Blue Bombers Playoff Chances

Final two games last night ended the merriment at Buck Pierce’s colony party. Sask’n gets to 8 wins, BC now has 6 wins (same as us) with 1 game in hand.

Edmonton may be our prey down the stretch and we’ve got them next week.

Edmonton’s team operation is almost as chaotic as ours. Only difference is that they have Mike Reilly and we don’t.

Reilly can carry the Eskimo elephant on his back. Nichols is a game manager - when he’s on he needs a full team effort to produce victory.

Chase for 3rd in west or crossover now miraculously involves 4 teams, not just the two we had last week (Wpg & BC)

Edmonton & Sask’n added to the mix.

Sask’n now the favorite to nab 2nd in west, nipping a semi freefallin’ Esks squad.

For us to eke out the Riders we have to win 2 games min. and they have to win ZERO. Thats not gonna happen.

However, its somewhat possible the riders can only win one more game - then we have to win 3 to nip 'em.

Essentially we have to win either 3 or 4 of our remaining 5 games to have a shot at 2nd, 3rd or crossover.

Chances according to Lyles of London:

Bombers finishing 2nd in West - 8.5%
Bombers finishing 3rd in West - 11.5%
Bombers nabbing crossover - 28%
Bombers finishing out of playoffs - 52%

If Bombers put a bag over Edmonton’s head next weekend the odds re-set significantly . . .

Reilly didn’t look like the superstar you think he is in the Ott game.
What worries me is we have to go into the den of a recently wounded team once again. Edm is gonna be mad and they might just take it out on us. Seems to be a recurring event with our team.

Yeah, if by some miracle we can claw out a win in Edm, my faith will be renewed. Otherwise, start planning for next year’s training camp

That Ott- Edm game was pretty strange.

Bigger problem for bombers is winning with a significant portion of the following guys M.I.A. w/ injuries:

  • Andrew Harris
  • Adam Bighill
  • Weston Dressler
  • Nic Demski

Demski is somewhat inconsequential as his kick returns are basically 1 or 2 yd affairs and plop. He'll make the odd nice catch for 10 to 12 yds, a couple sweeps to the boundary for good yards, otherwise just a spectator.

Losing 2 of 3 from the group of Harris, Bighill, Dressler would be tragic.

Bombers secondary looked good vs. Als hobos, especially a washed up Addy Bowman. Can they sustain vs. Reilly & The Duke, Durel Walker (if he returns)?

The Roughriders have been winning with smoke and mirrors. I’m not a believer. Though against the Alouettes this coming week they could eke out a 1-0 victory, in OT. After a last minute drive in regulation to tie the game of course.

;D

…Playoff picture fading badly down the stretch for the BIGBLUE…I doubt whether it’s in our hands anymore AND when you have to depend on the failure of other clubs to reach your goal, you usually don’t…Writings been on the wall for quite awhile now…No effort to shore up a failing roster…4 game skid…looking like we should be tied for Mont. in the basement in the last game (could have gone either way easily)….Sorry guys but I’ve seen this picture before with this club and I think it’s all over for 18’…Quite the switch around from the promised land and all of the ballyhoo and bull$hit we were fed at the beginning of the year…IF it all goes the way I think a complete house cleaning is in order…There’s too many pretenders cashing cheques right now, with Bomber logo’s on them, and they’re mostly in management…

….Edm. will be a very nasty hungry team(especially at home) and wanting to hang with Sask. and B.C. in the standings…Don’t see wins in their building in either game

….Ottawa wants first place and to stay ahead of Ham…don’t see a win in that city

….Sask. in our digs…didn’t seem to work out for us last game and now they really have something to play for while we’ll be hanging on the ropes…could be the trifecta

……Cal. at home after our bye week…miiiiiiight have a shot at that one if they’re resting their players but by then I think we’ll have been polishing up the golf clubs

….Edm. …back in the igloo where they could be in a desperate fight for third with B.C…very doubtful win there

…soooooooo all in all… still a lot of football left as of now but IF we don’t have everyone going it’s a very dim picture of ever getting to postseason, never mind going anywhere in it…

….I think our chances down the stretch are slim and none and slim left town last month’’'This is however the CFL and a win in Edmonton and then again in Ottawa could change everything…………………….The realist in me says ‘we’re done’
the heart felt optimist in me says ‘hope springs eternal’… I don’t like what I’m seeing presently and I hope to hell I’m wrong

…But if it does go the way I’ve suggested AND we don’t clean house…IGF will resemble B.C. Place next year in attendance

Agree with all your premises Papa - except the final one. Don’t think they’ll be a deep drop in attendance (4,500 to 6,000 per game) but certainly they’ll be a drop, especially if Wad Miller is allowed to re-up all the usual mopes in GM, AGM, HC, DC & OC

If bombers fall clean out of playoff contention - ie. no crossover either, with a record of 6-12, 7-11 or 8-10 they’ll be thoughts/threats of change in the air but most of the jobs will be keepers (except for Richie Hall)

If Bombers get to 9-9 by going 3-2 down the stretch - then a decent chance at crossover - but quick elimination in Hamilton for ESF. . . . if they get 9-9 then pretty much guaranteed all the usual suspects will be back with a fresh package of excuses and hopes for the future!!!

Re: Attendance - if team goes 6-12 to 8-10 I suspect only a few diehards will discard their season tix. Main reason = Bomber season tix @ around $625 to $950 a pair is cheap entertainment, regardless of record compared to Jets season tix = $5,500 to $8,800+ a pair

If Bombers gas out this year - even if they keep the suspects around - perhaps a 4.5% to 7.0% cancel rate on season tix - thats only 750 to 1,300 lost plus a commensurate downturn in gameday sales.

Team will still average 23,800 (at the lowest) to 25,800 (at the highest) as the 33,500 sold for Banjo slaughter and the 29,500 sold for home opener will boost the averages!

Miller will be in the deepest doodoo when gates submerge below my self-imposed mendoza line (aka around 22,000)

……I would agree on your year ending assessment Lyle EXCEPT for one thing…I’ve been talking to a lot of the Bomber faithful and reading and listening to what they’ve been saying…FED UP to the teeth with the present coach and now some have included the gm… 26 yrs. and counting …plus the fact it is looking more and more like another bloody rebuild after five yrs. of this present bunch…It has led to a lot of soul searching…It’s not going to be an easy sell next year if this present bunch is retained…Quite frankly their credibility will be shot IF we finish out of the playoff picture…I see a precipitous drop off in attendance with revenue hitting dangerous lows…The hard corps of supporters will have finally been affected…and that’s going to be a hit the board will not tolerate…I see a few pink slips being handed out…notably to the head coach and defensive coordinator …The gm might escape the axe but his job will clearly be on the line…Of course this is all dependent on how we finish…I agree with you Lyle that a papering over might occur IF we just creep into postseason and are a one and done…This will be seen as just another postponement of the inevitable BUT all bets are off if we don’t make post season at all…There’s going to be some bloodletting and it won’t be pretty

I don’t see the Bombers going below 20,000/game - even if they lose their next 5 games and start the endless loop of O’Shea saluting the flag, his players and his coaches!

Mike goes out as Mike came in - proud warrior - dirty & effective player - wimpish & oft-puzzled coach!

The only key to the bomber fortunes is what the breach point is!

Whats the breach point? Good question, glad u’all asked . . . .

Its the point where revenues continue a steady if not hard negative slide - and the team reaches a point where it can’t pay its bonuses (many players get their entire salary in advance as a selling point to stay or come to Winnipeg)

When that happens and it could easily happen - the tell will be whether Wad Miller is prepared to go to the Manitoba premier with a request for advances, fresh loans, temporary loans, grants, call them whatever you want - basically a money call . . . .

Right now I’m certain the bombers have enough retained earnings to drain that the crisis or breach point won’t happen this year - and probably next!

But when it does - it won’t be minor flooding to the basement. It will be an onslaught like never seen before.

Miller will try to build camouflage - might even seek some bank or private financing before running like a scalded dog to the premier - but if the trend is down - the trend is down - and Miller/Bombers will require a fresh injection of capital to staunch the bleeding.

If things sour out this year and the final 2 games average 21,000 to 22,000 (virtually no walk-up and diminished concessions) that would be an early sign.

Then, in 2019 seas. tickets go down 12 to 20% and walk ups decline accordingly the breach point might be in the off-season between 2019 and the start of the 2020 season - anticipation of much lower cash flow from season ticket sales - reliance on the annual TSN injection, etc.

If not the off-season between '19 and '20 then certainly at some point during the 2020 season - Miller takes the Big Jeep ride to the legislature, cap in hand and tries to sell Pallister on keeping the thing alive for the balance of 2020 plus some extra hot sauce to insure 2021 happens.