CFL Simulation has Argos winning the east (barely)

Hamilton Tiger-Cats
#1

The cfl.ca website has this story on its home page today.

http://www.cfl.ca/article/cfl-simulation-2014
TORONTO -- A computer simulation model is used to calculate the probabilities of any CFL team finishing first in its division.

The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game)
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.

For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here is a look at how the teams stack up:

West Division TeamProjection
Calgary Stampeders - 89.75%
Saskatchewan Roughriders - 7.07%
Edmonton Eskimos - 2.79%
BC Lions - 0.34%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers - 0.05%

Calgary's loss to Montreal drops them from 94.79% but they still have a strangle-hold on the division. Saskatchewan's win, combined with an Eskimos loss and yielded a percentage increase and created some breathing room. Still tough sledding for the Lions and Bombers.

East Division Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts - 45.8%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 45.6%
Montreal Alouettes - 9.5%
Ottawa REDBLACKS - 0.1%

The percentage difference of 0.2 sums up where the East Division is right now. Both Toronto and Hamilton won last week and will likely witness significant movement as they play each other twice in the next four weeks. Hamilton also has a game in hand. Montreal is still in the picture but the algorithm states its a long shot.


I guess even though we have a game in hand and have two games remaining against Ottawa - the weakest team - they must weight the Argos being at home for all but one game the rest of the season as a big enough advantage to give them the smallest statistical advantage.
#2

Its so important we get that East Final game in our building. Its right there for the taking. Do the work now and in the upcoming weeks and we dont have to do it in the playoffs.

Last year I was quite confident we could go into Toronto and beat them in an East Final with our offence being what it was, this year im not so sure. We want that game outdoors in November in THF.

#3

I would rather not have a bye in the first week of the playoffs. It seems to hurt more than it helps.

#4

Plus, like last year, we'd get two home play-off games. :wink:

#5

The Arghos also only have one more game against western teams, while we have two. But it does look like the home games are playing into their weighting. I suspect that they forgot that home field doesn’t mean anything for the Arghos when playing the Ticats.

#6

Run the models again! They’re wrong just like the Global warming models.

#7

I don't know feels pretty warm out there today. (joking) :smiley:

I would suspect after a road win - we should move past the idle Argos on that simulation thing.

And since you mention climate - http://www.wired.com/2014/09/2014-pace- ... year-ever/

#8

If that is in fact the case, then that's great news for Hamilton, because two of those "home" games are vs Hamilton and we all know which team really has the home crown when Hamilton visits TO.

#9

Our win on the road in Winnipeg has sent us rocketing to the top for odds of finishing in first in the division in the East on this computer simulation.

http://www.cfl.ca/article/cfl-simulation-2014 
East Division - 1st Place Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 59.0%
Toronto Argonauts - 27.1%
Montreal Alouettes - 13.9%
Ottawa REDBLACKS - 0%

West Division 1st Place Team Projection
Calgary Stampeders - 94.84%
Saskatchewan Roughriders - 2.94%
Edmonton Eskimos - 2.20%
BC Lions - 0.02%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers - 0%
#10

I expect this comes from the same kind of computer work that generates the very questionable power rankings. For example I think Montreal's chances are undervalued because one of their key home games is Saskatchewan. Saskatchewan was great earlier. Right now, they are not that good.

#11

More than any simulation, their schedule with 4-in-a-row now at home, and all but 1 of their remaining games on the road, along with this story should give TOR the edge. It sounds here, like the return of the" Kack Attack" will likely debut against the Cats on the 10th:

[url=http://www.cfl.ca/article/argos-remain-patient-with-kackerts-return]http://www.cfl.ca/article/argos-remain- ... rts-return[/url]
#12

Correcting myself:

In my above post "all but" should have been "only."

(TOR has 6 games remaining with only 1 of them on the road)

#13

I think the Ticats have by far the easiest remainder of the season. Don't forget the Ticats have TWO ADDITONAL home games - they are playing two games in Toronto that's two more home games, there will be more Ticat fans in the stands than Argo fans.

#14

These simulations are cute, but unimportant. Same with the Power Rankings. I can't get exercised over them at all.

Just play the games and win most of them, we'll be fine. Play badly and lose, and we'll be out of the running.

#15

Bobo's unofficial Final Standings-2014 season(NO crossover needed)(or computer Sims needed :slight_smile: )

EAST DIVISION

#1..Hamilton....10...8...0...20
#2..Toronto.......8..10..0...16
#3..Montreal......8..10..0...16
#4..Ottawa........1..17..0....2

WEST DIVISION

#1..Calgary.......16...2..0...32
#2..Edmonton....13...5..0...26
#3..Saskatchewan.9..9..0...18
#4..B.C.............8..10.0...16
#5..Winnipeg......8..10.0...16

#16

The odds of this happening are extremely unlikely.

#17

Take a good look at the remaining schedule,and you'll see that the odds of this happening are extremely likely,and very plausible and there was no computer needed to figure it out :smiley:

Calgary..........(11-2)remaining games...@Sask(W)/@Wnp(W)/Sask(W)/Wnp(W)/@B.C(W)..........16W/2L/1rst
Edmonton.......(9-4 )remaining games...@Tor(L)/Wnp(W)/@Sask(W)/BC(W)/@Sask(W)..............13W/5L/2nd
Saskatchewan..(9-4) remaining games.....Calg(L)/@Mtl(L)/Edm(L)/@Cal(L)/Edm(L)....................9W/9L/3rd
B.C..............(7-6) remaining games....@Ham(L)/Ott(W)/@Wnp(L)/@Edm(L)/Calg(L)................8W/10L/4th
Winnipeg.......(6-7) remaining games....@Ott(W)/@Edm(L)/Calg(L)/BC(W)/@Calg(L)..................8W/10L/5th

Hamilton.......(5-7)remaining games.....BC(W)/@Tor(W)/Ott(W)/@Tor(L)/@Ott(W)/Mtl(W).........10W/8L/1rst
Toronto........(4-8)remaining games.....Edm(W)/Ham(L)/Mtl(W)/Ham(W)/@Mtl(L)/Ott(W)...........8W/10L/2nd
Montreal.......(5-8)remaining games.....Sask(W)/@Tor(L)/@Ott(W)/Tor(W)/@Ham(L).................8W/10L/3rd
Ottawa.......(1-11)remaining games.....Wnp(L)/@BC(L)/@Ham(L)/Mtl(L)/Ham(L)/@Tor(L)............1W/17L/4th

#18

Plausible.... although the monkey wrench might be that Calgary will have nothing to play for in their last 2 games, which could open the door for both WPG and BC to get to 9-9.

#19

Updated today.

East Division

Team Projection

Hamilton Tiger-Cats 56.75%
Toronto 33.89%
Montreal Alouettes 9.34%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.01%

#20

Redblacks 0.01%!!!!

So youre sayin theres a chance