The cfl.ca website has this story on its home page today.http://www.cfl.ca/article/cfl-simulation-2014
TORONTO -- A computer simulation model is used to calculate the probabilities of any CFL team finishing first in its division.
The model considers the following:
• Each team’s current win-loss record
• Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game)
• Margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season
• Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away)
The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular season schedule. The first place team in each division is the one with the most regular season wins. For each replication, the model keeps track of which team finished first.
For instance, if Winnipeg finished first in the Western Division in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its first place probability is 1,990 / 10,000 = 19.90%.
The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.
Here is a look at how the teams stack up:
West Division TeamProjection
Calgary Stampeders - 89.75%
Saskatchewan Roughriders - 7.07%
Edmonton Eskimos - 2.79%
BC Lions - 0.34%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers - 0.05%
Calgary's loss to Montreal drops them from 94.79% but they still have a strangle-hold on the division. Saskatchewan's win, combined with an Eskimos loss and yielded a percentage increase and created some breathing room. Still tough sledding for the Lions and Bombers.
East Division Team Projection
Toronto Argonauts - 45.8%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats - 45.6%
Montreal Alouettes - 9.5%
Ottawa REDBLACKS - 0.1%
The percentage difference of 0.2 sums up where the East Division is right now. Both Toronto and Hamilton won last week and will likely witness significant movement as they play each other twice in the next four weeks. Hamilton also has a game in hand. Montreal is still in the picture but the algorithm states its a long shot.
I guess even though we have a game in hand and have two games remaining against Ottawa - the weakest team - they must weight the Argos being at home for all but one game the rest of the season as a big enough advantage to give them the smallest statistical advantage.