CFL.ca Simulation: Edmonton .09% Chance of Getting to GC

Simulation lists the other team in last year's Grey Cup (Ottawa) as having a 1.5% chance of getting there this year.

Probabilities of Appearing in the 104th Grey Cup

Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 91.79%
Calgary Stampeders 72.58%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 23.73%
Montreal Alouettes 5.95%
BC Lions 3.60%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 1.50%
Toronto Argonauts 0.76%
Edmonton Eskimos 0.09%
Saskatchewan Roughriders Less than 1 in 10,000

[url=http://www.cfl.ca/2016/08/30/cfl-simulation-who-will-end-the-year-on-top/]http://www.cfl.ca/2016/08/30/cfl-simula ... ar-on-top/[/url]

Montreal has a better chance than BC? I know which way I'd bet.

They are basing this on divisions. The East is just a bit more easy to get out of.

There’s something really funky going on here.

The Als have a better chance than either the Redblacks or the Argos? Looks to me like all three teams have pretty similar schedules, and the Als are trailing the other two in the standings. I’m thinking the Als have the best chance of not even making the playoffs.

And the Bombers have a better chance than the Lions? Again, the schedules look pretty even to me, and the Bombers are trailing.

Something tells me there’s something wrong with the formula they’re using for “The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game.”

LOL

Hamilton ahead of Calgary.
Montreal ahead of BC.

Only thing they got right was Saskatchewan Eskimos.

Hamilton having an easier route to the Grey Cup game? Probably, as they don't have to play BC in the playoffs. Oh, wait. This simulation had Winnipeg ahead of them. But basically, they're saying that Hamilton has a better chance of winning the east playoffs than Calgary does of winning the west playoffs.

This is such a pointless exercise.

They did the same thing around this time last year and projected Hamilton with something like a 99.7% chance of getting to the Grey Cup.

Complete waste of time.

I guess. But isn't Calgary like 6-1 against the West right now? Not even BC put up much of a fight.

Out of the 1st 9 games , the first four games are almost pre season like. Team's are still learning the playbook and different schemes. The rookie imports don't have a clue . The last 9 games is your measuring stick. Calgary right now looks good. Maybe peaking too early ? Still will be the favourites. Hamilton will get things together and will have a big second half.

Yes. Odd.

...the only thing I find questionable on this list is the disparity between Edmonton and Winnipeg...I suppose Edmonton has to play the (currently) best team in the west two times in a row, and Winnipeg gets the FREE SPACE on the bingo card two weeks in a row but a) no games are givens, that's why they play them and b) after that their schedules are not much different...I just find it surprising that Winnipeg is leaps and bounds ahead of Edmonton mathematically...

Using my computer:

Calgary 36%
Hamilton 34%
B.C. 31%
Ottawa 28%
Toronto 22%
Edmonton 20%
Winnipeg 16%
Montreal 10%
Sask. 3%

You have to take into account the Western crossover, increasing the chances that 4 Western teams and 2 Eastern (formerly the Big Four) teams make the playoffs. B.C. has beaten Calgary and Hamilton this year and should be ranked above the other Western contenders...and anything can happen in a CFL playoff game! :thup:

^^That sounds right.^^

Let's pump the brakes on "Western crossover" talk until after Thanksgiving at least.

Yes, BC has "beaten Calgary" - - but you failed to mention they've also lost TWICE to the Stamps. In addition to being completely dominated at home by Toronto.

Those probabilities for the Eastern conference seem pretty bizarre given the current standings.

Yes but as I pointed out.

It is based on within the division.

There is 4 pretty good teams in the West.
Ham will get better, but the rest of the East is in question.

As good as the Stamps are, the Cats have a better chance of getting to the Cup.
They are in an easier division.

BTW, I do not buy into these. I would rather consult a Quiji Board.
Way to much football to be played. We are only half way through the season.

All of these lists are wrong... the Riders have zero chance of making it to the greycup lol

It's not wrong, it's odds based on various simulations and it will change from week to week based on new information. The Riders have less than 1 in 10,000 chance, which is essentially zero, but the Riders could go on a run and win all their remaining games and the teams ahead of them start losing regularly, they get hot in the playoffs and voila! They're in the Grey Cup!

If they sweep the Bombers in the next two weeks, you will see the odds change.

Let's not forget the 2011 Lions who started the season off 1-6, but then won 12 of their next 13 games, earning home field advantage for the Western Final and capturing the 99th Grey Cup. :thup:

It is like the hare and turtle race.

It is not a fast start that is important. It is the finish.

Some teams take time to gel.