CFL.ca writers pick Montreal to win (5-4 consensus)

The CFL.ca writers predict a Montreal win over the Cats by a 5-4 margin. :o

[url=http://www.cfl.ca/page/cflca-writers-make-their-semi-final-predictions]http://www.cfl.ca/page/cflca-writers-ma ... redictions[/url]

Yes but are the writers playing on Sunday? :twisted:

Doesn't matter what the writers think. The players will decide it. I anticipate a hard fought game and a close result. I sure hope the Ticats win it.

Pretty much 50/50 based on what we've seen this year, you are surprised by this ?

Good when media or opposing players offer up bulletin board material. HAM gets both. Nice. Thanks.

I like the cats and lions this week so I don't agree with any of them.

Let’s Look At The Tale Of The Tape For This Heavy Weight Battle!

Hamilton vs. Montreal
3 Meetings - 1 each at home & 1 neutral site … Even
Record = 2-1 … Advantage Hamilton

Averages For The 3 Games

Average Points Scored = 20 vs. 28.67 … Advantage Montreal
1st Downs = 21.67 vs. 26.67 … Advantage Montreal
Passing 1st Downs = 8.34 vs. 12 … Advantage Montreal
Rushing 1st Downs = 7.34 vs. 7.34 … Even
1st Downs On Penalties = 6 vs. 7.34 … Advantage Montreal
Rushing Yards = 95.67 vs. 87.34 … Advantage Hamilton
Yards / RA = 5.27 vs. 4.37 … Advantage Hamilton
Yards Passing = 160.34 vs. 281 … Advantage Montreal
Yards / PA = 5.29 vs. 7.59 … Advantage Montreal
Completion % = 59.22 vs. 59.47 … Even
Interceptions Thrown = 1 vs. .67 … Advantage Montreal
Fumbles Given = 1 vs. 1.67 … Advantage Hamilton
Penalty Yards = 62.67 vs. 83 … Advantage Hamilton
Punts = 7 vs. 6.67 … Advantage Montreal
Punting Yards = 41.67 vs. 36.23 … Advantage Hamilton

8 Montreal Advantages
6 Hamilton Advantages
3 Evens

When I plug the numbers into the hotly contested & debated & often infruriating “What Makes Teams Win" Formula … ... It’s says Montreal by 2.44 points.

That's all on paper & and the numbers are from the past ... The game is played on the field and the past is but a distant memory!

I still like the TiCats' chances and say they win by 4!

actually, more like 55/45 in favor of the Als.
To be honest, I thought the consensus among journalists would be the reverse considering final regular season standings.

either way, the game will likely be a close one, and possibly more of a defensive contest than most would imagine.

Cool thanks for that stat breakdown FenderGuy!

I agree. They are basing on what has transpired in the past but as we all know - playoffs are a NEW season. It will be a hard-fought game but I think the Ticats can win!

I can see why the writers went 5-4 Montreal, but IMO the Cats win a close game this weekend (despite my fondest hopes of a Montreal upset). We have just turned the ball over too frequently this season to make me think we'll suddenly turn over a new leaf when it counts...

Great work on compiling the stats FenderGuy! My concern with using the stats to make predictions about the upcoming game is that most of those stats are skewed in favour of the Als due to the 36-5 game where the Cats didn't even show up. It is a bit of an outlier. (thank you stats class) In the other games, the Cats have had to come from behind to win and weather the storm as the Als jumped out Big leads in both games aided by Cats' miscues. The come-back wins is the most important factor or stat IMO. That and the "showing up" stat.

Vs. the Als, games the Cats showed up for 2 of 3. Cats wins 2 of 3.

So, if the Cats show up, they should win. Especially if they don't hand over a large lead to the Als early. I also like that both Cats fullbacks will be available for this weekend's game. Advantage Cats.

Removed the "outlier" for comparison purposes

Averages For The 2 "Show Up" Games

Hamilton v Montreal
Record 2 - 0

Average Points Scored = 27.5 vs. 25 … Advantage Hamilton
1st Downs = 23.5 vs. 24.5 … Advantage Montreal
Passing 1st Downs = 8.5 vs. 12 … Advantage Montreal
Rushing 1st Downs = 8 vs. 7.5 … Advantage Hamilton
1st Downs On Penalties = 7 vs. 5 … Advantage Hamilton
Rushing Yards = 113 vs. 78 … Advantage Hamilton
Yards / RA = 5.35 vs. 4.15 … Advantage Hamilton
Yards Passing = 158.5 vs. 303.5 … Advantage Montreal
Yards / PA = 6.14 vs. 8.07 … Advantage Montreal
Completion % = 61.9 vs. 65.6 … Advantage Montreal
Interceptions Thrown = 1 vs. 1 … Even
Fumbles Given = .5 vs. 2 … Advantage Hamilton
Penalty Yards = 37.5 vs. 85.5 … Advantage Hamilton
Punts = 5.5 vs. 6 … Advantage Hamilton
Punting Yards = 40.5 vs. 33.9 … Advantage Hamilton

9 Advantages Hamilton
5 Advantages Montreal
1 Even

Yes, it changes the #'s when you remove the "outlier" of the game that the TiCats didn't "show up" ... but still very, very, very close.

The numbers that stand out are the turnovers and penalties in the 2 close wins for Hamilton over Montreal. One might say that was it as much the Als beating themselves as it was the TiCats beating the Als!

Keys to me ... Hamilton must close the gap in the passing game differential. Gotta get Montreal's Yards/Pass Attempt down & their own Yards/Pass Attempt up. The difference between them stands at almost 2 yards. If Hamilton can add an additional 1 Yard/Pass Attempt to their output & reduce Montreal's by 1 yard ... They'll be in much better stead!

Limit penalties & win the turnover battle are givens. Neither team, obviously can come away with a win if they beat themselves.

The betting line for the game is the Cats-point spread -3.5....Over/Under...52.5 total points.....Looks like the bookies are predicting a Hamilton victory by at least 4 pts.......prediction Cats-27...Al's-23.....Cats beat the spread but the game goes under the 52.5 number. GO CATS GO!!!!!!! :rockin: :rockin:

With all the important pieces we are getting back in our lineup this week, i’m inclined to believe we should beat that spread, this is the healthiest we’ve been all year, should come down to good game planning and execution, all things being equal Hamilton should win this one, (not that i’m biased or anything :wink: ) but it’s hard to give the edge to a team with a CFL Rookie at QB.

I se this as Montreal's defense vs, Hamilton's gameplan and execution which will be very close, and it'll be the team that makes more mistakes will be the team that loses.

Penalties and turnovers will be the key, as is usually the case.

I concur. :thup: :thup: :thup:

Gives Hamilton a bit of an edge since they are one of the least penalized teams in the league while Montreal is at the other end of the spectrum as one of the most penalized! :smiley:

Any chance you might be persuaded to run your #s again with the playoff game included? And if you are so inclined, with and without the "outlier" game? Would be interesting to see.

and in other breaking news, they also predict by 5-4 margin that the sun will rise in the west tomorrow and that pigs can fly. Are they right? Wait until tomorrow and find out.

:twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :twisted: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: