Really good race to the Olympics on the mens side while the women’s group will be more of a coronation.
MENS - Prolly 5 of the 8 competing teams can win. Favorites obviously are the Brads - Jacobs and Gushue (Gushue playing one of his final events before his announced retirement from the sport). Koe, that slithering sea-monster salamander always capable of big things with his power-shot capabilities. McEwen also a contender. Good to see the ultimate mope, Reid Carruthers didn’t make the skate. Carruthers always shows promise but invariable lets down the side. Big shocker when he lost Brad Jacobs after the fungus skip was fired in Alberta and the team begged Jacobs to take over. Looking for the ultimate longshot - the Young Guns, Jordan McDonald of Manitoba.
WOMENS - This is simply a coronation over a few days. Major shocker if Rachel Homan doesn’t take the duke. Basically, there’s the world class Homan (best shot-maker in women’s curling) and there’s 7 mope teams, essentially Homan and The Seven Dwarfs.
Big jump from Homan to any of the dwarf teams. Kaitlynn Lawes, the ex Jennifer Jones vice has all the shots but her team of Mighty Mites tends to come up short in big events. This is a big event. Hammerin’ Kate Cameron is a powerful hitting team but usually shrivel up facing Homan. Christina Black the Acadian Ax Girls are prolly the toughest team - at least mentally. The only betting line is whether Homan loses 1 game or no games!
2 takeaways from the womens field. Perennial Canadian contender, the morose Krista McCarville couldn’t crack this mediocre field. She’s a spectator. Also, 4 time Scotties winner Kerri Einarson, who will prolly be slotted at the #2 favorite is basically done like dinner. The once strong Einarson has degenerated into a frantic bundle of nerves who misses tons of routine shots. Einarson is basically a 70% curler; Homan is a 90% girl. Too much of a differential to overcome. Einarson will be fortunate sneaking into the trial playoffs.
Just got back from 4 days in Halifax enjoying the trials. Nice Summary. Not far off at all. Very sad to hear about the passing of Colleen Jones. One of the greatest ever to do it for sure.
Canadian curling pretty much the form chart. Homan dumped the obligatory game to make the thing appear dramatic.
She destroyed a totally vulnerable Einarson in the final round-robin game to snatch a bye into the best o 3 final for the Olympic berth.
Einarson, coming off getting steam-rolled by Homan reverted to her usual nervous and puzzled-look form vs. the tough Halifax grinders, Tina Black & Co. Black curled 90%, Einarson was gifted 75% but more like 67%. Stunning this game was close until Black finally put Einarson away in the 9th end with a rib-rocking 3-bagger. Both Einarson and her third “Sweety” put in poor efforts.
Don’t be surprised if this group disbands shortly after the season ends. Main reason Einarson won 4 straight Scotties is those were the years Homan didn’t have a competent third - she was burdened with the chatty but low-scoring Big Mamma, Emma Miskew. Once Homan acquired Tracey Fleury she was sailing in clean air. Could end up with 8 Scotties titles. Now has to get herself one of them gold Olympic medals.
Odds of Homan winning 2 straight vs. Black = 85%
Odds of Black winning 1 game = 14%
Odds of Black winning the berth = 2.5%
No pressure on Black. They’re ranked as discards. Homan just has to keep pumping in at 90% or thereabouts - her team is always around 85%, if not closer to 90%. Homan possesses superior ice-reading skills than the off-kilter Einarson. Combined with her flawless delivery and solid strategy she’s virtually unbeatable. On the world scene - only the gritty Swiss led by Alina Patz can withstand Homan’s assault. That should be the Olympic final.
PS. Look for Team Einarson to disband sometime in the New Year. Suspect Shannon Birchard may decide to move up to skip (her original junior position) and take current Einarson lead Karlee Burgess with her at vice. Lots of rounders and grounders to pick from for the front end. My money would be on Kaitlyn Lawes for 2nd (she was an abject failure skipping this year), possibly Briane Meilleur at lead (Birchard’s former front end partner) - but they’ll be plenty of free agents looking for jobs next year. Einarson could actually win another Scotties (her 5th) if Homan is forced to abandon the Scotties because of her Olympic spot. That said, even in a Homan-Less Scotties, Einarson too often shoots herself in the foot and between her and Sweety they don’t really possess a full curling brain. Reid Carruthers is a deadbeat as their coach.
Lyle, Lyle. Einarson lost 7-6 to Homan. Must be a new definition of “steamroll”.
I know you’re not big on anything Manitoban or Winnipeg, but current Manitoban Dunstone beat life long Manitoban McEwen in the men’s semis and will face Jacobs in the Final. Overall an impressive showing by Manitoba teams, with Lawes missing the playoffs only on a tiebreaker. Hardly enough for her to pack it in and become a second somewhere.
Watching all the games first hand for the first 4 days, Einarson was the better team than Homan. Homan didn’t play their best game and likely hasn’t yet. They don’t have to to win.
As a Homan fan Einarson concerned me big time going into the final day and yes, Kerri missed a key draw which she’s been prone to do and gave Homan the win.
The gap between Homan and the rest is huge over the course of a season (she’s 87-3 against Canadian teams in the past two years) but the gap this week has not been much.
Homan is the huge favourite against Black and I may eat my words for this but Einarson likely would have given Homan more of a run for her money. But at the end of the day Homan entered this event -1250 to win which is absolutely insane odds and given the historic two years she’s had she deserves to represent Canada at the Olympics.
I also disagree that Einarson will disband, if Homan wins the trials Einarson gets a free pass to the Scotties as team Canada and will likely win that event. They finally are healthy with Burgess and Birchard playing very well, Brianne Harris stuff in the rear mirror.
I would not be shocked if they narrow the gap to Homan should Homan continue with this lineup for the next 4 years.
Having said all that, Homan needs to take care of business against Black as a massive favourite to wear the maple leaf in Italy.
I see what you’re saying. Homan, with immense odds behind her had to play 7 flawless or near flawless matches to run thru the round-robin. SHe got nipped by the pesky Skrillex in her only loss and Skrillx was full value even though she petered out the rest of the runway.
Homan’s team has a near flawless system of rock placement and Rachel herself if unparalleled as a final shot tosser. Only ones who come close are Jennifer Jones (lower percentages but even more guile & cunning than Homan) and Sandra Schmirler. I’d put Colleen JOnes in there too but Coco was primarily a defensive curler who used her third to trap opposing teams - and she did it very well.
Einarson has become more erratic the last couple years with complete whiffs out of the blue. Player to player she can’t stand up to Homan - few can. And now, Val “Sweety” Sweeting doesn’t seem able to stand up to Tracey Fleury who is perhaps the best third player on the planet. (Silvana Tirinzoni might dispute). Birchard, a promising skip years ago will be 33 next curling year. Does she want to continue labouring for an erratic (but often brilliant) skip? Burgess is a natural 3rd, not a lead imho. Val Sweets might be best off trying to cobble together an Alberta team capable of dislodging Homan, Black, Einarson, etc. as top dogs.
As far as Lawes is concerned - she was a brilliant junior skip and a great all-star 3rd for Jennifer Jones. Her recent skipping pedigree is full of questions. Can’t put the rocks in the right spot - which all the greats could do - Homan, Jones, Jones, Hackner, Martin, Koe, Gushue, Duguid, Watson, Folk, Ferbey, Howards, Northcott, Baldwin, etc.
Basically there were only 3 top teams in these trials and they finished they way they should other than Einarson getting kicked out in the semi-final.
Homan had a scare in the 10th with a shot that I’m not sure was actually there.
Dunstone seemed a little overwhelmed by the moment.
Game 2s are Sat. Could see the men going 3. The women feels like Black had her chance with Homan not playing great, if I were betting Homan wouldn’t play that poorly in game 2.
Didn’t see the Black/Homan affair but obviously not surprised Homan took the duke. Black and her Haligonians have been curling like pesky buzzards all week - destroying Kerri Einarson’s tenuous Olympic dream with relative ease, despite Einarson’s domination of Black over the last few years. Einarson is the picture of vulnerability these days. Homan, even when a bit worn down and emotionally drained IS NOT.
But if anyone is going to topple the Mighty Homan Empire - its the girls from the Maritimes. They’ll need to curl up a near perfect storm - and Homan will have to miss some half shots for the series to extend to a 3rd and final game for all the Olympic marbles.
As far as Dunstone is concerned - yes, you’re on the mark Crash - Matty was overwhelmed. If Matt reps Canada at Olympics Canada will compete for 2nd to 5th overall; Jacobs will be Top 3. Edin & The Swiss Boys are tough outs, Mouat may be the best in the world (UK). Dunstone’s undoing was some weak curling in the last couple ends by one of the Harndens (front end) and both Colton Lott and Dunstone himself fanned extremely makeable shots, either by over-thinking or just plum nervous breakdowns. Can’t see Jacobs letting the Manitobans off the hook in Game 2 but you never know. And make no mistake Matt Dunstone & Crew are world class. They made it to the finals - where monsters like Goo & Koe couldn’t.
PS. One other note on Einarson. I don’t believe she’ll have to play the Manitoba Scotties due to her high points standings in Canada. Should have been given a passport into the National Scotties. So Manitoba event will be battled w/ teams like Lawes, Hammerin’ Kate Cameron & the frantic Beth Peterson plus a couple others ready to TKO the front-runners. If Homan can’t play the Scotties due to Olympic commitments I imagine Einarson will be Scotties favorites - although in her current state of mind I don’t think she’ll be up to the task. Black, Skrillex or even Corryn Brown (despite a horrid trials) all capable of upending Einarson.
If Homan wins the Trials Einarson would automatically be Team Canada at the Scotties due to her second place finish last year. I think she’d be the instant favourite and likely win.
It was definitely a David vs. Goliath moment (Black upending Einarson) but remember, Goliath was never the same after David “toppled” him!!!
PS. The pesky girls (Code Black) are rollickin’ fan faves vs. the heavy favorites Goliath Homan. One thing I didn’t like is Black replacing her #1 power curler (2nd Marlee Powers) with Jen Baxter in the game vs. Homan. Powers stood toe to toe with one of the best 2nd s in the game, Shannon Birchard when Black defeated Einarson so the question - WHY REPLACE HER WITH A LESSER PLAYER? Power is one of the few BIG GIRL FRONT-ENDERS in the ladies game (right up there with Jill Officer, Miskew, Jo Courtney, Birchard, etc.) so why wouldn’t you take her all the way down the well?
But Einarson is on a bit of an upswing now that her team is healthy, set, and the Harris fiasco over with.
I expect them to win the Scotties if Homan isn’t there and then all bets are off for the next 4 years based on the musical chairs that’s set to happen.
I can certainly see Homan going for more Scotties titles in the next 4 years. She’s not a baby anymore, I think she’s 34 or 35 but could get to 7 Scotties titles with ease in her current lineup, maybe another World title (or more) plus the elusive Olympic gold. Have a sinking feeling Homan might discard (or more politely retire) her childhood friend Emm Miskew, who’d be a fairly old front-ender if they go another cycle; possibly replacing Big Emm with another “poach”, someone like Shannon Birchard (my first choice if Homan goes a poachin’) or even bring back Courtney. Marlee Powers would also be a longshot to catapult onto Team Homan.
Team Black is a pain in the ass. Constantly mucking it up and forcing Homan into tough shots. Score does not reflect the feel of the game thus far but it feels like a matter of time now.
Thankfully Canada will likely be sending the right team to the Olympics this go around unlike 4 years ago when Jones fell into the spot.