Let’s suppose the season ended today. Based on years 1990 to 2011, the top team has won 11 of 22 previous grey cups. Second best team 4. Third team 3. Fourth 2. Fifth 2. If trend continues, BC’s chance of being champion is 50% which is better than any other team.
If there is an upset, Calgary or Saskatchewan has the best chance of stopping BC. In 8 of 11 upsets, the underdog had among the top two offenses or defenses. Calgary’s chance is slightly better because strong offenses (5) tend to win more often than strong defenses (3) in CFL playoffs. In 2012, BC struggles the most against strong defenses but BC is less likely to face them. Calgary has home advantage over Saskatchewan and the same with Montreal over Toronto. Edmonton may be eliminated in the east because no crossover team has ever advanced to finals. Best scenario for BC is to face Calgary and Montreal based on history.