CFL Previews Week 4 - ATS Style

CFL Week 4 Previews
By CFL Handicapper Ron Raymond

Hamilton (54) vs. Calgary (-9)

Tiger Cats at Stampeders History: When Hamilton travels to Calgary, they are 8-6-0 (ATS) 3-11 (SU) and the over/under are 6-8-0.

In my Week 3 report, I indicated the Hamilton Tiger Cats were in a classic letdown spot vs. Saskatchewan and didn’t have a good history of being a good Home Favorite team. Which makes me wonder if the Tiger Cats will rebound this Thursday vs. Calgary like they did in Week 2 vs. the Argos in Toronto? The Tiger Cats are a +9.0 point Road Underdog vs. the Stampeders at McMahon Stadium this week, but that number has been bet down to 8.5, as the early money is coming in on the Tabbies. Hamilton is 6-4-0 ATS vs. the Stampeders as a Road Dog since ’96 and they’ve seen their last 2 games go OVER the total. Calgary on the other hand is coming off a nice Road Underdog win over Montreal and has seen the OVER go to 17-7-0; when they are a Favorite in July. Plus, the Stamps are in a favorable position this week; they are 10-2 SU as a Home Favorite during Week 1 to 4 of a CFL season. Furthermore, when ANY CFL Football team is a -7 to -9.5 Favorite, after a non-division game; they are 19-1 SU since 1996. Plus, if you’re a totals player, here’s a nice trend bucking to the UNDER this week; Hamilton has seen the UNDER go to 16-3-0 when they are on the road vs. a non-division foe and the total is between 51.5 to 54.0 Check your proline tickets, you might get a 55! The Stamps showed allot of pride last week after a rough first half, but made the right adjustments at halftime and flew out of La Belle Province with a nice 23-19 win over the Alouettes. Hamilton was involved in a great see-saw battle with the Green Riders, but lost in a controversial way when Riders receiver Dressler got the ball punched out by a Hamilton defender at the 1-yard line and the ball rolled out of the end zone. Had this been the NFL, it would have been ruled a touchback, but since this is the CFL, the rule states the ball belongs to the last team that touched the ball and this is why the ball was placed on the 1 yard line for Saskatchewan. Nevertheless, I just hope Charlie Taaffe is not one of those coaches that is carrying the bad luck cloud, as I’ve seen this movie before!

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When CALGARY team played as a Home team - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; The Stamps are 15-2 SU in this role since ’96.

Winnipeg (51) vs. BC Lions (-7)
Blue Bombers at Lions History: When Winnipeg travels to BC Place, they are 8-5-0 (ATS), 6-7 (SU) and the over/under is 5-7-1.

Sports Handicapping 101 says you should always bet against the team that won in game 1 of a back to back home and away series, but the 0-3 Winnipeg Blue Bombers aren’t gleaming of confidence or showing signs of improving on a weekly basis. Furthermore, I’m starting to think the broken arm Kevin Glenn suffered in the Eastern Final vs. Toronto last year is playing a psychological role in his ability to perform at a higher level. Or at the very least, pick up where he left off last season, as Glenn seems to be misreading his receivers and has not shown any consistency in his actions. Additionally, the Bombers strength was suppose to be the defense, but they are allowing 34.3 points against a game and are mired in a 3-game losing streak SU and ATS. Plus, statistically speaking, the Bombers are faced with a tough task this Friday night; they are 2-8 SU as a home or away team when the total is between 51.5 to 54. The BC Lions finally got their first win of the season last week in the Peg and are 7-3 SU vs. the Blue Bombers as a Favorite. If you’re looking for a low scoring affair, you might be on the right channel this week, the UNDER IS 9-2-2 for the Bombers on the road during week 1 to 4 after a non-division game. But here’s the bad news for Winnipeg fans, the Lions are 10-2 SU as a Home Favorite vs. Non-Division opponents when they are playing on Friday nights. Lions head coach Wally Buono should be feeling a sense of relief; Jarious Jackson looked composed in the pocket and engineered some nice drives. The Line makers have labeled the 1-2 Lions as a -7.0 point Home Favorite with the over/under set at 54.0. My ATS Calculator has the Lions winning by 14.3 points and the over/under to land on 54.9.

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When BRITISH COLUMBIA team played as Home team as a Favorite -Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 1 game over; The Lions are 12-0 SU in this position since ’00.

Montreal (52) vs. Saskatchewan (-6)
Alouettes at Roughriders History: When Montreal travels to Saskatchewan, they are 6-5-1 (ATS), 9-3 SU and the over/under is 8-3-0.

One of the reasons I liked Calgary to win straight up last week vs. Montreal, was the fact the Alouettes let a huge lead slip in Week 2 vs. Winnipeg, but hung on for the Win. However, if you recalled in Week 2 vs. the Blue Bombers, the Alouettes jumped to a 31-7 lead and allowed Winnipeg to crawl back to within 7 points. To be honest, this must have been a huge concern for Head Coach Marc Trestman, as this indicated his football team didn’t have that killer instinct to put teams away when they are down and out! Montreal is in a nice spot here this Saturday; they are 16-4 SU on the road during July games since 1996. In fact, if there’s a team Montreal wants to face this weekend, it’s the Saskatchewan Roughriders; Montreal is 20-4-1 SU at home or on the road vs. the Green Riders since 1996. But here’s the bad news; the Alouettes are 3-12-3 SU as a Road Underdog when the spread is between 4.0 to 7.0! Furthermore, Saskatchewan seems to enjoy home cooking the first four weeks of the season, they are 16-4 SU in this spot since 1996. If you’re a situational handicapper, the Alouettes are coming off a 2 game home stand and they are 13-7-0 ATS, 14-6 SU and the OVER/UNDER is 8-12-0 favoring the UNDER. According to many, the Saskatchewan Roughriders are not supposed to be 3-0 on the season and averaging 31 points per game on offense. If you’re wondering how will Saskatchewan will do at home after a road underdog win in Hamilton last week; the Riders are 4-6 SU & ATS, with the OVER prevailing 7 out of 10 times.

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When SASKATCHEWAN team played as a Home team - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; the OVER is 10-2-0 for the Roughriders in this spot since ’96.

Edmonton (50.5) vs. Toronto (-3.5)
Eskimos at Argonauts History: When Edmonton travels to Toronto, they are 9-3-1 (ATS), 6-7 (SU) and the over/under is 6-7-0.

Going from defensive coordinator to Head Coach is a big jump for a young coach, but it’s a huge LEAP when you’ve been an assistant coach or coordinator your whole life to the head cheese. In fact, I call it the “Bryan Trottier Rule?! If you recall, Bryan Trottier was an assistant coach for 8 years in Pittsburgh and Colorado and then promoted to Head Coach of the New York Rangers during the 2002-03 season with a 45% winning percentage in 54 games. Then, there’s the NFL angle or should I say the NFL PR move on releasing popular kicker and the heart and soul of the team Noel Prefontaine for ex-NFL kicker Mike Vanderjagt. Now let’s conclude the dysfunctional triffecta with the QB carousel by bringing in Kerry Joseph and stopping the growth of potential CFL star QB Michael Bishop. I have one question, who on earth is making these decisions? A good management team should not fix things that aren’t broken, unless they don’t want it to be broken. Food for thought! Let’s recall, the Argos finished 1st in the Eastern Division and hosted the Eastern Finals in 2007. As for this Sunday’s game, here’s another situation of a home and way back to back series with the Argos hosting the Eskimos at the Rogers Center. The bookmakers have pinned the Argonauts as a -3.5 point Home Favorite and the total is set at 50.5. The Eskimos nearly let the Argos back in the game last week, but pulled away in the fourth quarter with a 47-28 win. The last time the Argos allowed 40 or more points against in a game was in Week 12 of the 2007 season vs. BC, as the Lions beat them 40-7. However, Toronto rebounded nicely the following week vs. Winnipeg 31-23 as a -4.0 point home chalk. Edmonton is a “Jekyll and Hyde? type team, they tend to play well at home, but you never know which Eskimos team will show up on the road; as they are 6-13 SU on the road in July games since ’97. The last 2 games have gone OVER the total for the Argonauts and since ’96; the UNDER is 16-9-0 in the following games for the boatmen in this situation. Edmonton is averaging 31.3 point per game, but they are allowing 31 points against, which much be a concern for Head Coach Danny Maciocia. Plus, not a good spot for the Edmonton Eskimos this Sunday, they are 6-13 SU as a Road Underdog in July games since 1997. Tread lightly friends!

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When TORONTO team played as a Home team - Coming off a Road loss as a Underdog; The UNDER is 7-3-0 for the Argonauts in this position since ’96
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Here's my CFL picks for Week 4. (Went 3-1 Last Week)

Calgary over Hamilton
BC Lions over Winnipeg
Montreal over Saskatchewan
Edmonton over Toronto

Enjoy Week 4.

Ron