CFL Simulation: Liking the Bombers' chances

TORONTO — In a complete rematch of last year’s playoff bracket, the CFL Simulation sees that trend continuing into the 110th Grey Cup.

This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at

I have a masters degree in statistical engineering. I even took one PhD level course on simulations. I have not analyzed the situation to the same degree as this article, so I have to “believe” the author of this article. But off the top of my head, these numbers surprise me. They delight me as a Bomber fan, but they surprise me.

My gut tells me these numbers are wrong, but I have not put sufficient effort into proving they are wrong. I thought Toronto would be the team favoured to win the Grey Cup this year. How can the Over/Under say that Toronto is 10.5 to beat Montreal, and the Over/Under say that Winnipeg is only 4.5 to beat BC yet this article says WPG has a higher chance of getting into the Grey Cup.

This article intrigues me immensely. The next two weekends are “must watch TV”, that’s for sure. Best reality TV in the world.


Could it be that the odds makers are telling us that the Lions are a much better team than the Als?

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You’re way ahead of me. I just have my gut and it tells me that something in the system is weighted far too heavily. I think they need to hit the side of the computer machine or something.


I wonder what the odds are that the teams with the worst record have won the Cup 50% of the time the past 10 seasons. That three 15 win teams have all lost the GC the past 6 years. That a Bruin team that put up a record season in 2022-23, losing only 4 home games all year were eliminated in a 7 game series in the 1st round.

I find these simulations interesting but they vary often quite dramatically from week to week. Take 1 key guy off the roster & watch the bouncing ball. It’s like the stock market. If Elon Musk has a bad day the stock market has a bad day as happened not that long ago. :sunglasses:


Whoa whoa… slow down there IllinoisGuy. Some of us primitives can’t keep up with your tech savvy computer jargon. This next level advice on how to discipline a computer by hitting the side of it had me sifting through my old copies of Mechanics Illustrated for more info. What a can of worms you’ve opened here. I have so many questions to ask.

So how exactly do I strike the side of my mainframe without disrupting the reel to reel tape readout? Which punch cards will I need to re-punch? And when the heck is somebody going to show me which telegraph office the TV Repair Shop moved to? :beaver:


Well done, IllinoisGuy! You were quoted in this article. Such insight, man! :grin:


Ha ha! Righteous!
Thanks for sharing!


Good stuff! First time I have seen a post from this forum quoted in a regular media outlet.


Yes, IllinoisGuy has validated all of us. :smile:


Computers are taking over the world. They know their stuff. If they say the Bombers are goinmg to win, who are we to disagree? :smile:


Knock Zach on his back….

Ha ha ha ha - What is this that stands before me? Dark figure in Blue with eyes of fire. Go Blue Bombers Go

Let that sink in. Cheers