2013 Playoff Chances

Well, we have six games left in the season, and realistically, the entire west division appears like they are about to punch their ticket to the post season, and the Argos are one game from clinching so I thought I'd start a thread discussing the teams warring for the last two spots in the East division.

Hamilton - Current Record 6/6 - Tiebreakers: Won vs Winnipeg, winning 1/3 vs Montreal, losing 1/3 vs Toronto
Remaining Games: Cal, @Tor, Tor, @Mon, Mon, @Win

Hamilton currently has the best chances of making the post season. The recent win over Montreal means one more win against the Als wins them the tiebreaker, which if that happens, would effectively put Montreal four games back on Hamilton if the teams keep pace with each other. This would also make an east division semi-final home game likely for the Ti-Cats. If the tabbies get three more wins, Winnipeg and Edmonton cannot catch them and they are in the post season. The games vs Toronto are crucial as they present Hamilton, not only a chance to punch their ticket to the post season early and a clear morale boost for the team, but also a solid chance of knocking Toronto of the 1st of the East pedestal.

Montreal - Current Record 4/8 - Tiebreakers: Tied 1/3 vs Winnipeg, losing 1/3 vs Hamilton, losing 2/4 vs Toronto (21 point differential)
Remaining Games: Sask, @Edm, Win, Ham, @Ham, @Tor

After Hamilton, Montreal currently has the 2nd best chance of making it to the post-season. That being said, it's not a cake walk by any means for the Als. If Winnipeg wins the remaining game, Winnipeg will hold the tiebreak of the series. Conversely if the Als win, that could effectively end Winnipeg's chances. Also, is Edmonton beats Montreal and they've kept pace, Edmonton as well is within one game of crossing over. Montreal's schedule however is by far the easiest with a game vs Edmonton, the crucial Winnipeg game and a home@home vs the still somewhat inconsistent Hamilton.

Winnipeg - Current Record 2/10 - Tiebreakers: Tied 1/3 vs Montreal, Lost vs Hamilton, losing 1/3 vs Toronto
Remaining Games: BC, @Cal, @Mon, Tor, @Tor, Ham

Realistically, if Winnipeg beats Montreal in week 16, that's a huge boost for Winnipeg's playoff chances if they keep current pace with the Als. That makes them one game back from a payoff spot. It's possible for Winnipeg to do it, but BC and Calgary are arguably harder games then Montreal's Saskatchewan and Edmonton. From there, well tough games vs Toronto and Hamilton await. Winnipeg also has to worry about Edmonton making a strong showing, but not as much as Montreal.

Edmonton - Current Record 3/9 - Tiebreaker Status: N/A Crossover rules require finishing with a better record, lost vs BC
Remaining Games: Tor, Mon, @Sask, Cal, @BC, @Sask

I added the lost tiebreaker vs BC to the list to emphasize that Edmonton making it to the post season in the West division is very unlikely. They are effectively five games back on BC since they lost the tiebreak. So that leaves crossing over to the East. As it stands, they need to win at least two and have Montreal lose out and Winnipeg to not cause them any trouble. Is that possible, yes but not very likely, since this would also require Winnipeg to beat Montreal and also lose out. Realistically the Esks need at least four wins here in my eyes. The problem here is without a doubt, Edmonton has the hardest schedule remaining as Calgary, Saskatchewan twice don't bode well fort he Esks. That and they have a must win over Montreal.

What are your thoughts?

I think it's going to be as follows.

West

  1. Calgary
  2. Saskatchewan
  3. BC

East

  1. Toronto
  2. Hamilton
  3. Montreal

I think Montreal brought it's best game vs Hamilton that last game, I don't see their QBs having a much better game again. I think Mike Riley is going to spoil the Edmonton game for them and Winnipeg will overcome Montreal with their defence. However the rest of the season for Winnipeg and Edmonton are going to be disappointments. Hamilton has had Winnipeg's number all year, Saskatchewan & Calgary will prove too much for Riley's gusto, I think Montreal and Toronto are both going to split the Hamilton series, not due to their own efforts but from Hamilton's inconsistency. Your thoughts?

Playoffs are set. West is Saskatchewan, BC and Calgary, East is Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton. The order of finish is up for grabs, but very unlikely those 6 will not play in November.

The Edmonton crossover possibility is being floated by 3downhound, but that's nothing more than a pipe dream. Edmonton has the toughest possible schedule down the stretch, there is no way they win 2 more games than Montreal does when 5 of those 6 games are against the top 4 teams in the league.

Winnipeg beating out Montreal is more likely yet even that is less likely to happen than getting struck by lighting twice on the same spot. Winnipeg has the worst offense, worst defense and a revolving door at QB and they need to win 2 more games than Montreal if they beat the Als next month, 3 more if they lose that game. They have a far harder schedule than Montreal with 2 against Toronto and 1 each against BC, Calgary and Hamilton (who have already beat them 3 times by an average of 16 points).

Do all the math you want, there is no playoff battle this season, just a battle by the teams already there for the right to hist a game. Edmonton and Winnipeg have 6 games left in 2013.

I think you are pretty much spot on about Edmonton. I just don't see them making it. Too many hard games left, with realistically the only potential win coming @home vs the Als.

Winnipeg however I think has around a 10% shot. It's fair to say that the peg doesn't win their next two, and the Als beating Sask is unlikely. However if Montreal lays an egg in Edmonton and Winnipeg beats Montreal, they win the tiebreak which means if they tie the Als they are in, and they will only be one game back.

From there, yes Winnipeg has a harder schedule then Montreal, but not by much. I mean, Hamilton, Hamilton, Toronto isn't leaps and bounds easier then Toronto, Toronto, Hamilton. It's unlikely, yes but I wouldn't say it would be a shocker.

I'll call it a shocker. Montreal is a shadow of the team they have been the last 10 years, but they have played well at times this year and got a few breaks go against them. Winnipeg is a disaster. They beat the Riders on pure emotion. Pride of needing their first win in the new stadium and it being Banjo Bowl. I say it's not going to happen more based on comparing the 2 teams and it's not that Montreal is a couple of rungs up the ladder, more like Winnipeg can't even reach the bottom rung from the depths they have sunk this season.

The more interesting battles are for positioning. Can Hamilton catch Toronto (they play a home and home starting in 2 weeks), BC is an outside shot for first but any of the 3 could host the semi and first is still up for grabs between Riders and Stamps (they have comparable schedules with one more game against each other).

As of the conclusion of everyone's 12 regular season game ... here are everyone's calculated Playoff Chances/Odds.

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/football/Canada/CFL.html

Hope that helps.

According to the, Edmonton has less then 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. They have less then a 0.0003, so less then a 3 to a million shot. Heck, you could almost blow up three death stars with that! Yeah...they are out of the running.

Winnipeg as stated fares better according to this, it is a little less then 4.3% so a 1/25 shot of making it. So I was a little off my guess. It's possible, unlikely but possible, but certainly better odds then the less then 1/6250 of being struck by lightening once in your lifetime.

I don't think this is taking into account the crossover rules though, but it was handy to see. Thanks Fender.

It does take into consideration cross-over rules.

Here's an explanation of what it is/does ...

Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win. The 50/50 method gives each opponent an equal chance of winning each game. Both methods let an appropriate percent of games end in a tie or go into overtime in leagues where that matters. When it’s finished "playing" all the remaining games it applies the league’s tie breaking rules to see where everyone finished. It repeats this random playing out of the season million of times (try it yourself), keeping track of how many "seasons" each team finishes where. Finally it updates this page with the new results for you to read with your morning coffee. To help flush out each team’s highest and lowest possible seeds, I force them to win or lose all their remaining games for a small percentage of the simulation runs. All the change columns are since the end of yesterday. The biggest movers up and down are in bold. The teams are ordered by their odds of making the playoffs (more interesting than their record.) Click on a team to see its big games and what if scenarios. P G W-L-T GD: Current points, games in hand (relative to the other teams listed), wins, losses, ties, and goals delta (goals we scored - goals scored against us). A team gets 2 points for a win, 0 points for a loss, and 1 point for a tie. Chance will make playoffs: This is what we care about. Out of the millions of simulated seasons they made the playoffs this percentage of the time. Sums the odds for the 6 seeds left of the red "playoff cut" line. Chance will finish regular season at seed: The numbers are rounded percentages, so a 0 means a very small number that rounded to 0. You can hover your mouse above a number to see the "full" percentage and what the team did to get there. If there is a blank space for a position the team never finished there after any of the millions of simulated seasons, although it still might be mathematically possible. Avg: Average finishing position at the end of the season. It is the arithmetic mean, so if they come in 1st half the time and 5th the other half the average would be 3 (even though they never actually finish 3rd). The sign is flipped so negative is bad. RPI: Ratings Percentage Index rank among all team in the league. Listed here for kicks, it does not factor into the simulation. Hover over the rank to see the actual RPI value and how many spots the rank changed (with the sign flipped so negative is bad). Strength: Expected winning percentage the weighted method uses when simulating games. To calculate we start with (depending on the league) either the current winning percentage or a fancier formula based on goals delta . Then the percentage is regressed towards the mean, a fancy way of saying nudged back towards .500, a lot early in the season and less and less as the season progresses.