TORONTO — The Winnipeg Blue Bombers don’t play for another week, but the three-time running West Division leaders are front of mind for the CFL Simulation.
This is a companion discussion topic for the original entry at https://www.cfl.ca/2023/10/31/cfl-simulation-big-on-the-blue-bombers
Bet Vegas isn’t giving us a 70% chance.
I think you are 100% correct.
It does seem way out of whack. We don’t know all of the things the computer considers however. I’m guessing they may be overemphasizing previous years. Also maybe the poor performances by the Stamps and Lions lately and quite probably the fact that the Bombers haven’t lost an important game since 2019 except last year’s Grey Cup and that was hardly a blowout loss and could easily have gone either way.
I’m no handicapper but I see Winnipeg and Toronto as obviously the two favourites to get to the Cup and with Winnipeg having a slightly harder path as in theory they will have to beat a better team (BC) than Toronto will to get there.
I also see Toronto being the favourite in the GC, say by 3 points. That is today. The games still have to be played. Obviously the odds could be affected depending on how each team plays on their way to the big game. Injuries could also drastically change the odds, especially if Collaros or Kelly goes down.
All things being relatively equal to what they are today, I can’t see Winnipeg being the favourite should the two top teams meet. I guess we will see if that actually happens. I would also normally trust the odds more than anything else, but Vegas historically isn’t great at setting CFL odds.
Ummmm… They lost four important games this year, including Labour Day. Sure they bounced back strong right away but all four of those losses came when they were still fighting for a position in the standings and had use for those points.
My guess is the simulator is giving too much weight to their win over the Argos in week 17. That was their only match-up this season and on the surface, looks like it ought to be an important indicator of how the two teams stack up to each other. However, I don’t think the simulator knows that Toronto rested key starters and still gave the Bombers a run for their money.
Is this the same simulator that had Calgary planning the GC parade route after two Stampeders wins? Time to pull the plug.