2011 NFL Draft Overs & Unders

Basically most of the time the NFL scouts get it right in the first round.

The rest of the draft statistically is quite the crapshoot for sake of at least feature performance by a drafted player who even makes a team for his rookie season. For most positions, the odds go down for sake of the chances of even making a team even further when you get to the fifth round.

Here as "Armchair GM" again in order below are my "overs and unders" for the 2011 NFL Draft, as in overrated players to be drafted and underrated players overlooked to be drafted and signed at a bargain or to be playing out of free agency:


Overrated/Poison Pills In 1st Round

Cam Newton QB
Mark Ingram RB
Any QB But Gabbert

Overrated In Late 1st/Early 2nd Round

All Other RBs
Jabaal Sheard DE
Jerrel Jernigan WR
Randall Cobb WR

Underrated -- Projected In 2nd Round But Should Be Drafted In First Or Earlier In 2nd

Martez Wilson ILB
Justin Houston OLB
Brandon Harris CB, Torrey Smith WR, and Leonard Hankerson WR

Marvin Austin DT
Brooks Reed OLB
Drake Nevis DT

Underrated Dark Horses In 3rd Round And Lower In No Particular Order

Marcus Gilchrist CB
Lawrence Guy 4-3 DT/3-4 DE
DeMarco Murray RB
Jordan Todman RB
Dontay Moch OLB
Edmond Gates WR
Buster Skrine CB-5
DeMarcus Van Dyke CB-5
Jermale Hines FS
Tori Gurley WR-4

In 2010 for your reference as a "Rookie Armchair GM", below are my few "overs"/underrated players who were all at least feature players with their stats and performances as rookies.

Of course overall I missed many others and/or was too optimistic including just plain choosing too many lower-round players for some positions.

TE
Jimmy Graham, 3rd Round (2nd TE on my list)

WR
David Gettis, 6th (4th receiver on my list)
Blair White, Undrafted, (9th)

CB
Sam Shields, Undrafted, (6th)

S
Morgan Burnett, 3rd (4th FS on my list, but made starter at Green Bay as SS for Game 1 as he remained before being injured in Game 4)

Here are some notes on how the predictions below went, and whenever there is another season we'll see what happens then.

Basically of those I listed as overrated, all except three out of the four QBs correctly were chopped out of the first round. Once again the scouts duped the media and most of the public with their poker skills so to speak.

All those underrated as dark horses were drafted but the last two, which means those names probably won't be heard from again but for training camp or some practise roster.

The players listed in the second set of names, whose stock fell due to what appears to have been non-football or unknown issues, were taken in the second and third rounds and are bargains!

Interestingly, a trend with the drafting of wide receivers and cornerbacks has been solidified.

Only big receivers (6-3+, 210+) with speed, even unproven or with issues off the field, are chosen in the first round any more. No one wants to miss the next Randy Moss, as did Dallas' Jerry Jones, and is looking for the next Michael Irvin as is not Dez Bryant still in my opinion.

Furthermore, now in the lower rounds, no one wants to miss the next undersized and/or small school burner who can become a starter or major contributor such as DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Tramon Williams, or Sam Shields.

In that regard the teams took Van Kyke, Gates, and Skrine in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds rather than leaving such very fast players to even lower rounds or undrafted as were Tramon Williams and Shields.

So as an armchair scout, and football junkie, for the NFL Draft how did I do with my list below?

Well for 2011, I was better than 2010 and am more than a shade better than throwing darts at a board though.

My best hits for underrated players were WR Torrey Smith, OLB Brooks Reed, and RB DeMarco Murray.

My best hits for overrated players were Ingram, all QBs chosen in the first round other than Newton and Gabbert, and all RBs chosen in the 2nd round.

My worst misses were Newton, Dalton, and Gabbert.

Overrated Predictions 1st Round
Misses

Newton
Dalton

Hits

All other QBs drafted in the first round except Gabbert, whom I missed on too thinking he would be better
Ingram

Overrated Predictions Late 1st/Early 2nd Round
Misses
Jabaal Sheard
Randall Cobb

Hits
All RBs
Jerrel Jernigan

Underrated Predictions 2nd Round
Hits
Justin Houston
Torrey Smith
Brooks Reed

Misses
Martez Wilson
Brandon Harris
Leonard Hankerson
Drake Nevis
(Austin out injured in preseason)

Underrated Dark Horses/3rd Round Or Lower Picked Correctly
Gilchrist
Murray
Gates

Struggling For A Roster Spot
Todman
Hines
Gurley