CFL Previews Week 3 - ATS Style

CFL Week 3 Previews
By CFL Handicapper Ron Raymond

The CFL Week 3 previews are dedicated to a man who gave CFL fans a great ride for 40 years with all his dedication and passion for the game of football. Bob Ackles will be sorely missed by his family friends and peers. Bob Ackles was the President and CEO of the BC Lions and the author of the book “The Waterboy?. Bob Ackles past away this past weekend at the age of 69 years old and is one of the most respected builders of the CFL game.

Now, speaking of the BC Lions, Wally Buono and the Lions are off to a rough 0-2 start, losing both games by 10 points and they are facing another desperate 0-2 team in the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. However, if you recalled in my CFL Football previews, I wrote how the Lions like to start late out of the gate, as they are 23-26 SU in Week 1 to 4 since 1996.

History tells us it’s not going to get any easier for the Lions this week, as they are 0-3 ATS and SU when they face an opponent who started a season at 0-2 SU and the OVER is 3-0-0.

Calgary (51) vs. Montreal (-3)
Stampeders at Alouettes History: Calgary is 5-7-0 (ATS), 4-8 (SU) and the OVER is 10-2-0 since 1996 when they travel to Montréal.

The Montreal Alouettes bolted to an early lead last week vs. Winnipeg, as they were up 31-7 at halftime and looked like they had this game in cruise control. However, a different Winnipeg Blue Bombers team showed up in the second half, as they were able to cut into the lead and before you can say “bob’s your uncle?, it was 31-24! Then the turning point of the game took place late in the fourth quarter, Anthony Calvillo scampered for 16 yards on a second and 15 and drove the team for a score which put the nail in the coffin for the Bombers on that night. Calgary on the other hand, fell to their provincial rivals, they lost 34-31 in an exciting 4th Quarter, as the Stamps trailed most of the game and just when you thought they protected the lead, Ricky Ray hit Jason Tucker on a 36-yards pass in the dying minutes to secure the win. Calgary is not a good betting position this Thursday night at Molson Percival Stadium, they are 5-10-1 ATS as a Road Underdog in July. Meanwhile, the Alouettes are 7-3-0 ATS as a favorite in July since ‘96, but get this; they are only 5-5 SU! Also, from a betting perspective, the Montreal Alouettes are 17-3 SU at home after playing the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Plus, this is a great QB matchup for Week 3; Henry Burris vs. Anthony Calvillo and keep in mind, Dave Dickenson is the back up in Calgary, while Montreal counters with Banks and McPherson.

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When MONTREAL team played as Home team as a Favorite -Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a game scored 38 points or more; The OVER is 9-2-1 for the Montreal Alouettes in this role since ’96.

Toronto (45) vs. Edmonton (-2.5)
Argonauts at Eskimos History: Toronto is 9-3-0 (ATS & SU), while the O/U is 4-8-0 since ’97 for the Argos in games played in Edmonton since ’96.

Well, it didn’t take long for the media to crash Argos Head Coach Rich Stubler’s honeymoon, as it seems there’s already a QB controversy in Argo land! Toronto suffered one of its worst home defeats in recent memory, as they lost to the Hamilton Tiger Cats 32-13 as a -10.5 point home favorite. In fact, prior to the Tiger Cats game, the Argos were 20-0 SU as a -10.0 or more home favorite since 1996. The last time they lost in this fashion was in Week 7 of the 2006 season vs. the BC Lions, the Lions tamed the Argos 28-8, but they were a +2.5 home underdog in that case. Nevertheless, last week’s beating was enough for one of the owners (David Cynamon) of the Argos to sound off, he blasted the team in the media and went on “Off the Record? with Michael Landsberg and took no prisoners in his criticism. Plus, the Argonauts bench boss is pushing the panic button a bit prematurely this week vs. the Eskimos, he revoked the play calling duties from the offensive coordinator Steve Buratto and gave Kerry Joseph the keys to the offense, as he will be calling his own plays vs. Edmonton this week. The Argos are in a bad betting situation this Thursday, because when they are a Road team as an Underdog, during Week 1 to 4 of a season and they are coming off a game that went over the total, they are 0-5 SU in this role since ’96. Edmonton on the other hand, seemed to have found the offensive playbook last week; Ricky Ray looked like the old gunslinger from pass season and finished the night hitting 65.9% of his passes for 448 yards.

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as a Road team -With 6 day off -Vs Non Conference Opponent - Allowed score 31 points or more against - Coming off a Loss over Hamilton opponent; The UNDER is 10-2-0 for the Road Team in this role since ’96.

BC Lions (48.5) vs. Winnipeg (-2.5)
Lions at Blue Bombers History: BC is 8-6-1 (ATS), 8-7 (SU) and the UNDER is 11-3-1 for the Lions when they travel to Winnipeg to face the Blue Bombers.

The Battle of the 0-2 teams face off on TSN’s Wendy’s Friday Night football in Week 3! The bookmakers have opened with the Blue Bombers as a -2.5 point home favorite and they are 15-3 ATS and SU as a -3.0 point or less home favorite since 1996. While the Lions are 9-14-0 ATS, 7-15-1 SU as a +3.0 point or less road underdog and the UNDER is 13-8-1 for them in this spot. Furthermore, the Lions seem to struggle on defense via the ground, they are ranked 7th vs. the run, but rank 1st vs. the pass. Winnipeg will no doubt want to get Charles Roberts involved this weekend, as the Bombers offense seems to get rolling when he’s more involved. In fact, Doug Berry might want to consider running the ball a bit more, the Bombers are ranked last in yards rushing with 104 yards on the ground this season. However, it’s pretty tough to run the ball when you’re playing catch up like they were last weekend vs. Montreal and the Argos defense held the fort in Week 1. Expect much of the same type of game Toronto and Winnipeg played in Week 1 at Canad Inn Stadium and look for the Bombers to give the lions a heavy dose of Charles Roberts.

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When WINNIPEG team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 1 game over; The Blue Bombers are 17-1 SU in this role since ’96.

Saskatchewan (46) vs. Hamilton (-2)
Roughriders at Tiger Cats History: Saskatchewan is 8-4-0 ATS, 5-7 SU and the UNDER is 8-3-1 at Ivor Wynne Stadium since ’96.

The line opened up as a Pick’em on Monday, but once the 2-0 Roughriders announced former North Carolina Tar Heels QB Darian Durant was going to get the nod in place of injured starter Marcus Crandell, the public has bet this line up to -2.0 in the Ticats favor. Not a good spot for the Ticats, as they are 6-9-0 ATS as a -3.0 point or less home favorite and 7-8 SU. Plus, the Tiger Cats are coming off a huge win over the Toronto Argonauts last weekend as a +10.5 point road underdog and you’re always concern about a let down spot here for the Tabbies. Saskatchewan is riding the hot hand, they spanked Edmonton 34-13 at home in Week 1, went into the Lions den and beat up Wally’s boys by 10 points and now face one of the top one-two combos in Casey Printers and Jesse Lumsden on Saturday night. In fact, history tells us this is not a good spot for the Green Riders in Steel Town this Saturday afternoon (4pm start); the Roughriders are 0-6 SU when they are labeled a road underdog vs. Hamilton since 1996! The line makers seem to have the total a bit low in my opinion for this showdown, as I would have made the total around 48.5 to 49.0, but keep in mind the UNDER is 8-3-1 for the Roughriders when they play in Hamilton. To be honest, this game might be decided by the kickers, both Luca Congi and Nick Setta are two of the top kickers in the game today in the CFL.

ATSDatabase Stat of the Game: When ANY CFL Team played as a Home team -After a division game - Before a non conference game - Coming off a game scored 31 points or more - Coming off a Road win as a Underdog; The UNDER is 9-3-0 for the Home Team (Tiger cats) in this role since ’96.

That could have been in Spanish for all I know. I could use a legend or something to understand any of those acronymns.

That was awesome I hope he posts that every week. I need a win

wow i needed my calculator my law book and my periodic table to analize this 1 but o.k sounds legit 2 me! um from what I translate B.C will win Riders will lose??? k I love you hope your right! LIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks guys. The pro line players will enjoy this article.

Here you go Soupy.

ATS = Against the Spread
SU = Straight up
O/U = Over UNDER

If i missed one, let me know.

See you guys for Week 4.

Edmonton by 12 points over Toronto.

Ron

In my opinion Hamilton is a lock to beat Saskatchewan.
Toronto will beat Edmonton.
Calgary over Montreal.
BC over Hamilton.

Here's my picks this week.

Calgary over Montreal
Edmonton over Toronto
Winnipeg over BC Lions
Saskatchewan over Hamilton

Good luck.

Ron Raymond

That's exactly what I picked yesterday for my ProLine (MiseOjeu)! If I'm wrong, at least I'm not alone!

Sounds like this person went to the school of former ESPN prognosticator, the Late Pete Axthelm. Axthelm was great for using the different variables for stats purposes!!

I like the Bombers too.

ONLY becasue the Cats will be jet lagged after beating the Riders on Saturday!!!....lol

Interesting article. Amazing how logic and statistics can be used to validate one view or the opposite. Although they might help in predicting the future, past data isn't a perfect crystal ball. There are some games in which random luck affect outcomes. In the long term, 60+% ATS accuracy is excellent.

berezin- BC is not playing Hamilton - they are playing Winnipeg!

I have a saying in life; "use past mistakes for current profits."

I bet on the Lions tonight to straight up win, money line at +120. I like those odds.

It couldn't be Spanish...I understand a few words of Spanish.

I would just like to point out that this type of analysis is the reason the VGCC has a rule about making your picks "clear at a glance." I have a recurring nightmare where everyone makes detailed posts like this, and it takes me twelve hours to enter all the picks.