2012 champion probabilities

Let’s suppose the season ended today. Based on years 1990 to 2011, the top team has won 11 of 22 previous grey cups. Second best team 4. Third team 3. Fourth 2. Fifth 2. If trend continues, BC’s chance of being champion is 50% which is better than any other team.

If there is an upset, Calgary or Saskatchewan has the best chance of stopping BC. In 8 of 11 upsets, the underdog had among the top two offenses or defenses. Calgary’s chance is slightly better because strong offenses (5) tend to win more often than strong defenses (3) in CFL playoffs. In 2012, BC struggles the most against strong defenses but BC is less likely to face them. Calgary has home advantage over Saskatchewan and the same with Montreal over Toronto. Edmonton may be eliminated in the east because no crossover team has ever advanced to finals. Best scenario for BC is to face Calgary and Montreal based on history.

"Edmonton may be eliminated in the east because no crossover team has ever advanced to finals".


I think people are forgetting that Edmonton is only one game back of Sask. It is not unrealistic for Sask to lose to BC and Montreal, especially BC in BC.

Edmonton does have a tough schedule, playing two on the road, against Montreal, and BC, and then home to Calgary, but I can see them winning at least one, and maybe an outside chance of an upset.


The Argos implode in their final 3, Edmonton takes the east crossover beats Hamilton and Montreal on the way to an all Alberta Grey Cup with the Eskimoes finally beat the Stamps this season.

I'm either psychic or crazy, I'll let you know next month. :rockin:

I have to agree here, Montreal and Toronto are injured, I can't see them beating Edmonton

Edmonton's constant rotation of players, especially on the offensive side of the ball and at the QB position, may be to their advantage going in to playoffs as there is not alot of film on them. I can see the crossover team going to the Grey Cup this year, whether that is Saskatchewan or Edmonton. Hopefully that will then lead to a 1 division league, especially with Ottawa coming back in 2014.

ok someone has been blowing smoke up your....

Montreal will kill Edmonton.

Assuming it is Edmonton, I will let you know on November 18th how well you've prognosticated on this one. Seems to me you predicted a Saskatchewan victory on Saturday as well.

I am concerned that it will be Saskatchewan going East and the way Durant and the vaunted Canadian Air force played on Saturday, the dream of an all west Grey Cup will be lost.

A few times you have said the above Quote and it has back fired. Tony Stark built Iron Man in a cave too: Evil Empire :twisted: Is it game time yet?...October 28th in Montreal :cowboy:

I don't think that Montreal will necessarily beat Edmonton, or that Edmonton will necessarily beat Montreal. But it is worth noting that we went into Commonwealth Stadium earlier this year missing multiple weapons on offense (no Richardson or Whitaker) and smoked Edmonton, posting 28 points in the first half alone. Anyone writing us off because of our injuries might be in for a surprise in the playoffs. :wink:

Here are the probabilities of each team to win the Grey Cup, in the form of percentages.

B.C. Lions : 43.81%
Montreal Alouettes : 17.37%
Calgary Stampeders : 15.22%
Saskatchewan Roughriders : 11.15%
Edmonton Eskimos : 6.43%
Toronto Argonauts : 6.01%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats : 0.01%
Winnipeg Blue : 0.00%

*Note: The percentages above are completely arbitrary and follow no pattern or formula other than my opinion as to how likely I consider it that each individual team could win the Grey Cup. :wink:

Last weekend against the boat people you had Richardson and couldn’t muster an offensive point for almost a full half. I don’t care what happened “earlier” in the season if Montreal can’t finish off a disorganized lot like the Argos by halftime they should be worried about any opponent they will face in the playoffs. Defense was OK, but your offense didn’t show up until the 2nd half and that will end their season early in the playoffs.

First of all, every team is going to have a half during which they aren't productive.

Second, Chris Jones always fields good defenses. Not sure why you think we should have been able to score on them at will, especially when...

...we were missing Green, London (after a few plays), Whitaker, and Guy, to say nothing of losing Victor Anderson and Eric Deslauriers in the second half. Seriously, we're down to almost a scout-team offense, and we haven't had our starting receivers and RB on the field at the same time since WEEK SIX.

I don't care what happened "earlier" in the season
Um, why is earlier in quotation marks? :lol: Is there some reason to doubt that what happened earlier was actually earlier?
if Montreal can't finish off a disorganized lot like the Argos by halftime they should be worried about any opponent they will face in the playoffs.
Because a poor half of football unequivocally means that a team is subpar. Uh huh. Sure. Iron-clad logic there. You do know that the defending Grey Cup champions have had plenty of moments this season when they've looked beatable? Quarters and halves, even.
Defense was OK,
Five sacks, a pick six, and holding Toronto to 12 points overall and 3 points in the second half ... is OK. :lol:
but your offense didn't show up until the 2nd half and that will end their season early in the playoffs.
You seem to have it all figured out. I forgot that we're the only offense in the league that had a bad half. THE ONLY ONE. Everyone else has been lights-out for 60 minutes.

Here are the probabilities of each team to win the Grey Cup, in the form of percentages.

B.C. Lions : 36.82%
Calgary Stampeders : 21.22%
Edmonton Eskimos : 19.66%
Montreal Alouettes : 10.49%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats : 05.66%
Saskatchewan Roughriders : 05.65%
Toronto Argonauts : 0.50%
Winnipeg Blue : 0.00%

*Note: The percentages above follow a complex and mathematical pattern of probability of outcomes based on performance this season, individual and team stats, expected weather as outlined in the Farmers Almanac and team astrological reading for the next six weeks to determine the likelihood of each team winning the 100th Grey Cup. :wink:

The Argos they faced last Sunday should have been done like dinner by halftime. AC was way off his game in the 1st half and it showed. Holding the "mighty" Argo offense to 12 points is nothing to brag about, that should be expected. Montreal had a bad game and had they played a professional football team last weekend the outcome likely would not have been as pleasant for the Als.

Such transparent sour grapes. It's hilarious. :lol: Go ahead and cherry-pick one half of football from one game and pretend that it's some sort of harbinger of a team's fortunes for the remainder of the season.

I never said I thought Montreal would annihilate Edmonton in the playoffs (should the two teams even meet). Maybe Edmonton beats Montreal. Maybe Montreal beats Edmonton. There's no reason to write either team off. The evidence from this year, though, suggests that we are very capable of beating Edmonton even when missing key personnel.

Frankly, the only team that is head and shoulders above the rest is B.C. Everyone else? Variable, especially with every team battling injuries.

Well after seeing BC crap the bed big with that no show performance in the 2007 WF, after they were favourites, I say any team can take it all if they show up and have a little luck on their side.

We also seen this in hockey with the Canucks taking the Prez trophy 2 yrs in a row and not being able to finish...it's sports. Get red hot near the end of the season and in the playoffs and teams will go far. I think BC is under performing now so the door may be wide open for others...

Indeed. Calgary was the favorite to repeat in 2009 and they didn't even make it to the Grey Cup game. Montreal went 14-4 in 2004 and lost the EDF when Calvillo went down. Regular-season success doesn't guarantee playoff success, especially not in an eight-team league with a 3-game postseason.