling us that the Lions are a much better team than the Als?

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You’re way ahead of me. I just have my gut and it tells me that something in the system is weighted far too heavily. I think they need to hit the side of the computer machine or something.

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I wonder what the odds are that the teams with the worst record have won the Cup 50% of the time the past 10 seasons. That three 15 win teams have all lost the GC the past 6 years. That a Bruin team that put up a record season in 2022-23, losing only 4 home games all year were eliminated in a 7 game series in the 1st round.

I find these simulations interesting but they vary often quite dramatically from week to week. Take 1 key guy off the roster & watch the bouncing ball. It’s like the stock market. If Elon Musk has a bad day the stock market has a bad day as happened not that long ago. :sunglasses:

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Whoa whoa… slow down there IllinoisGuy. Some of us primitives can’t keep up with your tech savvy computer jargon. This next level advice on how to discipline a computer by hitting the side of it had me sifting through my old copies of Mechanics Illustrated for more info. What a can of worms you’ve opened here. I have so many questions to ask.

So how exactly do I strike the side of my mainframe without disrupting the reel to reel tape readout? Which punch cards will I need to re-punch? And when the heck is somebody going to show me which telegraph office the TV Repair Shop moved to? :beaver:

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Well done, IllinoisGuy! You were quoted in this article. Such insight, man! :grin:

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Ha ha! Righteous!
Thanks for sharing!

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Good stuff! First time I have seen a post from this forum quoted in a regular media outlet.

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Yes, IllinoisGuy has validated all of us. :smile:

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Computers are taking over the world. They know their stuff. If they say the Bombers are goinmg to win, who are we to disagree? :smile:

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Knock Zach on his back….

Ha ha ha ha - What is this that stands before me? Dark figure in Blue with eyes of fire. Go Blue Bombers Go

Let that sink in. Cheers

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