NFL QB Shortage & Moves

NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Fri Feb 18, 2011 9:30 pm

Note this great, informative article by Vic Carucci that also implies why it is just so damn hard to find decent QBs from South of the border now. In fact I am not sure it's ever been this hard to find enough quality QB prospects on the entire continent!

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8 ... -with-need

Some notes:

Good Or Slightly Above Average QB's Ready For A Move And Best For The Spread Or West Coast Offences:

Flynn, Kolb, Hasselbeck aka "The Great Bald One," Orton, Palmer

Team likely to draft Blaine Gabbert, the top QB prospect, who is spread-offence ready: AZ, SF

Seven teams in dire need because either they have no one good they can keep or no one young with high enough upside:

AZ, CAR, MIA, SF, TN, SEA, WASH

And all the hype on Cam Newton? He's one of three first-round poison pills in my view.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by ohiofootball » Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:00 am

Cam Newton depends on who drafts him....He needs to go to a team with 2 decent Wide-outs and a decent running back.I think he will do good just depending on the team around him and who drafts him....He is better than Tebow as a dual threat quarterback any day
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Sat Feb 19, 2011 10:26 am

ohiofootball wrote:Cam Newton depends on who drafts him....He needs to go to a team with 2 decent Wide-outs and a decent running back.I think he will do good just depending on the team around him and who drafts him....He is better than Tebow as a dual threat quarterback any day


I can see that side of it Ohio though still have more doubt than hope for Newton based both on NFL history and his current draft profile. Also staged workouts don't count worth a lick but for the marketing hype and for media promos. The real coaches don't buy into those, and we'll see how Newton does with the standard route tree at the combine. And if he does not throw at the combine but opts for another staged pro-day, that's really when his stock will drop by draft day IMHO.

Who was the last NFL quarterback with such skills as a dual threat to be a consistent success? Answer: Michael Vick. Prior to that it was Steve Young and Steve McNair who both had far better passing skills at their core and way better than Vick.

However, note Vick's career is quite the fluke for sure with such success only confirmed after jail time and at age 30 this past season.

One could talk about Vick's early days in the last decade especially in those years with high rushing yards in Atlanta with a playoff win in cold Green Bay, but as happened to Randall Cunningham back in his early days, such NFL QBs who are too foot-happy are inevitably hobbled for some time.

Also in Vick's early days, though with a strong arm, Vick was not an accurate passer and never completed the magic 60% as is indicated of any genuinely good NFL QB by not just my statement but dominant opinion amongst pro football coaches as well as historical trends of pro success.

Mind you present-day OLBs at 240 or more with 4.7 40-speed, and bigger SS's with almost always better than 4.55 speed at 210+, are far more numerous than ever too to put serious licks on such scrambling QBs though some QBs are a bit faster and shifty than these defensive players if not also the same size or bigger.

Should Newton try to play like the next Vick or worse yet Vince Young, he'll be a flash in the pan for the NFL and just sell a bunch of jerseys and collect his massive checks.

Should Newton transform into Ben Roethlisberger on a ball control team, well even Big Ben is a fluke of sorts with overall poor career stats but great game management and especially his signature 4th quarter comebacks in close games that his defence keeps the Steelers in.

I see the Titans, Redskins, and Jaguars as the teams who might bite, and in each case they will have a very costly poison pill.

Alternatively, I can see any of the above just picking Newton to trade him down to someone else who wants him so they can get more picks in sort of a draft game of Old Maid. :)
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Thu Feb 24, 2011 7:40 am

Blaine Gabbert won't throw at the NFL combine. And why not? Because he does not need to do so because he's not being hyped or overrated -- that's why.

The others will. Why? Because they have to do so because they are overrated.

What a joke and dog-and-pony show that NFL combine is for the QB position.

The selection of new pro talent down here is so pathetic, but at least there are a few good backups in free agency available to more teams than I remember in quite awhile.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Mon Mar 07, 2011 7:42 am

Some interesting links here on NFL QB history and the NFL draft, and some good explanation why this year's mediocre and thin crop is getting more attention than usual other than of course the vested interest of the likes of ESPN to hype anyone from a major college football program:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d ... s-in-draft

Also here's a great statistical link:
http://www.drafthistory.com/positions/qb.html

Note the list of QBs taken as the highest pick, for which only Ryan, Palmer, and Eli Manning have or had shown consistent statistical promise with multiple seasons of a QB rating of 85 and with 60% completed, and with the anomaly of Michael Vick about whom no one would have remembered much but his runs if it were not for his numbers last season with the first time ever with a completion percentage of higher than a poor 56%!

What's really telling is that in the last decade all of the above guys were taken before the following Super Bowl winners:

Drew Brees, whose career is quite the fluke after a miracle recovery from a usually career-ending type of shoulder injury back in 2005;
Aaron Rodgers, who was clearly overlooked in the draft and about whom we knew far less until recently thanks to Brett Favre;
Ben Roethlisberger, for whom no one saw such success coming even after the first Super Bowl win and somehow made it through some serious indiscretions off the field

The point is that the matter has still been such a crapshoot since perhaps Peyton Manning in 1998, so it's no wonder he got all the hype back then even before when he was only a college freshman.

Even Donovan McNabb was overlooked for Tim Couch back in 1999 for example though McNabb was picked next at #2.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Fri Mar 25, 2011 10:03 pm

http://www.nfl.com/draft/story/09000d5d ... -draft-low

Another fine article on the matter above and why

1) The NFL teams are taking a very hard look at some NCAA QBs who are mediocre at best in historic terms AND
2) A historic shortage of quarterbacks in the pool who are adaptable and trainable for Canadian football lingers on
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Sat Mar 26, 2011 12:28 pm

Check out these comments by John Elway in that had he been in charge in 2009, it would have been overwhelmingly likely Jay Cutler would not have been traded in 2009 for a bunch of picks plus Kyle Orton.

http://gridironfans.com/forums/latest-n ... raded.html

I see Denver's problem as hardly at all on offence but rather its woeful defence, and the Broncos are shoring that up with this draft and a move to a 4-3 from an awful 3-4. Kyle Orton is more than decent and has plenty of upside too, but these comments suggest that when the Broncos have the chances they will in the end unload all three QBs: Orton, Tebow, and Quinn.

We already know that Elway is not high on Tebow at all, and as for Quinn he was correctly dropped lower by the scouts in the draft years ago and quite apparently since that time not low enough as quite the bust.

Tebow and Quinn would be off to the CFL in my view if it were not for a serious NFL QB shortage that will keep them on the bench as third-stringers somewhere else in the NFL. We'll see in about two years perhaps.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Wed Dec 14, 2011 6:03 pm

Amidst the record-setting pace of 4 NFL QBs now, note the following QBs drafted in the last three years who are at last showing up on the season's stat sheet.

Youthful performance in today's NFL is definitely slim pickin's more than I can remember in awhile.

Of course I think the career potential remains highest with Stafford, Dalton, and Newton in that order. What a bargain the Bengals got too.

The QBs with 3 years experience or less who make the list are listed below in order of QB rating. Matt Stafford is the best of the bunch all the same, and most of these guys otherwise do suck.

TJ Yates and some others have not thrown enough passes to make the NFL season sheet.

I don't expect the trend in the performance of each player to change much for the remainder of the regular season.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats? ... SER_RATING

Matthew Stafford
Tim Tebow
Mark Sanchez
Andy Dalton
Cam Newton
Colt "S---" McCoy
Christian Ponder
Josh Freeman
Sam Bradord
Curtis Painter
Blaine Gabbert
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Wed Dec 21, 2011 9:23 am

Good news is coming in the upcoming draft as stands to be the best QB draft in decades:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/pros ... SX/2012_QB

In short there look to be five QBs who will go in the first round. Amazingly even with the shortage, four went last year with only one who turned out to be first-round material (Cam Newton).

One could argue for all five, or at least four of them, for as much potential as either Newton or Dalton.

Let's note that Dalton in my view has the most potential of these overall from last year, and he was overlooked by anyone honest into the second round behind bust Gabbert, overrated Ponder, and overrated and absolutely mediocre at best Locker.

The five QBs to be selected beat out this group from last year handily, and then underrated guys like Foles and Cousins follow later in projections too.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Thu Dec 22, 2011 5:22 pm

And now it turns out Matt Barkley will stay in school, so we await whether or not Landry Jones will do the same as three others stand for the first round.

http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/ncf/stor ... ing-school

Also I think if Locker and Ponder, both overrated, made the first round last year, Foles and Cousins are way better and could do the same.

That would make at least five QBs in the first round of the NFL Draft 2012 given the shortage if not six.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Mon Jan 16, 2012 11:43 pm

Well, two guys decided to stay in school and one, Tannehill, broke his foot and won't be able to workout normal until March and after the NFL Scouting Combine.

That leaves only two sure-fire first-round prospects and the Matt Flynn sweepstakes for the most part, so it looks like there will be a shortage again. I'm not sold on Foles or Cousins as underrated or at all any more.

Is there another TJ Yates? Here's the list:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/pros ... SX/2012_QB
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Sat Jan 21, 2012 7:36 am

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features ... nts/fa.php

Check out this list of NFL free agents. Here are some observations.

    Chase Daniels will be headed I think somewhere else given that Sean Canfield was re-signed.

    Dennis Dixon remains a big unknown on which another team will take a chance.

    Matt Flynn -- do I need to state the obvious?

    Someone will pick up David Garrard who will probably win the starting job over a young QB

    Do the Chiefs stay with Orton? Why not?

    Another team will pick up Charlie "Clipboard Jesus" Whitehurst

    Jason Campbell -- where will he be next? Does it matter?

    Seneca Wallace is not on this list, but the Browns will draft a QB, likely Robert Griffin III, and let him go.

Of course Drew Brees and Alex Smith will be staying home for bigger money.

Many of the other names are probably going to end up being third-stringers somewhere else or awful back-ups if not out of pro football.
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Thu Feb 16, 2012 8:19 pm

Now there has been almost a 180 in projections on Tannehill as if breaking his foot was the best thing that ever could have happened to him. Here's a great review for and against as I see more guys turn optimistic:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/stor ... ark-debate

Teams have actual or fake interest such that someone will be trading up for him in the first round. He'll be gone well before pick 21.

Note otherwise a fine list of notable NFL free agents with slim and expensive pickings at QB compared to the lone rookie draft pick that merits a first-round pick other than the obvious top two.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8 ... ree-agents

Paolo X wrote:Well, two guys decided to stay in school and one, Tannehill, broke his foot and won't be able to workout normal until March and after the NFL Scouting Combine.

That leaves only two sure-fire first-round prospects and the Matt Flynn sweepstakes for the most part, so it looks like there will be a shortage again. I'm not sold on Foles or Cousins as underrated or at all any more.

Is there another TJ Yates? Here's the list:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/pros ... SX/2012_QB
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Wed Apr 18, 2012 8:34 pm

Now Tannehill is a lock for a top 10 pick.

Otherwise, from this list, here are some interesting new signings of obscure unproven players if not also those who suck.

It's a shame they will make all that money, so what a waste!

Only one, Rex Grossman, is a starter and that baffles me; however, the Redskins will have a new draft pick in likely Robert Griffin III to insert into the mix sooner rather than later. It's too bad because those folks in Washington cannot lose enough in my view.

http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features ... nts/fa.php

Sean Canfield
Rudy Carpenter
David Carr
Kellen Clemens
Drew Stanton
Sage Rosenfels
Chad Henne
Rex Grossman
Brady Quinn
Dan Orlovsky
Josh McCown
Josh X. Johnson
Brian Hoyer
Caleb Hanie
Trent Edwards
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Re: NFL QB Shortage & Moves

by Paolo X » Sat May 12, 2012 7:42 pm

Brandon Weeden appears to have been quite a steal, and he's already the lead contender to start for the Browns:

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d8 ... his-cannon
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